I know this is a grim topic, but after the recent loss of an RV friend I've been obsessing over the risk factor. As a trained mathematician, I know statistics are very difficult things, and even finding appropriate data can sometimes be impossible. But I wonder how much we can find, and what conclusions we can draw. Lately I feel a very strong need to gain an understanding the risk -to quantify and characterize it.
When I look for aviation stats that I can try to apply to my own operations, I personally don't like the stats "per hour" of operation, for many reasons. I think the risks "per aircraft" make more sense, to me at least. This is the way we think instinctively anyway. When we lose an RV friend, we think this might happen to us, and then take comfort by pointing to our other RV friends who continue to fly without incident.
Anyway, regarding data, here are a few questions:
1) There are over 6600 (?) RVs that have been completed and flown. Probably most of these are actively flying. What would be a good guess, 6000 RVs actively flying in a given year?
2) Do we know how many catastrophic RV accidents occur in a typical year? What about breakdown by model?
3) Of the above, is are there any clear causes that stand-out as leading risk factors? For GA in general, I've heard fuel exhaustion is a leading cause... does that hold true for RVs in particular?
The reason we may tend to obsess about these things sometimes is clear... if we can understand, quantify and characterize the risk, we can better learn to manage and reduce it, and we can also derive some piece of mind. Accidents like the recent one near my home leave a very unsettling feeling that flying is gambling with ones' life, and I want to find a way to reduce that feeling.
When I look for aviation stats that I can try to apply to my own operations, I personally don't like the stats "per hour" of operation, for many reasons. I think the risks "per aircraft" make more sense, to me at least. This is the way we think instinctively anyway. When we lose an RV friend, we think this might happen to us, and then take comfort by pointing to our other RV friends who continue to fly without incident.
Anyway, regarding data, here are a few questions:
1) There are over 6600 (?) RVs that have been completed and flown. Probably most of these are actively flying. What would be a good guess, 6000 RVs actively flying in a given year?
2) Do we know how many catastrophic RV accidents occur in a typical year? What about breakdown by model?
3) Of the above, is are there any clear causes that stand-out as leading risk factors? For GA in general, I've heard fuel exhaustion is a leading cause... does that hold true for RVs in particular?
The reason we may tend to obsess about these things sometimes is clear... if we can understand, quantify and characterize the risk, we can better learn to manage and reduce it, and we can also derive some piece of mind. Accidents like the recent one near my home leave a very unsettling feeling that flying is gambling with ones' life, and I want to find a way to reduce that feeling.