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The trip that almost was....

Brantel

Brantel

Well Known Member
For months my wife has been training for her third half marathon to be ran at Disney World this weekend. That being said for months I have been eagerly anticipating the opportunity to get to fly us down in the RV.

For the past week I have been painfully scanning all the available weather information that would impact our decision to fly or drive. I absolutely hate driving these days and looking at a 11+ hour drive ahead of me when a 3hr flight would do it, is not my idea of fun.

For the last 24hrs my wife has been hounding me to tell her the decision...fly or drive.

Well this morning the call was made to drive.

Our flightplan was simple:

KMOR to KISM, VFR GPS direct @ 9500ft on either Thursday or Friday with a firm requirement to get back home by Monday (Strike one)

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First the weather in the Southeast has been all over the place in the last 24hrs due to a strong upper level disturbance. It looks like all the clouds and storms are going to be out of the way by noon but the entire Southeast is forcast to be hammered by strong surface winds in the neighborhood of 25-30mph. (Strike two) The winds aloft are forcast to be very strong in the 60 knot range. While I am OK at crosswind landings, my wife gets nervous and I will be fully loaded with a CG in the back of the range by the time I get there. I know they have cross runways there but I always plan to expect to have to land somewhere else along my route. That somewhere else may not have a runway aligned with the strong winds.

The forcast for the return trip on Monday has an area of widespread precip that basically cuts off our return path home on Monday. We must be back on Monday which leaves us few options. (Strike Three)

And then I see this this morning

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A POTUS TFR.....not valid at the time we plan on arriving but we all know these things can get changed quickly. (Strike Four)

I struggle with these decisions because sometimes I feel like I am being too overly cautious. I love having an RV to take trips in but I do not want to ever put my wife under unnecessary risk just to get my fix.

This makes twice that I have planned to fly us to Orlando for her race in which I made the call to drive.....:(

What would you guys have decided?
 
Safe Decision

Remember there are old pilots and bold pilots, but there is no such thing as an old bold pilot. Good decision in my book. Besides if mama isn't happy...well you know the rest.
 
There is nothing wrong with being overly cautious.

I was flying yesterday and trying to be overly cautious but it worked against me. I had to fly from Charlotte, NC to Cartersville, GA. The forecast called for low ceilings but broken during the AM and high scattered in the PM. BUT, the PM called for strong and gusty winds. I decided to leave out of Charlotte around 9 AM in hopes of hitting that sweet spot in between the clouds and the winds.

I knew I would have headwinds and planned for a 2 hour flight (normally 1:30 flight). At 10:15 AM I arrived over Cartersville at 6500 (40kt headwind) with my wheels lapping at the clouds. No way was it broken or anything close to it. So I bugged out to the north where I could see cumulus clouds building knowing there should be a hole near one of the builders. Right around Chattanooga (50 NM) I found a hole and an airport. I landed at Collegedale, TN with 20kt winds to refuel. It was thundering and I knew I needed to move fast. I departed for Cartersville under the layer. I bounced in 35kt winds at 500ft AGL for about 30 miles and ran into heavy rain. After picking my way through that I landed VFR in Cartersville.

30 minutes after landing the sky pretty much opened up to scattered clouds and not so bad winds.

I was so worried about landing in 25kts gusty x-winds I decided to fight clouds and rain. Looking back it wasn't the best decision and it makes me want to make my plane IFR capable for just those days.

PS. I knew I had an emergency out with the GRT and synthetic approach that I have practiced a dozen times in Cartersville.
 
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Brantel said:
I struggle with these decisions because sometimes I feel like I am being too overly cautious. I love having an RV to take trips in but I do not want to ever put my wife under unnecessary risk just to get my fix.
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I've learned to be a cautious pilot by the good examples of people like you, Brian. My natural inclination is towards cutting corners and get-there-itis. It's natural that you "struggle with these decisions" but it's impressive that you let safety rule the day. So many incident reports make it clear not everyone is so wise.

Thanks for sharing (and thus teaching).

--
Stephen
 
If the decision is just the TFR I would consider going. Check the restrictions for the TFR. Often you are allowed to fly in the TFR if you are talking with ATC via a IFR flight plan or VFR flight following and have a assigned transponder code.

