Agree 100%...adhesives would be a good way to fix in my opinion. Number of airplanes flying with nothing but adhesives bonding ribs to skins with 50+ years of service. Grummans, Beech Siearra's and Musketeers etc.
Aaaand it's gone.
Joke aside (or is it?), for me, unfortunately this is probably the nail in the coffin. With all the price hikes, building my RV8 was already gradually becoming unaffordable. With whatever is coming, I fully expect I will be priced out. And the resale value of the tools/kits will take a hit as well, as I imagine many builders are like me and will abandon their project, willingly or unwillingly. I bought tools with the underlying assumption that they would hold their value reasonably well. I am not so sure now. This is just really bad for everyone. We are witnessing the worse case scenario unfold before our eyes.
I am hoping for a miracle but I am under no illusion. What a shame. It was a nice dream.
….(snip)….The sooner we the builders all realize that the best option for us is to fork over extra cash and pay a premium on the kits we have on order - that those orders will not be delivered at the quoted prices and terms one way or another - the better long term for all of us.
In this situation, it’s maybe one thing to break a price contract with people who have kits on order but who actually haven’t received said kits yet. It’s a completely different situation for those people who already have their kits and just need replacement parts. How should this be handled? Should these people be required to repurchase all of the parts again? Should they get a discount on the parts?….or would they have to purchase the parts at the new higher price?
As an example, I see that you’re building a 10. You have your empennage kit in hand and waiting on your QB wings and fuselage. How would you suggest handling the cost involved in replacing the parts in your empennage kit? How would you want your QB wings and fuselage handled? I’m sure you would want your new QB kits to be LCP free….especially if you had to pay more for them than what you were quoted.
I can see maybe biting the bullet and paying a certain amount more for parts and/or kits that you’re making a fresh new order on, but that doesn’t address kits that people already have in hand.
Now I’ll use myself as an example. I have a complete -14 QB kit sitting in the hangar. I literally have everything sitting here that’s needed to build a complete airplane. What should I do? I’m completely invested in this project. How should people like me be dealt with? Let’s say I suck it up and basically buy a new empennage out of my own pocket. Then what? I still have a QB fuselage and wings sitting here. What do I do with them? What about the shipping cost involved….that I’ve already paid for?
I guess what I’m trying to say is that increasing prices is one thing….the free market will determine the breaking point, but increasing prices doesn’t address those of us who are currently affected….including yourself.
Not quite. Based on the photos in the original thread, the HAZ looks like it can be larger than the next size rivet. Parts that are already dimpled may have cracks that extend beyond the visible HAZ. And there is also the problem of the "notch" on some holes because the tooling path started outside the hole and not inside the hole.How about producing over size rivets just a little larger diameter than 3/32 with the same size head. Not an oops rivet. This would allow for reaming the Laser cut holes enough to remove the heat effected zone. This would save the LCP’s.
In this situation, it’s maybe one thing to break a price contract with people who have kits on order but who actually haven’t received said kits yet. It’s a completely different situation for those people who already have their kits and just need replacement parts. How should this be handled? Should these people be required to repurchase all of the parts again? Should they get a discount on the parts?….or would they have to purchase the parts at the new higher price?
As an example, I see that you’re building a 10. You have your empennage kit in hand and waiting on your QB wings and fuselage. How would you suggest handling the cost involved in replacing the parts in your empennage kit? How would you want your QB wings and fuselage handled? I’m sure you would want your new QB kits to be LCP free….especially if you had to pay more for them than what you were quoted.
I can see maybe biting the bullet and paying a certain amount more for parts and/or kits that you’re making a fresh new order on, but that doesn’t address kits that people already have in hand.
Now I’ll use myself as an example. I have a complete -14 QB kit sitting in the hangar. I literally have everything sitting here that’s needed to build a complete airplane. What should I do? I’m completely invested in this project. How should people like me be dealt with? Let’s say I suck it up and basically buy a new empennage out of my own pocket. Then what? I still have a QB fuselage and wings sitting here. What do I do with them? What about the shipping cost involved….that I’ve already paid for?
I guess what I’m trying to say is that increasing prices is one thing….the free market will determine the breaking point, but increasing prices doesn’t address those of us who are currently affected….including yourself.
Some real numbers for reference/consideration: I have the SB wing, SB fuselage, and empennage kits for an RV-14A. There are a total of 317 LCP in my kits. The cost of those parts as of 8/15/2023 is $4,430.17. 122 LCP are red/yellow and total $1,719.04 of the $4,430.17. The remaining 195 LCP (2,711.23) are blue/green. Tax and shipping are not included.
