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Van gives us Numbers!!

Ironflight

Ironflight

VAF Moderator / Line Boy
Mentor
How many times have we read speculations on the completion ratios of the RV line? We all know how many planes have flow, but never knew just how many have been started....and many speculate that Van would never tell us...

Well, I got home today, and opened my new RVator to the last page - and what do I see, but the number of "starts" (by model) printed - right there in black and white!! :cool:

Of course, the real conspiracy theorists among us will say that those are the numbers that Van WANTS us to see, and that the truth....is still out there.... :p

RV-3 =1600
RV-4 =4553
RV-6/6A =6681
RV-7/7A =3001
RV-8/8A =2674
RV-9/9A =1522
RV-10 = 704
 
So this means that soon...

Assuming that most of these are still to be built, then within a few years there will be about 20,000 RVs flying...? I want to see one big formation with all of them flying...

I can remember when I started the -7 there were only about 100 flying...
 
Ironflight said:
RV-3 =1600
RV-4 =4553
RV-6/6A =6681
RV-7/7A =3001
RV-8/8A =2674
RV-9/9A =1522
RV-10 = 704
Click to expand...

Keeping in mind that the RV6/RV7 is the same plane (sorry if that offends any one). :rolleyes:

model ........sold................completed............percent complete
RV-3 .........=1600.............228.....................14.25
RV-4 .........=4553.............1219...................26.77
RV-6/7.......=9682.............2544...................26.28
RV-8/8A.....=2674.............686.....................25.65
RV-9/9A.....=1522.............292.....................19.19
RV-10........= 704..............70.......................9.94

What point does this prove?
I don't know, it is just that I have a calculator and I like numbers. :p

Kent
 
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An RV-10 started every 2 days in '06

Angela & I are #519 (purchased at the end of '05). Sounds like the -10 is catchin' on!

Someone have a reference for one of the other models?
 
$$$

I would hazard a guess that Vans does about $30,000 business per plane on average... $30,000 * 20,000 kits = big bucks.
 
OldAndBold said:
I would hazard a guess that Vans does about $30,000 business per plane on average... $30,000 * 20,000 kits = big bucks.
Click to expand...

A "start" probably means a tail kit. So on average I bet it's waaaay less than $30K.
 
$$$...

mgomez said:
A "start" probably means a tail kit. So on average I bet it's waaaay less than $30K.
Click to expand...

I was thinking about the total that will eventually come Vans way when the "starts" (however many that turns out to be) are finally finished.

But at the same time, there are a bunch of people who will ultimately buy the FWF kit, the engine, the avionics, etc, from Vans... those people will probably send upwards of $60,000 Vans way.

I wish I could figure out a way to be that successful in an aviation business!
 
OldAndBold said:
I would hazard a guess that Vans does about $30,000 business per plane on average... $30,000 * 20,000 kits = big bucks.
Click to expand...


And worth every penny, doncha think?
 
Profit

Actually, Van's makes nothing off the kits. All the profit comes from the number of trim tab parts sold. :D

And the 6 and 7 are vastly different.
 
Not so fast

There is a BIG difference between gross sales and net profit. Lets hope Van's keeps selling plenty of tail kits and many of those finish so they stay in business. I would say Van runs a pretty tight ship. Sales and profit are often vastly different.

I want Van's to make a good profit and pay his employees well!!! Would you want a disgruntled worker making YOUR aircraft parts?

Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
 
Yeah, I was gonna say ... there is no way they generate 30K profit from each plane. I bet their margins are pretty slim ... there is a lot of overhead what with the CNC equipment, etc. And I bet they pay a pretty hefty yearly sum for liability insurance!

Thomas
 
cost reality

This post reminds me of a repair I once made to a Super Viking a few years ago. Among other things, I needed to replace the trim tab. Bellanca wanted $4500! I expected it to be a little high but that blew me out of the water. (another factor in outragously high insurance costs).
Fortunately I found a serviceable replacement from salvage for a mere $350. (The insurance adjuster was pleased).
Gents, Dick and everyone at Van's has done and continues to do a great service to all of us within general aviation. Count your blessings and thank those guys for having a successful business. I hope they succeed well into the future.
 
$$$....

