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Buyers and Sellers of RVs, both complaining

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BCP Boys

BCP Boys

Well Known Member
So I thought I would put this out because it would be fun to hear other's perspective. Before you completely thrash my post :p please keep in mind I'm only an observer and don't benefit in any way, so here it goes.

A few of my friends who know I've owned a few RVs, amongst several other airplanes, and also know that I'm always "looking at the market" called me for advice on selling / buying an RV. I'm sure many of you watch the market as I do, and have your own thoughts but I thought I would share my experience.

It started right after this year's Oshkosh... at least 5 friends who are either looking to buy an RV or are looking to sell their RV, have called me to ask for my advice on RV pricing (I'm humbled they think so highly of me). Obviously I've tried to help connect some of them that want to buy with those that want to sell but none of the deals worked out. Here is where I noticed that there seems to be a disconnect in the market that didn't exist before Covid times. Prior to Covid and before the supply chain issues that came along with Covid, the RV pricing was pretty straight forward. It was pretty easy to look at build quality, paint, engine size, engine time, prop, avionics and pretty much come up with a fair price that the seller would be happy with, and the buyer would also be happy paying. Then the craziness of 2021/22 happened and prices went through the roof, for everything. But supply chain started to get better and continues to ease off (although not "normal") and some prices for many but not all things started to go back down. Well, here we are late 2023 and it seems like the buyers and sellers couldn't be further apart. I've seen asking prices that are 2X higher than what they were before covid and even 50% higher than what they were last year, but here is the kicker... they aren't selling so the inventory is starting to build up. Then on the opposite side, I see and have heard from friends that are buyers, who believe that prices must go back to pre-covid (which I don't agree with) and are looking for the "deals", which aren't out there.

This isn't rocket science so we don't even need Paul Dye's wisdom :D (just trying to be funny, Mr. Dye you are welcome to provide your wisdom). But if we can just get the sellers to be a bit logical in the asking price and stop asking $200K+ for an RV that was selling for $90K -$110K pre-Covid and buyers that would step up and maybe pay $120-150K for the same RV that sold for $90K to $110K pre-covid, then maybe we would see some of these folks on both sides be happier. If you look at the market, it's obvious that RVs that are selling quickly are priced fairly for today's market. Keep in mind that last year when RVs were selling at their highest premium, was mainly because money was cheap. A buyer could borrow money for almost nothing and pay it over a long period of time. I'm sure we know that's not the case anymore. I have no dog in this fight, but I would love to see some of these planes that have been for sell for 1 to 6 months, go to new owners so they can be excited about their new RV and add some new RV Grins around the country.

This is just a post to get the folks that are looking to sell and the ones looking to buy, to just think about being on the opposite side and put themselves in their shoes. I'm not sure if this will have any positive outcome whatsoever, but if I can just get one buyer and seller to come to terms, then this post was worth writing;).

Happy selling & buying

God Bless

Amir
 
I agree with your observations expressed above. I see it as just normal market supply and demand issues driven by the rapidly changing economy over the last few years. Currently, the sellers expectations are legging behind current and developing market realities as we continue to transition to an inflationary economy. It's going to get worse. The next several months are likely to be increasingly enlightening and uncomfortable for people who are trying to sell high high-end items like airplanes.
 
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Hear me out

Just being devil's advocate, so hear me out.
So i should lower my price, because the interest rates are too high?

If i have to sell my plane, then i want the highest price for it. I would be willing to wait for a buyer with cash, who doesn't need to finance the purchase, then reduce the price. And if the plane wont sell in a reasonable time, then I will reduce the price.

I think what you are seeing, is a lot of planes are changing hands, but the real price is not disclosed. if i see a plane I like, I might step up and give the seller a $20K premium knowing that there is not a lot of inventory.

The true selling prices of these planes I would bet is never disclosed.
 
PilotjohnS said:
Just being devil's advocate, so hear me out.
So i should lower my price, because the interest rates are too high?
Click to expand...

Not at all. You should ask for the amount you want to get. You'll sell it for the highest price you can get and your success (or lack thereof) will tell you whether or not your asking price is too high. OP is just predicting that you'll ultimately have to accept a lower selling price in the looming economy. A reasonable prediction IMHO.
 
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I am in land development and raw land purchases for subdivisions.
Lot of parallels with seller expectations in a declining market value.

Seems to take a long time for sellers to understand they cant get the same values as at the peak of the market. The mentality of 'I wont sell unless I can get my high price' only changes when situations change into 'have to sell', for whatever reason.

I expect RV prices to stabilize or decline a bit as the market settles down.
But it may take some time.
 