I have been patient, and I am still trying to be. It hasn’t been easy, and yesterday made it far more difficult. I want Van’s to survive, but I can’t help but think the folks attempting to save the company won’t give a darn about me in the final accounting. I hope I’m wrong, but I certainly won’t bank on it.
I wouldn’t like it, but I could absorb the price of the “red” replacement parts and probably live with the “blue/green” parts….but I’m still stuck with QB kits with parts that are entombed within. So basically, I’m even deeper in the hole because I could very likely have to completely dismantle my QB kits to make the repairs. I know this is still a lot of early speculation and hopefully a better solution will be realized, but it’s all very frustrating to say the least.
One thing that I hope comes out of Van's message, and the comments on this thread, that in my mind was/is lacking in the other thread on the LCP problem is, PUT YOURSELF IN THEIR SHOES.
I talked with Greg Hughes a few weeks ago, and I tell you, you could hear the fatigue and the demoralization in his voice. He (the whole company really) has been living this LCP problem for over six months now, with no clear end in sight.
The engineering aspects of the problem are much better in hand now with the extensive, thorough (may I say exhaustive) testing they have done. They have done enough to establish with confidence that the airplanes built from their kits are safe and durable. But the production and customer-service aspects are still daunting. Both from a tangible costs standpoint (scrapping bad inventory, figuring out what to do with QBs that have been shipped back, and figuring out how to deal with each class of customer who has parts, customer-assembled components, and QB components) PLUS the intangible costs standpoint (customer satisfaction, reputation, etc).
I hope you all can imagine and empathize with the toll this all is taking on the leadership and all the employees at the company. Consider the toll of high blood pressure, sleepless nights, families worrying about their livelihoods, etc.
There were some comments in the 'other' thread about the problem stemming from Vans "chasing profits". I find this comment rather disingenuous. When their kit-order rate almost doubled at about the beginning of the Covid pandemic (just like many other DIY industries), they did their best to respond to the customer demand, to keep their customers happy and maintain their strong reputation in the kit-airplane market place for reasonable delivery times, delivering what they promise, at reasonable prices. The fact that they got caught in a trap of 3rd-party production parts not meeting quality standards is a hard lesson, but it is pretty unfair to challenge their motivations.
In this thread I see a spectrum of responses from "I'm all in to support Vans, what can I do to help?" to "well, business is business, and if they can't fix this, they don't deserve to survive." No doubt that the real business world is a cold and unforgiving place. But I think to most all of us, Vans is much more than a business. They are a huge contributor to what is at least a community and maybe even a family.
Put yourself in their shoes.
The fact that they got caught in a trap of 3rd-party production parts not meeting quality standards is a hard lesson...
I dont see Vans dropping any models, especially the RV9a. I see them de risking their portfolio and dropping the quick builds for a while. The quick build rework from the primer issue seems to have started the financial issues, along with the hugh increase in shipping costs.My RV-9A project is fairly minimally affected by LCPs just a few parts in the wing, elevator and rudder and the only ones I have riveted are the rudder. My biggest concern is that if Vans restructures that they might discontinue the RV-9 and I wouldn't be able to get the fuselage and finishing kits. This is a very large financial investment for me and I really hesitate to invest further until I know for sure I am going to be able to finish the project. I really want to finish. I don't have the budget to restart on a -14 especially if the prices go up. I am going to go ahead and finish the wing as far as I can for now but I am not going to buy the autopilot servos and engine core until I know for sure I will be able to buy the kits. If I am unable to finish it could be years before I am able to save enough money to build something else. So I am definitely a bit frustrated.
I find it surprising how attitudes have changed over the years.
My first investment in Van's products was 34 years ago, 4 aeroplanes later I remain a great fan of what they do and would be prepared to invest/give another chunk of cash to ensure the company survives and I can continue to fly and build in the future.
For me this this is not a simple vendor/purchaser relationship.
When I bought my first kit there were many companies popping up, and disappearing nearly as quickly. Quality was variable. Honesty in marketing materials was very variable. Van's was different. Their marketing materials were accurate. The quality of the parts were good, and have improved greatly over the years. Van's treated their customers well, customers treated the company well.
If the webstore included $100 for a 1' length of unobtainium with a shipping date of 2100 I would buy one a month for the next several months.
I am not affected by the LCP issue but wonder why some are making such a big noise? Are they now rueing their Covid induced investment and looking for a way to recoup their money? My view is take it on the chin. It is your problem. Go for a walk and calm down, look at what you have, not what you do not. It is in no-one's interest to force the company any further down this road than is necessary.
I see some real worry. I understand if you have deposits or have a partial kits, worried if you will be able finish. This is not a BD5 kind of thing. For those who don't know Bede BD-5 was never a viable kit plane, long story look it up. However Van's is different.