Guys -

I was simply commenting on the volume of business, seeing as apparently about 20,000 airplanes might eventually fly as compared to the actual 5000 or so presently flying. Nothing negative was implied or intended.

--JCB
 
I always thought a pretty good indication of Van's markup is what he charges for his polo shirts. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a equivalent quality shirt at a mega-store for less.

It is my understanding that "logo apparel" is a great profit center for many manufacturers in all sorts of industries.

I think I'd buy my polos from Van even if they weren't embroidered.
 
mooovin and shakin'

Good afternoon Gentleman. I was honored to meet the man himself at sun'n'fun last year and I know it must be a strain on him to answer all those questions from everybody, so I thanked him and went on my way.. I said " Thank you sir for changing the face of aviation as we know it and for helping everybody out more than you will ever know." He said thank you and moved on. I dont know if anybody honestly can realize the full effect that Van has had on aviation. The innovation and new product lines and sales of related goods has to be in the multi multi millions.. I dont honestly know if we will ever know the true figure of money spent and lives changed by his simple designs... Anyone care to guess the figure to date people have spent on the aircraft and the associated goods?
"Thanks Van"
Here's to a million sold! (can you imagine that party?! :D )
 
kentb said:
model ....... sold............... completed........... percent complete
RV-3 .........=1600.............228.................... 14.25
RV-4 .........=4553.............1219.................. 26.77
RV-6/7.......=9682.............2544.................. 26.28
RV-8/8A.....=2674.............686.................... 25.65
RV-9/9A.....=1522.............292.................... 19.19
RV-10........= 704..............70...................... 9.94

What point does this prove?
I don't know, it is just that I have a calculator and I like numbers. :p

Kent
Click to expand...
Wow... even the most-completed model has barely a quarter of the kits sold, actually completed or flying. That tells me there's an awful lot of tail kits either collecting dust in attics/basements/garages, taking up space in landfills, or recycled into soda/beer cans. :mad: :( :mad: :(
 
jarhead said:
Wow... even the most-completed model has barely a quarter of the kits sold, actually completed or flying. That tells me there's an awful lot of tail kits either collecting dust in attics/basements/garages, taking up space in landfills, or recycled into soda/beer cans. :mad: :( :mad: :(
Click to expand...
Not really, many of the unfinished kits will be completed, but they haven't yet. For example, my plane isn't counted in the finished category, but gosh darnit it will be this summer.
 
Amazing completion ratio

Could any other kit manufacturer come close to this kind of completion ratio? 25% is really amazing. I doubt 25% of the puzzles sold in the world are completed, much less a project that will take 1000 hours and lots of additional investment.

I'm sure the Van's team is very proud of their completion ratio, as they should be!
 
kentb said:
model ........sold................completed............percent complete
RV-3 .........=1600.............228.....................14.25
RV-4 .........=4553.............1219...................26.77
RV-6/7.......=9682.............2544...................26.28
RV-8/8A.....=2674.............686.....................25.65
RV-9/9A.....=1522.............292.....................19.19
RV-10........= 704..............70.......................9.94


Kent
Click to expand...

I agree with Eric
I don't think this list is a valid representation of the (eventual) completion ratios (except for maybe the RV-3 which by todays RV kit standards, most of the kits sold were closer to plans built).
I think there are easily 2500 RV-6(A) kits still actively under construction.
When they are eventually finished it will push the completion ratio well over 50%. I believe this will be the case for the other models as well though maybe less so for the RV-4 and much less for the RV-3
 
Illusions

rvbuilder2002 said:
I agree with Eric
I don't think this list is a valid representation of the (eventual) completion ratios (except for maybe the RV-3 which by todays RV kit standards, most of the kits sold were closer to plans built).
I think there are easily 2500 RV-6(A) kits still actively under construction.
When they are eventually finished it will push the completion ratio well over 50%. I believe this will be the case for the other models as well though maybe less so for the RV-4 and much less for the RV-3
Click to expand...

