Captain Avgas
Well Known Member
For those of you who are interested in the facts of GA flight safety beyond the pure emotion of dissecting the latest spate of aircraft accidents I would refer you to the NTSB statistics for Accidents and Fatalities for US General Aviation 1986 through 2005.
http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/Table10.htm
These figures indicate quite clearly that the GA fatality rate has been amazingly consistent over a period of 20 years. It has averaged 1.49 deaths per 100,000 hours over that period and for the last year on record (2005) it was 1.31. The worst year (1986) was only +0.24 over the average and the best year (1999) was only -0.33 under the average. In statistical terms that is a very narrow mean distribution.
There is absolutely no indication whatsoever of a deterioration in the fatality rate over the 20 year period. In fact if anything there has been a trend for a very slight improvement indicating that pilots are progressively adopting safer flying practices or perhaps staying out of trouble with newer technology.
There is a possibility that there may be some further small gains to be made but the data does suggest that we may currently be close to the bottom line.
Some people may feel predisposed to argue that even one aviation death is too many but commonsense dictates that flying has undeniable intrinsic risk and there will always be an inevitable attrition rate.
Whether the attrition rate as indicated in the NTSB data represents a "safe" or an "unsafe" number is purely a matter of personal speculation. Only one thing is certain...the rate is not rising.
Of course it might be possible that the figure of 1.49 might be reduced by regulations that curtailed higher risk aviation activities. This philosophy taken to its extreme arrives at the indisputable conclusion that if we have in fact zero hours flown we will surely then have zero fatalities.
I am simply cautioning that if we as pilots continue to proclaim that we believe there is a safety problem in GA then we should not be surprised if eventually the public comes to believe it too. In that event we may not end up with less fatalities...but we are certain to end up with more restrictions.
Anyway happy new year. Fly safely in 2007 and try not to be part of that 1.49 figure.
Regards Bob Barrow
http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/Table10.htm
These figures indicate quite clearly that the GA fatality rate has been amazingly consistent over a period of 20 years. It has averaged 1.49 deaths per 100,000 hours over that period and for the last year on record (2005) it was 1.31. The worst year (1986) was only +0.24 over the average and the best year (1999) was only -0.33 under the average. In statistical terms that is a very narrow mean distribution.
There is absolutely no indication whatsoever of a deterioration in the fatality rate over the 20 year period. In fact if anything there has been a trend for a very slight improvement indicating that pilots are progressively adopting safer flying practices or perhaps staying out of trouble with newer technology.
There is a possibility that there may be some further small gains to be made but the data does suggest that we may currently be close to the bottom line.
Some people may feel predisposed to argue that even one aviation death is too many but commonsense dictates that flying has undeniable intrinsic risk and there will always be an inevitable attrition rate.
Whether the attrition rate as indicated in the NTSB data represents a "safe" or an "unsafe" number is purely a matter of personal speculation. Only one thing is certain...the rate is not rising.
Of course it might be possible that the figure of 1.49 might be reduced by regulations that curtailed higher risk aviation activities. This philosophy taken to its extreme arrives at the indisputable conclusion that if we have in fact zero hours flown we will surely then have zero fatalities.
I am simply cautioning that if we as pilots continue to proclaim that we believe there is a safety problem in GA then we should not be surprised if eventually the public comes to believe it too. In that event we may not end up with less fatalities...but we are certain to end up with more restrictions.
Anyway happy new year. Fly safely in 2007 and try not to be part of that 1.49 figure.
Regards Bob Barrow
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