The comment Van made about consultants coming in, hope they are good and give a darn about the customers and aviation. I suspect if Van does not agree he will not bend to pure profit motives.
Bottom line I see good coming out of this, Van's Aircraft becoming stronger in the long term and supporting all their customers now and for generations to come. Keep the faith.
I put in an order in the store this morning. It was in stock. Got an email stating it was shipped,and this was after the announcement. If I recall, vans is inventory rich and cash poor. I would guess that if orders were sent in to them for items in stocks, they will still ship it. The order now says usps has the iitem.
Now if they put in a "gift certificate" where you can get it and not use it for a year, then after a year it would be say 5% more, they could get an influx of cash that they would need to get through this.
Just received the latest version of Sport Aviation. Their financials on page 15 seem to indicate they are flush with (our) money. Who better to float Vans a loan than the organization that has most likely benefited the most from Vans over the past 50 years. Are they listening (reading) ???
Whenever I had a question during the construction of my RV-4, plans #202, Van would often answer the phone. He was patient and thoughtful with his explanations.
An IPO isn’t a workable solution. No investment bank will touch a company using an IPO to stay afloat. I started my career on Wall Street in lower Manhattan in investment banking and I’ve worked on a number of IPOs and mergers.
Go fund me is nice, but the numbers in these stories and threads are very large. 1800 kits affected? Thousands of dollars needed per kit? That’s millions. If we can raise that, fantastic. But I doubt it will happen. I love my plane and I am eternally grateful for the experience that Van’s has given me. But do I want to chip in $5000 to subsidize the cost of someone else’s kit who is buying parts below fair value, just to save the company? I’m sorry, but I’m not that generous.
Maybe a bunch of us could do an “angel round” of financing and buy equity or preferred equity, but there are limits on this. I think you need to be a qualified investor and depending on the legal structure of the ownership, there could be limits on the number of buyers. Startups often do a “friends and family” round of financing before the venture capitalists get involved. A limited number of Vans Air Force people with deep pockets could do this, but Van himself will have to give up a lot of equity.
The two workable solutions are private equity money or bankruptcy / restructuring. Maybe a PE firm comes in and provides working cash flow to rescue the company for a big stake in it. Current orders get saved, but prices will be jacked waaaay up for any order placed tomorrow. The PE firm needs to see a return in a few years, and future orders will give them their profits.
Option two is bankruptcy or restructuring. I haven’t read the terms recently for deposits, but those could be lost. Or bankruptcy could be used to break contracts on placed orders to raise prices retroactively.
If Van’s is losing money on every delivery and has exhausted it’s free cash flow, then one way or another, the solution is to find a way to turn a profit on deliveries for parts already ordered. That’s what the bankruptcy courts are for - no one is happy with the outcome, but maybe the company can be saved if its debts (I’m counting a deposit on a future kit as a debt / liability) can be restructured.
Agree 100%...adhesives would be a good way to fix in my opinion. Number of airplanes flying with nothing but adhesives bonding ribs to skins with 50+ years of service. Grummans, Beech Siearra's and Musketeers etc.
One thing that I hope comes out of Van's message, and the comments on this thread, that in my mind was/is lacking in the other thread on the LCP problem is, PUT YOURSELF IN THEIR SHOES.
I talked with Greg Hughes a few weeks ago, and I tell you, you could hear the fatigue and the demoralization in his voice. He (the whole company really) has been living this LCP problem for over six months now, with no clear end in sight.
The engineering aspects of the problem are much better in hand now with the extensive, thorough (may I say exhaustive) testing they have done. They have done enough to establish with confidence that the airplanes built from their kits are safe and durable. But the production and customer-service aspects are still daunting. Both from a tangible costs standpoint (scrapping bad inventory, figuring out what to do with QBs that have been shipped back, and figuring out how to deal with each class of customer who has parts, customer-assembled components, and QB components) PLUS the intangible costs standpoint (customer satisfaction, reputation, etc).
I hope you all can imagine and empathize with the toll this all is taking on the leadership and all the employees at the company. Consider the toll of high blood pressure, sleepless nights, families worrying about their livelihoods, etc.
There were some comments in the 'other' thread about the problem stemming from Vans "chasing profits". I find this comment rather disingenuous. When their kit-order rate almost doubled at about the beginning of the Covid pandemic (just like many other DIY industries), they did their best to respond to the customer demand, to keep their customers happy and maintain their strong reputation in the kit-airplane market place for reasonable delivery times, delivering what they promise, at reasonable prices. The fact that they got caught in a trap of 3rd-party production parts not meeting quality standards is a hard lesson, but it is pretty unfair to challenge their motivations.