I doubt that too many more of the uncompleted 86% of RV3s and 73% of RV4s sold will ever fly.

A sobering consideration however is that of the 27% of RV4s that have been completed...possibly only about half of those were actually completed by the original purchaser...many of the kits have been on-sold, perhaps a number of times.

Therefore one might conclude that of the builders who actually bought RV4 kits from Vans, probably only about 14% ever completed them. A staggering 86% (we're talking rough numbers here) bombed out. Likewise only about 7% of builders who bought RV3 kits from Vans ever completed them

Today the completion rates are considerably higher due mainly to the QB kits. Even so it still seems likely that only approx one-third of builders who purchase a current model kit from Vans will ever finish it.

There are plenty of guys out there with dreams but seemingly fewer with the time, skills, money.....and the enormous amount of learning capacity, self discipline and perserverance it takes to build a plane.

The pied pipers in the RV fraternity say: "Anyone can build a plane". But of course that's like saying anyone can become a doctor, or an astronaut, or even the president of the US....it's a nice thought...but it aint true.
 
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RV-4 lot harder to build!

Captain Avgas said:
I doubt that too many more of the uncompleted 86% of RV3s and 73% of RV4s sold will ever fly.

. . .

Therefore one might conclude that of the builders who actually bought RV4 kits from Vans, probably only about 14% ever completed them. A staggering 86% (we're talking rough numbers here) bombed out. Likewise only about 7% of builders who bought RV3 kits from Vans ever completed them
.
Click to expand...

I have been struggling with getting the QB 7A built for over two years now - I can't imagine what it would be like if the holes weren't prepunched, etc...

But of those kits that go incomplete, many were probably not QB, so a lot less money is being lost for a person to walk away from it. And, they were bought years ago when the prices were much lower...
 
Captain Avgas said:
The pied pipers in the RV fraternity say: "Anyone can build a plane". But of course that's like saying anyone can become a doctor, or an astronaut, or even the president of the US....it's a nice thought...but it aint true.
Click to expand...

I beg to differ...

Just because they DIDN'T finish building their plane doesn't mean they COULDN'T have finished.

Building a homebuilt requires discipline, persistence and commitment. Anyone can apply these attributes. It is up to them.

There are often very good reasons not to. Having family obligations that don't allow you to commit the time required is a prime example (and that is OK), but that doesn't mean that you can't do it. The same goes for becoming a doctor or astronaut (I'll leave out President of the US, because I believe that has more to do with pocketbook and personal and family connections).

Building a plane is not the realm of superhumans, it is a difficult, but very achievable goal for anyone willing to steadfastly refuse to give up.

"Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
- Calvin Coolidge (1872 - 1933)
 
Playing with words

java said:
I beg to differ...

Just because they DIDN'T finish building their plane doesn't mean they COULDN'T have finished.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry, but it is an empirical fact that if they "didn't finish bulding" it could ONLY be because they "couldn't finish building" .....for one reason or another (lack of time, lack of money, lack of perseverance...WHATEVER). It's absolutely meaningless to suggest otherwise. :rolleyes:

The completion figures are the completion figures ...everything else is just feelgood nonsense. :p

Only about 14% of guys who bought an RV4 directly from Vans ever completed it. THAT's the bottom line.

Of all the guys who buy an RV empennage kit from Vans this year, only about 1/3 will complete the plane. THAT'S the bottom line.

In reality the above figures are probably flattering because they include all planes that eventually fly...but without regard to quality or airworthiness.

If I was a cynic I'd suggest that although 1/3 of the guys who buy an empennage kit directly from Vans this year might produce a flying plane it might be reasonable to assume that the number who are capable of producing a reasonable quality plane will be a somewhat lesser figure.

As they say: Many are called but few are chosen.