It is very true that the prices have gone crazy especially during COVID which I never understood why but some of that is also reflected by the building cost.* An engine that I bought for just about $40k pre COVID is about $62K now.* That applies to airframes, avionics*and just about anything else that goes into building a plane.
However, I agree with your notion that buyers and sellers need to find a more reasonable expectation that matches the realities of the market
 
My experience centers more on the charter boat market. I have found over 30 plus years that sellers who over price the market in the end net less than those who priced correctly or even under priced the market a bit. This is especially true in a declining market. Every day your product sits unsold the actual value is reducing while you pay extensive carrying costs most don’t account for. Another aspect not thought about often is the investment potential for the funds you receive in a sale. Holding out for a year to get the very highest price rarely nets you the most. A 200k aircraft a seller won’t budge on that should be 180k won’t net the seller more even if he gets 200k a year later after carrying costs and lost investment opportunities.
 
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But now overlay the cost in today’s market to build. For example, my slow build RV-10 kit (only final paint farmed out):
- $66K for the airframe
- $56K for the engine (ordered 2.5 years ago and I’m still waiting)
- $10K for the other FWF and electrical stuff
- $32K for the full IFR dual EFIS panel (and I build it)
- $3K for primer, interior paint and such
- $20K for final paint
- $8K for interior
- $5K for miscellaneous

Total: $200K (but we all know the end price will be higher)

Put this “everything first class but not crazy” example up against the price of any comparable spam can and I can easily see a $300K+ selling price.

The days of bolt on a used engine, a wooden prop and steam gauges to fly away under $80K ended a couple of decades ago.

Carl
 
Carl Froehlich said:
The days of bolt on a used engine, a wooden prop and steam gauges to fly away under $80K ended a couple of decades ago.

Carl
Click to expand...

A couple of decades or so ago that RV-4 or -6 flew for $30,000! (Old timers remember the "$30,000 demo flight"...)

Just a nostalgic data point. :)

[thread moved to "General Discussion"]
 
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Carl Froehlich said:
But now overlay the cost in today’s market to build. For example, my slow build RV-10 kit (only final paint farmed out):
- $66K for the airframe
- $56K for the engine (ordered 2.5 years ago and I’m still waiting)
- $10K for the other FWF and electrical stuff
- $32K for the full IFR dual EFIS panel (and I build it)
- $3K for primer, interior paint and such
- $20K for final paint
- $8K for interior
- $5K for miscellaneous

Total: $200K (but we all know the end price will be higher)

Put this “everything first class but not crazy” example up against the price of any comparable spam can and I can easily see a $300K+ selling price.

The days of bolt on a used engine, a wooden prop and steam gauges to fly away under $80K ended a couple of decades ago.

Carl
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Valid point, but I'm confident that the decision as to whether to build an airplane or buy an already-flying one is not always a function of cost. I know many pilots in experimental aviation that have no interest in building an airplane no matter how much money they might save.
 
Reverse tire kickers

And then there is the seller that saw some sell for crazy prices a year ago and doesn’t really want to sell but thinks, hey if I can get a crazy price, why not test the water.
 
When Cirrus can sell an new airplane for over a million bucks, that only increases the value of say an RV-10, it's closest EAB competitor. The sale price of any airplane is what somebody is willing to pay. For those RV builders/owners, the value of their investment has increased, and those looking to buy are paying premium prices right now. Simple supply and demand.
 
I might be in the middle of that, depending upon estimates to clean the soot out of the RV-9A... Trying to sell it and buy another RV, or a something else...

I think there's two factors at work. One is that today's RV is a whole heckuva lot more plane than in days of yore. My -9A has WAAS GPS, autopilot, constant speed prop, touchscreens, all of which are major steps up from my old RV-4. It's like comparing spuds to vichysoisse.

Then there's the boutique factor. High end RVs, just like AirCams and Glastar Sportsman 2+2s, have attracted followings from folks who come into aviation with a lot of money. Cirrus' similarly.

Wouldn't bother me to be able to buy a nice -10 or -14A, but those are a big step up from the -9A. And that step up is bigger now than it used to be.
 
2023 cost prices

After I visited my engine and prop supplier in Oshkosh just to say hi, I was dumstruck to see what these items were selling for today compared to what I paid in 2019-2020.

Back home, I made a spread sheet to know what my RV would cost today if I started a new one today with the same options.
Motivation was curiosity and insurance value as I have no intentions to sell.
I do admit that I built a "deluxe" version with loads of goodies bought new.
All in all, I come up with a pricing of $175K (cost for parts only).
That includes sales taxes for Canada but NOT shipping which I heard has gone through the roof!!
I was surprised and not expecting that high of a number.
This to say that if a prospective buyer balks at a flying RV prices today compared to 4-5 years ago, a seller can somewhat justify the steep increase.
In my view, buying an already flying RV has some attractiveness as it's flying NOW, instead of waiting for parts and building. That attractiveness comes with a price IMHO...
 