In this thread I see a spectrum of responses from "I'm all in to support Vans, what can I do to help?" to "well, business is business, and if they can't fix this, they don't deserve to survive." No doubt that the real business world is a cold and unforgiving place. But I think to most all of us, Vans is much more than a business. They are a huge contributor to what is at least a community and maybe even a family.
Put yourself in their shoes.
Just for clarity here, I agree 100%. They have made several critical business mistakes here (one not mentioned here is not addressing inflationary increases with their deposit based orders, as well as the decision to burn cash on new equipment). However, I believe that EVERY decision they made was well intentioned and without malice and DEFINATELY not profit chasing. It is very obvious to me that each mistake was due to financial inexperience or that made in combination with a goal of doing the right thing for their customers. Sadly, regardless of intention, in the business world a mistake is a mistake and each brings a consequence. I truly feel bad for Van himself. Can't think of too many people with more integrity. Just wish he had hired better leaders to help him.
They have/had a CFO and I discussed this very issue with him at Sun 'N Fun in 2022. We talked for half hour, but he wasn't hearing what I was saying. I tried to leave him with two takeaways: you can't fund operating expenses with 25% deposits and you need to raise prices. Even without LCP, this outcome was sadly foreseeable with a slowdown.Just for clarity here, I agree 100%. They have made several critical business mistakes here (one not mentioned here is not addressing inflationary increases with their deposit based orders, as well as the decision to burn cash on new equipment). However, I believe that EVERY decision they made was well intentioned and without malice and DEFINATELY not profit chasing. It is very obvious to me that each mistake was due to financial inexperience or that made in combination with a goal of doing the right thing for their customers. Sadly, regardless of intention, in the business world a mistake is a mistake and each brings a consequence. I truly feel bad for Van himself. Can't think of too many people with more integrity. Just wish he had hired better leaders to help him.
Just for clarity here, I agree 100%. They have made several critical business mistakes here (one not mentioned here is not addressing inflationary increases with their deposit based orders, as well as the decision to burn cash on new equipment). However, I believe that EVERY decision they made was well intentioned and without malice and DEFINATELY not profit chasing. It is very obvious to me that each mistake was due to financial inexperience or that made in combination with a goal of doing the right thing for their customers. Sadly, regardless of intention, in the business world a mistake is a mistake and each brings a consequence. I truly feel bad for Van himself. Can't think of too many people with more integrity. Just wish he had hired better leaders to help him.
They have/had a CFO and I discussed this very issue with him at Sun 'N Fun in 2022. We talked for half hour, but he wasn't hearing what I was saying. I tried to leave him with two takeaways: you can't fund operating expenses with 25% deposits and you need to raise prices. Even without LCP, this outcome was sadly foreseeable with a slowdown.
Now he has asked us for a few weeks to sort things out. He earned it. Let's be patient.
I would have no qualms about ordering a new kit now.
Vans has 11,000 dollars of my money towards an engine. If they go bankrupt and I never see that money actually go towards an engine it will be a huge problem not only for me but for anyone who wants to do future business with them. That’s why I feel that it won’t happen. Keeping my fingers crossed and feel very lucky I’m only short the FWF kit at this point and no LCPs.
They have/had a CFO and I discussed this very issue with him at Sun 'N Fun in 2022. We talked for half hour, but he wasn't hearing what I was saying. I tried to leave him with two takeaways: you can't fund operating expenses with 25% deposits and you need to raise prices. Even without LCP, this outcome was sadly foreseeable with a slowdown.
Didn't realize they had one. Pretty sure he won't survive this.
- Mitch Lock has shifted from his prior role as president of the company to the newly-created role of Chief Financial Officer, bringing greater focus to the critical work of managing the company’s financial operations and investments into the future."[/I][/INDENT]
But I was willing to give them money today to buy something [LCPs] that they will eventually replace for free, ....
I'm of the same mind. I'm certainly not as bad off as many, with 49 red/yellow/blue LCPs on the shelf, spread over 19 unique part numbers. But, if given the opportunity, I'd consider spending full retail for replacements and share the financial pain, maybe in consideration for some benefit, like moving closer to the front of the line (think toll lanes on the freeway).
Anyway, I hope Van's, et al., is monitoring this thread, and realizes there are a lot of folks willing to do their part to help if given the opportunity.
Honestly since their engineering is showing the parts are usable they really should just make anyone who wants replacement pay full retail price. They've tested the things to an exhausting extent and their testing shows the parts will last longer than the plane will even with the cracks. I've certainly seen worse stuck in military planes that fly 9Gs and have been for the last 40 years.
Honestly since their engineering is showing the parts are usable they really should just make anyone who wants replacement pay full retail price. They've tested the things to an exhausting extent and their testing shows the parts will last longer than the plane will even with the cracks. I've certainly seen worse stuck in military planes that fly 9Gs and have been for the last 40 years.