Now I'm going to step into my Nomex flameproof suit.
 
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But what I'd really like to know about is...

Why is it that so many people who do complete an airplane turn right around often after less than 100 hours of flying time and sell the RV??? Look at the ads of RVs for sale and so many of them have barely enough hours on them to complete flight testing. Why is that? Do people build the airplane and then decide after flying it that it isn't the airplane for them? It doesn't seem like a money thing, or is it?
 
OldAndBold said:
Why is it that so many people who do complete an airplane turn right around often after less than 100 hours of flying time and sell the RV??? Look at the ads of RVs for sale and so many of them have barely enough hours on them to complete flight testing. Why is that? Do people build the airplane and then decide after flying it that it isn't the airplane for them? It doesn't seem like a money thing, or is it?
Click to expand...

You raised an interesting point. It seems like there are 3 kinds of people who build aircraft; people who love to build, people who love to fly, and people who love both equally. Seems like alot of those <1000hr aircraft were probably built by people who enjoy the building process the most and likely are selling their project to start another, etc.
My 2 cents.
 
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Captain Avgas said:
I'm sorry, but it is an empirical fact that if they "didn't finish bulding" it could ONLY be because they "couldn't finish building" .....for one reason or another (lack of time, lack of money, lack of perseverance...WHATEVER). It's absolutely meaningless to suggest otherwise. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I would have to agree, there really is no practical difference between "did not" and "could not". I'm a college prof working with hordes of young people who after each exam go on and on about what score they "could" have gotten, had they studied more, eaten a better breakfast, said the right magic incantation, etc. As a matter of fact, I once had a rather rotund female student insist quite confidently that she "could" run a mile in under 4 minutes!! When several male track team members in the class pointed out to her that NO woman has EVER run a sub-four-minute mile, she said that they just hadn't been "given" the chance. Given the chance? To run?? Gimme a break. It's a daily battle to convince students that what matters to folks (other than your parents) is what you actually produce, not what you think you could've produced. While I don't have kids myself, I'm sure that if I did I'd think that even their turds deserved to be framed, but I think that instead of telling them that they can be whatever they "want" to be, I'd go with "You can accomplish whatever you're prepared to pay the price for".
 
OldAndBold said:
Why is it that so many people who do complete an airplane turn right around often after less than 100 hours of flying time and sell the RV??? Look at the ads of RVs for sale and so many of them have barely enough hours on them to complete flight testing. Why is that? Do people build the airplane and then decide after flying it that it isn't the airplane for them? It doesn't seem like a money thing, or is it?
Click to expand...

I think it boils down to the fact that the only people capable of actually finishing one of these things are people who LOVE building. There's no way love of flying will keep you going through all the setbacks unless you also really enjoy the process of creating. Once the bird is flying, they get restless and need another project, but where will the money come from? Hmm...
 
Captain Avgas said:
I doubt that too many more of the uncompleted 86% of RV3s and 73% of RV4s sold will ever fly.
Click to expand...

> I mostly agree with you about the RV-3 (as I thought I implied in my previous post) but there are still many RV-4 projects active so I believe those #'s will keep climbing for a long time.


Captain Avgas said:
A sobering consideration however is that of the 27% of RV4s that have been completed...possibly only about half of those were actually completed by the original purchaser...many of the kits have been on-sold, perhaps a number of times.
Click to expand...



>I don't know where you got that idea from. I agree that many RV projects (all models included) are completed by the second or even third owner, but 50% is wayyyyy over in my opinion. I am personally familiar with lots of RV projects and I feel quite sure it would even be 25% are finished by second owners.


Captain Avgas said:
Therefore one might conclude that of the builders who actually bought RV4 kits from Vans, probably only about 14% ever completed them. A staggering 86% (we're talking rough numbers here) bombed out. Likewise only about 7% of builders who bought RV3 kits from Vans ever completed them. .
Click to expand...



>Way off...see above.


