Captain Avgas said:
I doubt that too many more of the uncompleted 86% of RV3s and 73% of RV4s sold will ever fly.
> I mostly agree with you about the RV-3 (as I thought I implied in my previous post) but there are still many RV-4 projects active so I believe those #'s will keep climbing for a long time.
Captain Avgas said:
A sobering consideration however is that of the 27% of RV4s that have been completed...possibly only about half of those were actually completed by the original purchaser...many of the kits have been on-sold, perhaps a number of times.
>I don't know where you got that idea from. I agree that many RV projects (all models included) are completed by the second or even third owner, but 50% is wayyyyy over in my opinion. I am personally familiar with lots of RV projects and I feel quite sure it would even be 25% are finished by second owners.
Captain Avgas said:
Therefore one might conclude that of the builders who actually bought RV4 kits from Vans, probably only about 14% ever completed them. A staggering 86% (we're talking rough numbers here) bombed out. Likewise only about 7% of builders who bought RV3 kits from Vans ever completed them. .
>Way off...see above.
Captain Avgas said:
Today the completion rates are considerably higher due mainly to the QB kits. Even so it still seems likely that only approx one-third of builders who purchase a current model kit from Vans will ever finish it. .
>Again I disagree. I believe QB kits only account for between 15 and 20% of all kits sold.
I believe the completion rate is improving because of big improvements in the kits compared to the RV-3 and 4, and even the RV-6. Also the introduction of things like the firewall fwd kit, etc, which makes the whole process easier for a first time builder.
Captain Avgas said:
There are plenty of guys out there with dreams but seemingly fewer with the time, skills, money.....and the enormous amount of learning capacity, self discipline and perseverance it takes to build a plane.
The pied pipers in the RV fraternity say: "Anyone can build a plane". But of course that's like saying anyone can become a doctor, or an astronaut, or even the president of the US....it's a nice thought...but it aint true.
Call me the Pied Piper then...
(go to
http://www.vansairforce.net/articles/AnRVcanIbuildone.htm for the article I wrote for Doug a few years ago)
People that become Doctors, Astronauts, and even the President of the United States are Anybodys. Just ask them.
Are they someone who learned to apply themselves? Yes! Are they someone with determination? Yes!
I believe these are attributes anyone can develop if they want something bad enough. If you talk to enough RV builders you will realize that a lot of them that have been successful, by all odds, shouldn't have been. But they wanted it bad enough.
Over the years I have seen many builders bail on there projects without ever reaching out for assistance with things that were causing them trouble (I am talking about other than having enough money or time) Even not having enough time or funds should not be enough to stop a project. Many RV projects take 8 to 10 years or more. Yea, it's a long time, but I know a lot of people who have been singing the "I Wish" song for a lot more years than that.
It all depends on how bad you want it...
P.S. Captain Avgas, how about you properly filling out you profile so I know who it is I am disagreeing with?