It is true that the cost to build a nice RV has definitely risen over the past several years. While this does have some impact on the value of airplanes that were built several years ago, sellers are trying to capitalize on most if not all of these increases that they did not have to invest in their airplane. Critical buyers know this and keep looking elsewhere. A recent example was listed for over double what it took to build it. I bet that one is going be available for a while.

I am also a firm believer that most airplane's final selling price is some fraction of the asking price and the details are never made public. Sellers see others listing for very top dollar expecting that is the current market when in reality it is likely much less.

Many RV's are sold without ever being listed. I would bet most of them are closer to the actual market than some of these outlandish listings.

As always there are exceptions for exceptional aircraft or a buyer with more money than sense.
 
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I'm not sure what the point of the original post was, TBH. Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them, be they homes, stocks, cars, boats, airplanes, booze, dope...

It's called a *market*.
 
This is simple: You sell based on what it is worth TO YOU! You buy, based on what it is worth TO YOU! Everything else is an opinion and opinions are worth however much you paid for it. :cool:
 
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Ed_Wischmeyer said:
today's RV is a whole heckuva lot more plane than in days of yore.
Click to expand...

But are they really? What do they do that is so different from the days of yore? A $40k RV-4 does exactly what Van designed his airplanes to do. Sadly, the original intent behind these little airplanes is pretty much lost on most who get involved with them these days.
 
One advantage of being over 70, is you have been through this already.

This time around, there is a new twist that will make this way more devastating.

Don't build over your head. Have a good reserve. Stay out of debt.
 
I, too, think the prices are somewhat ridiculous right now. The unfortunate thing is that so much of the success of the RV market has been because the entry price was affordable for a lot of people. I built my first RV-4 for $17K in 1981. Even with inflation, you can't get that kind of deal now.

Unfortunately, it's the same from all of the suppliers, from props, instrument panels, and interiors, and especially paint jobs. The prices are eye-popping.

How long it can continue is an unknown, but I for one hope they can get reasonable again sometime soon.

Vic
 
The root of the problem is that some people (I assume business owners) got a big pay day from Covid. I as a blue collar worker surely did not. My disposable income has only gotten smaller since 2019 thusly I am less likely to spend as much as I would have in 2019. So the value's didn't really go up, you just had people with a bunch of money that paid too much because they could. Now the selling public expects those prices to hold or the buyers who got in at the high price want their money back. Meanwhile the average buyer who walked away from the crazy prices of the last 2-3 years will continue to wait until prices return to normal. Some airplanes have started back to normalcy while others are still wildly over priced. How patient people are will determine where the market settles back to.
 
The Cirrus is WAY over a million dollars now. Much like the RVs, they're hardly comparable to what the company put out only 10-15 years ago. Got a thousand hours in them and it still blows my mind when I get in a new SR22 versus an "old" (aka G3) one.

Speaking of which, I get the impression that many airplanes, especially RVs, do change hands without appearing on the public market. Maybe it's because of the large community, I don't know. But that's how I got my RV-6 last year. IO-360, full Garmin G3X Touch panel w/ autopilot, extended range fuel, GAMI injectors, electronic ignition, new leather interior, all new wiring, LED lighting, etc. $67k.

I also see RV-7s listed for 4 times that much. Is that a better aircraft than mine? Sure. It's it 4x better? I don't think so. But if someone pays that price, then for them the answer is yes.

This isn't specific to RVs. I see the same thing happening with automobiles, homes, boats, and most other large ticket items.

--Ron
 
RV7A Flyer said:
I'm not sure what the point of the original post was, TBH. Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them, be they homes, stocks, cars, boats, airplanes, booze, dope...

It's called a *market*.
Click to expand...

:D no point in my post as I stated on my OP. Just kicking up conversation and getting people's views. Maybe you didn't read the entire post... it's okay:p
 
One word - MOSAIC

I am anticipating a "MOSAIC bump" in prices for aircraft that qualify under the final criteria. For example, if a 9a qualifies under the final criteria, it will be a very compelling aircraft to fly with a driver license medical. And, if FAA includes some variation of Repairman Certificate that would allow maintenance and condition inspection after some reasonable period of training, it would be a bonus. In addition, the insurance and maintenance cost for complex, expensive, aircraft (think Bonanza with retracts) seems to be driving owners to consider other options, to alleviate those insurance bills (and even lack of ability to get insurance), and maintenance costs. Perhaps what we're seeing is a precursor to the MOSAIC bump. Just another thought for discussion.
 