Captain Avgas said:
Today the completion rates are considerably higher due mainly to the QB kits. Even so it still seems likely that only approx one-third of builders who purchase a current model kit from Vans will ever finish it. .
Click to expand...



>Again I disagree. I believe QB kits only account for between 15 and 20% of all kits sold.
I believe the completion rate is improving because of big improvements in the kits compared to the RV-3 and 4, and even the RV-6. Also the introduction of things like the firewall fwd kit, etc, which makes the whole process easier for a first time builder.


Captain Avgas said:
There are plenty of guys out there with dreams but seemingly fewer with the time, skills, money.....and the enormous amount of learning capacity, self discipline and perseverance it takes to build a plane.

The pied pipers in the RV fraternity say: "Anyone can build a plane". But of course that's like saying anyone can become a doctor, or an astronaut, or even the president of the US....it's a nice thought...but it aint true.
Click to expand...



Call me the Pied Piper then...
(go to http://www.vansairforce.net/articles/AnRVcanIbuildone.htm for the article I wrote for Doug a few years ago)

People that become Doctors, Astronauts, and even the President of the United States are Anybodys. Just ask them.
Are they someone who learned to apply themselves? Yes! Are they someone with determination? Yes!
I believe these are attributes anyone can develop if they want something bad enough. If you talk to enough RV builders you will realize that a lot of them that have been successful, by all odds, shouldn't have been. But they wanted it bad enough.
Over the years I have seen many builders bail on there projects without ever reaching out for assistance with things that were causing them trouble (I am talking about other than having enough money or time) Even not having enough time or funds should not be enough to stop a project. Many RV projects take 8 to 10 years or more. Yea, it's a long time, but I know a lot of people who have been singing the "I Wish" song for a lot more years than that.

It all depends on how bad you want it...

P.S. Captain Avgas, how about you properly filling out you profile so I know who it is I am disagreeing with? ;)
 
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FlyerJumper said:
Angela & I are #519 (purchased at the end of '05). Sounds like the -10 is catchin' on!

Someone have a reference for one of the other models?
Click to expand...

I bought my rv-4 tail kit Dec. 30th 2004 and I'm #4463. If 4553 have been sold, that's still 90 kits in a little over 2 years! I bet alot of those -4 kits have been or will be turned into a rocket, and vans is never notified when they're flying. Just a thought.
 
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A secret

OldAndBold said:
Why is it that so many people who do complete an airplane turn right around often after less than 100 hours of flying time and sell the RV??? Look at the ads of RVs for sale and so many of them have barely enough hours on them to complete flight testing. Why is that? Do people build the airplane and then decide after flying it that it isn't the airplane for them? It doesn't seem like a money thing, or is it?
Click to expand...

What an excellent question. I'm sure many builders and prospective builders will have noticed and been intrigued by the fact that so many very low time RVs get flogged off (a few hundred hours or less).

In reality there will be many reasons why this is so.....but I'll tell you just ONE of them. It's a secret so you mustn't tell anyone.

Some first time RV builders simply don't feel safe in the plane that they have completed.

This is inevitable when you get people who can't drive a straight nail learning to build a plane using the actual plane as the practice material. Also, complying with aviation best practices and coming up to speed in a short time frame can be almost impossible for builders who are not prepared to enter into a VERY intense self-education process.

The end result is that as the project draws to a conclusion some builders become disenchanted with all the skeletons they know they have rattling around in the closet. So they sell all the skeletons and promise themselves to build a better plane next time.

But ssshhhhh, don't mention this in public.....there are those in the RV fraternity who want to believe that EVERY RV is built to the standard of a certificated plane or better and they regard any comment to the contrary as being akin to heresy. And in fact some RVs are truly glorious works of art exhibiting enviable levels of workmanship and knowledge....but you'll be struggling to find too many of those coming up for sale with less than 300 hours on the Hobbs.

Bob Barrow
RV7A
Finishing
 
I'm calling B.S. on this one. The guys who "can't drive a nail straight" never make it past the tail kit. I honestly think that most who even start these projects have considerable skills, and that those who finish are usually guys who've been gearheads most of their lives. I know that Van's literature sometimes makes it sound as if building a plane is as easy as assembling a desk from Ikea, but anybody who looks even casually at the plans quickly realizes otherwise.

Just out of curiosity, is this simply your theory or have builders/sellers actually admitted this to you?
 
Interesting theory, my particular believe is that some people just dig building.

My particular case...about 20 minutes after flying my -6 for the first time I thought, "I'd like to build a -4 now. I don't like looking over the right seat very much." I just don't have the funds and I thought a building break would be nice for a few years. But, the desire was there right after first flight is my point - if I had the $$$ sitting around I probably would have ordered a tail kit.

Interesting to ponder all this. I'm sure there are opinions (just like workmanship standards) that run the entire spectrum.

b,
d
 
szicree said:
I'm calling B.S. on this one. The guys who "can't drive a nail straight" never make it past the tail kit. I honestly think that most who even start these projects have considerable skills, and that those who finish are usually guys who've been gearheads most of their lives. I know that Van's literature sometimes makes it sound as if building a plane is as easy as assembling a desk from Ikea, but anybody who looks even casually at the plans quickly realizes otherwise.

Just out of curiosity, is this simply your theory or have builders/sellers actually admitted this to you?
Click to expand...
I'm certainly not the gearhead type and was able to complete an airplane, but I understand the sentiment.

I know someone who called Van's, trying to access their ability. They were asked if they change the oil in their car. I don't think that is a realistic test, but they were also able to complete an airplane.
 
Captain Avgas said:
Some first time RV builders simply don't feel safe in the plane that they have completed.
Click to expand...

And this is PRECISELY the reason I'm building my own, instead of buying one.
 
OK, then I'll be fine...

Captain Avgas said:
What an excellent question. I'm sure many builders and prospective builders will have noticed and been intrigued by the fact that so many very low time RVs get flogged off (a few hundred hours or less).

. . .

And in fact some RVs are truly glorious works of art exhibiting enviable levels of workmanship and knowledge....but you'll be struggling to find too many of those coming up for sale with less than 300 hours on the Hobbs.

Bob Barrow
RV7A
Finishing
Click to expand...

OK, in my case I will be fine as long as I don't really need the left side of the horizontal stablizer. That is where I learned to rivet... :eek:
 
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DeltaRomeo said:
Interesting theory, my particular believe is that some people just dig building.
Click to expand...

That's undoubtedly true Doug. But enjoying building doesn't necessarily equate with producing good workmanship. And building a poor quality plane can in itself be motivation for wanting to build a second one.

I know of several guys who seemed to enjoy the building process (at least that's what they said)...but they built really terrible planes all the same.

For some builders the excitement of quickly throwing things together and seeing that first plane take shape is more emotionally rewarding than slowly honing and crafting the project.

It may be a coincidence but I find that these same guys are now all talking about building another plane. I think I sense regret that they did not build their planes to the best of their abilities (I suspect there might be some concerns about safety issues as well but no-one's likely to 'fess up when they might be putting their plane on the market).

On the other hand, the works of art....well, the owners just never seem to want to part with them.

It's an interesting topic.

Cheers Bob Barrow
RV7A Finishing
 
Just Catching Up....

Hmmm....it's fun to come back to a thread you started a few days ago when you've been off line since then!

A lot of interesting points, but let me make one about statistics and data. In this case, the ONLY new DATA that has been given us is the number of kits sold. For kits that are no longer sold, we can possibly make some suppositions about how many will ever be completed....but Bob, I have to call a delay of game penalty on your suggestion that because an RV-8 kit has not yet been completed, that it will NEVER be completed, I can't say that it will, and more than you can say that it won't. One that was sold last month is counted in the "not yet complete" column, yet unless it was built by my thought experiment "one day airplane" builders, it probably will be a couple years before its first flight.

I'm not saying for sure that you are wrong Bob....simply saying that the data in evidence is insufficient to draw your conclusion....