Like everything in life the value of any item is what someone is willing to pay for it! It’s the same deal for all of us, sell high buy cheap, on any second hand item!
I bought my last plane (RV4) after waiting ages, found the right one for me at the right price. Another I looked at the guy was simply greedy, once he had numerous potential buyers he removed it from the market then reloaded a little while later $30K higher, well Karma does work, it languished for ages at that stupid price, after quite a while he’s dropped the price but missed the hysteria boat……love it -)
 
Lots of smarter people than me have posted some good responses

I am not an economist but I pretend to be one to my wife.

PilotjohnS said:
I think what you are seeing, is a lot of planes are changing hands, but the real price is not disclosed
Click to expand...

Supply and demand rules tends to work best when buyers and sellers know what is the current actual selling price.

Brantel said:
I am also a firm believer that most airplane's final selling price is some fraction of the asking price and the details are never made public. Sellers see others listing for very top dollar expecting that is the current market when in reality it is likely much less.
Click to expand...

High advertised selling price highly exaggerates perceived value. I think iPhones maybe an example.

Ed_Wischmeyer said:
One is that today's RV is a whole heckuva lot more plane than in days of yore.
Click to expand...

This has been my thought for quite awhile. EAB planes, especially in the RV world, are being built to rival production airplanes. Yes inflation and technology have driven up prices but, to a much higher extent, it has been the desire to have “new” and “the latest” that have increased the build cost and therefore the resale price. EAB used to be built with mid time engines, used steam gages, no leather seat, self painted, and lower build quality due to minimal builder support (pre internet and pre prepunched kits). New thinking to “what is an EAB” has also been driven by the market as many suppliers are now catering to the large EAB market with lots of new shiny gadgets. (Do I really need night vision in my airplane? Cool, If I want it I can get it.)

ronrapp said:
This isn't specific to RVs. I see the same thing happening with automobiles, homes, boats, and most other large ticket items.
Click to expand...

Agree. Have you seen the latest price for buffalo chicken wings at your favorite bar and grill?
 
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Seems true.

I'm riding around in a $60k half-ton Duramax the past two years - an astronomical amount of money for a pickup truck compared to what I was used to, "growing up," but easily $100k now if I were to sell this one used and go looking for a new replacement. And if I were in Argentina, I could bank on that truck costing me double today's price in about eight months. If you look at the quantity of $USD printed in the last few years versus our whole American history, it's pretty obvious we will be seeing some brutal inflation at home even if responsible steps to mitigate it were undertaken today. That cannot help but affect the EAB market as it does everything else.

Stroked a check to the insurance company for $3,600 last week, and it was painful, but so was the realization that, at $300k hull, my -10 is definitely under-insured in today's crazy market.
 
I think when you look at the RV fleet and then at the competition, there isn’t much.
Ok the RV-10 competes against the Cirrus, but look at the difference in price. Then take a look at the RV-14, where’s the competition to that aircraft? Or the RV-8?
The great thing about RVs is that they do everything well, so there’s just not that much out there to compare to them.
 
Keep in mind that the Warbird movement largely started with average pilots finding they could pick up a war surplus bird for $3-500 complete with spare engines, etc. 70 years ago...
 
Once Vans releases its inevitable test report on LCP aka Parts On Crack, stating that cracks are ok because we say they are ok…prices will come down. Way down. Possibly irreversibly down. I typically like to be positive with my posts…but I believe this to be relevant
 
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mc607 said:
Once Vans releases its inevitable test report on LCP aka Parts On Crack, stating that cracks are ok because we say they are ok…prices will come down. Way down. Possibly irreversibly down. I typically like to be positive with my posts…but I believe this to be relevant
Click to expand...

The LCP planes will end up being a small percentage of all RVs and IMHO won’t affect the overall RV market at all.
 
Value of a dollar

Last great market in my frame of reference was when I started, 1995.

A dollar then costs exactly $2 today.

Folks crack me up.

No notes, from wife or bank or husbands, maybe on a -10.

The $30k test hop is now $60k, before market forces.
 
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mfleming said:
The LCP planes will end up being a small percentage of all RVs and IMHO won’t affect the overall RV market at all.
Click to expand...

Anyone looking for a used Harley knows that from 1969 to 1980 AMF built an inferior product during their control of Harley.

When Willie G and investors purchased the company back from AMF in 1980...... well, the rest is history.

People will get over a bad spot in a companies history if the value is there.
 
moosepileit said:
Last great market in my frame of reference was when I started, 1995.

A dollar then costs exactly $2 today..
Click to expand...

Let's go back another 28 years....

$1 in 1967 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $4.56 in 1995, an increase of $3.56 over 28 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 5.57% per year between 1967 and 1995, producing a cumulative price increase of 356.29%.

This means that prices in 1995 are 4.56 times as high as average prices since 1967, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index.

History does repeat itself...... Be careful out there.
 
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