Paul
 
Misquoted once again

Ironflight said:
...but Bob, I have to call a delay of game penalty on your suggestion that because an RV-8 kit has not yet been completed, that it will NEVER be completed.

Paul
Click to expand...

Paul my good chum, I never said anything of the sort. In fact I never even mentioned the RV8 in my email. I referred only to the RV3 and RV4 because I believe that those models are now so dated that we can assume that the completion figures will not grow significantly. In that case we see completion figures of 14 % for the RV3 and 27% for the RV4.

My best guess (and like you, I'm only guessing here) is that based on these numbers and considering improvements in the kits (and QB kits) we can probably expect the completion figures for the current models to be around 50%.

However when prospective builders want to know about completion figures they do so because they are purely interested in the probability of THEM completing a project.

In that event the completion figures are misleading. As I suggested, the chances of a current model RV being completed may be of the order of 50% (but that figure reflects the fact that many projects pass through multiple builders)...but the chances of any one individual buying a current kit from Vans and completing it is significantly lower than that (probably around 33%...but guessing again).

And the chances of some-one buying a kit from Vans and producing a QUALITY flying plane is obviously a lower number again.



Cheers Bob Barrow
 
Just Guessin'

You're correct Bob in that if we are both guessing', the RV-3 and -4 numbers are more likely to tell us something.....

And yup, any conclusions that we draw from this limited data set are all just guesses!

Now finish that 7A so we can add you to the "win" column! :D

Paul
 
And yup, any conclusions that we draw from this limited data set are all just guesses!
Click to expand...

Just to add another guess-point to the guesstimates, I looked at the loosely organized membership roll of the Tennessee Valley RV Builders Group (http://www.tvrvbg.org) and counted 72 RV projects. Of those, 33 are now flying. Of the remainder, there are less than half a dozen that I would consider unlikely to be completed by the original owner.

In our area we have seen a very high completion ratio of original owners during the RV population boom we have experienced since the late '90's. I have no idea if our group is an accurate representation of what is happening in the rest of the RV universe. I suspect (guess) that the completion rate of the newer kits will be higher than the legacy models.

In any case, Vans' is an unprecedented success story in the world of custom aircraft.
 
Unfortunatly we have a failure of needed data points.

I took over 5 years to complete my RV9A and I think that my time to completion was average or even above average. I bought the 322nd RV9 tail kit and was the 220th or there abouts RV9 flying.

What we don't know is how many RV9 were flying that didn't report to Vans.
How many RV9 tail kits were no longer available to be completed (IE destroyed in some form).

Things happen that skew the stats.

I know of RV3 kits being started in the last couple of years that will be flying this year.
I know of an RV6 tail kit purchased a couple years ago that was use for practice and then the guy started work on a RV9 kit. Don't think that the RV6 tail kit will ever be completed.
I have heard of a couple of project that were looked at for being purchased and the purchaser decided against the buy because of bad construction.

If we only had more data points to work from we could make better education guesses what all this means.

How many wing kits have been sold for each model?
How many fuse. kits have been sold for each model?
How many finish kits have been sold for each model?
How many tail kits in the last year for each model?

Kent
 
RV-3,4, & 6 numbers

In reality, Van's doesn't have a real count on the number of kits sold for the -3,4, & 6. In the early days, serial numbers were issued when they sold just the plans. Lots of those plans sales never turned into kit purchases.

Also, the number of completed and flying planes are those only that Van's knows about. Van's speculates that there are between 100 and 200 more flying planes out there somewhere.

Bruce Reynolds
Flying RV-6A #21117
 
Bruce Reynolds said:
In reality, Van's doesn't have a real count on the number of kits sold for the -3,4, & 6. In the early days, serial numbers were issued when they sold just the plans. Lots of those plans sales never turned into kit purchases.

Also, the number of completed and flying planes are those only that Van's knows about. Van's speculates that there are between 100 and 200 more flying planes out there somewhere.

Bruce Reynolds
Flying RV-6A #21117
Click to expand...


If that's the case, then we really don't know the number of starts, do we Paul? What fascinates me, even more than the topic, is why people want to chastise Bob for broaching this subject. This forum would be so much more enjoyable without the constant background noise of the thought police steering the conversation.

For whatever reason, this thread started, and should be allowed to proceed to its natural end, barring rule violations.
 
Finish kit numbers

It would be interesting to see numbers for finish kits sold.

That would come close to counting the in-process ones that are committed $-wise.

gil A
 
Customer numbers

Bruce Reynolds said:
In reality, Van's doesn't have a real count on the number of kits sold for the -3,4, & 6. In the early days, serial numbers were issued when they sold just the plans. Lots of those plans sales never turned into kit purchases.
....
Bruce Reynolds
Flying RV-6A #21117
Click to expand...
Bruce.... I'm not sure if this is really the case.

Van issued a plan number, but this number also became your Vans customer number. I'm sure their records would track who bought more than plans.

Yes.. this won't cover the completely scratch-built planes, but there are very few of them out there...

gil A
 
Yukon,

I don?t think there is a problem here with the Van?s RV thought police vis-?-vis Captain Avgas?s comments, even though to some they may seem rather negative.

I suspect the good Captain is going through a difficult patch in his life, probably having difficulty finishing his RV7.

A few weeks ago he got very worked up on the UK RV forum about the fact people were not using fireproof seat covers in their RVs. When I asked if he always wore fireproof trousers when he flew in an airplane he dropped the subject.

Now he seems to be rather worked up about empennage completions and even what he seems to consider the poor quality of most finished RVs.

Vans deliberately makes it inexpensive to start the construction of the airplane by allowing one to start on the empennage without buying the total kit. Because of this advantage many people try their hand at building an airplane and many decide for whatever reason it is not their cup of tea. Fortunately there is a decent market for empennage kits that have not been completed or started and so much of the initial financial investment is recuperated. There is hence no need to takes ones uncompleted kit to the dumpster and see it carted off to be recycled into pots and pans.

I don?t really see the importance of whether or not the initial empennage purchaser finishes the airplane any more than someone who decides takes up golf and then sells his set of clubs before becoming a champion. People can and should decide what is best for them

On the issue of the quality of the finished and flying RVs it is probably a bit unrealistic to expect a first time aircraft builder to make as good a product as say Cessna or Piper who have professional engineers and have built thousands of aircraft. However I suspect that the vast majority of RVs that are flying are safe. Personally I have never heard of an RV coming apart in the air unless it has been subject to overstressing during aerobatic flight.

So in conclusion to the good Captain I would say chin up, soldier on. I am sure that when you eventually finish your RV7 you will be delighted with your airplane even if your building was less than perfect. You will be able to count yourself amongst that select breed of men who have purchased an empennage kit and seen the project through to completion.

Barry RV6A F-PRVM
 
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Barry said:
A few weeks ago he got very worked up on the UK RV forum about the fact people were not using fireproof seat covers in their RVs. When I asked if he always wore fireproof trousers when he flew in an airplane he dropped the subject.
Barry RV6A F-PRVM
Click to expand...

This is so sad. In the UK forum I pointed out that many experimental builders were obviously completely unaware of the fire hazard involved in using automotive seat fabrics in their projects. I pointed out that the auto fabric fire standards such as FMVSS-302 were virtually useless in terms of flame retardency and that most auto fabrics were highly flammable synthetics. I recommended Oregon Aero or Classic Aero for seats because they used treated wool fabrics that met or exceeded FAR 25.853 which is the aviation standard.

It was a constructive comment aimed at enlightenment on a serious subject that is generally not well understood by Experimental builders.

For my trouble Barry scoffed at the information and asked sarcastically if I wore fireproof trousers. As usual he didn't even give his name.....AND HE WONDERS WHY I DIDN'T RESPOND!!!

Like I said...it's so sad.
 
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