George
 
Remember the old saying:

It better to be on the ground wishing you where in the air, rather than beeing in the air wishing you where on the ground.... :D

To me, it looks like you made the right choice. :)

Drive safe.
 
I've had to scrub more missions than I have been able to go due to being conservative.

I have occasionally made a flight solo with 1strike or with a very experienced friend w/2 strikes(learned a lot that day). My wife Kris is a very nervous flyer, so as soon as I add her to the equation, It must be home run....1 strike and we're out.

You did good Brian....boring but good. I'll fly or drive with you.;)
 
hydroguy2 said:
I've had to scrub more missions than I have been able to go due to being conservative.

I have occasionally made a flight solo with 1strike or with a very experienced friend w/2 strikes(learned a lot that day). My wife Kris is a very nervous flyer, so as soon as I add her to the equation, It must be home run....1 strike and we're out.

You did good Brian....boring but good. I'll fly or drive with you.;)
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Good job Brian - you have your rules set in advance, and you don't let circumstances change them in real-time. You're realistic about examining whether or not the rules are valid, but in the end, you make a decision that lets you fly another day.

The most valuable tools in my light plane flying "kit" are a cell phone to call my destination to say I won't be there (or will be there a different way or day)...and a SWA ticket (when I absolutely, positively need to be someplace).

RV's (even IFR-equipped RV's) are great traveling machines, but they have limitiations which must be observed.

Paul
 
Good call

Brantel,
Good call! Every issue that complicates the trip has a potential of compromising the viabilty of completing the mission. I like your approach of taking in all the available information and making a decision based on the totatality of the sitaution. The James Reason Swiss Cheese Model comes to mind. It's all about threat and error management.
 
Had a similar no-go last week on a two-day biz trip from SC to Orlando with my wife.

One thing that will take some of the sting out of driving is you get to see what conditions you would have been flying in and having to negotiate. It validates your decision and allows you to do something other than fret over the trip home while you are in "sunny" Florida.
 
I can't imagine ever giving any pilot a hard time for making a no-go call. You made an excellent decision, and you'll see some great scenery and have a good time with your wife on your drive. Wish her luck in the run!
 
Always leave a way out

Good call. As a retired professional pilot I would have made the same call, just based on your #3 - if I HAVE to get there or back in a specific time period and the weather is iffy, I drive. Otherwise I am quite happy to fly up to bad weather, land, and wait it out. Sometimes it's not as bad as forecast, sometimes it's worse. If I am not on a schedule, I'll go take a look. I've spent many hours or even days waiting out weather, and maybe twice over the last 30 years when the weather just refused to budge, I've rented a car, then drove back to pick up the plane later.

Always, always, always leave yourself a way out, and you will be much less stressed when flying, and much safer.

But the weather is fabulous once you are here, enjoy!:)
 
Pat on the back!

Yessir, you "done good!" I also admire you resisting Strike Three. That is a killer.

I left my -4 in Wyoming for a month back in 1997. Had to take flight home then back to retrieve her. But I didn't look back. I'm thinking right now, here I am some 15 years later, still laughing having a good time reading the forum. :D Why press it??

Cheers,
 
Good call, but..

...love having an RV to take trips in but I do not want to ever put my wife under unnecessary risk just to get my fix...

Should you really change your go/no-go rules based on risk just because your wife is with you?
 
I hear you but my risk tolerance is different than hers. It also changes some when both of the parents of my three kids are gonna be in on the same trip.

Don't get me wrong or read too much into my phrase you quoted. I would take the same approach to a go/no-go decision regardless. The limits might just be a "little" narrower or wider depending on the payload.
 
I would have flown

I see nothing that would have kept me from flying the trip. I think I fully understand what you were going through.

Bob Axsom
 
You are the only one who can make that decision. The one thing I will add is that I never take a trip where I have to be back on a certain day, regardless of weather. If you can't afford to be stuck somewhere for a day or two, weather, mechanical, illness, whatever,,,, don't go. Simple as that.
You know the old saying; "Have time to spare, go by air."
Personally, I am a fuel chicken, but I will test the weather as long as I have an out. If you never fly in wind or rain you could get yourself stuck somewhere without an option and little confidence to deal with it. I also have done more than one 180 turn out of weather. It is really hard to accept and do, that is why so many people get killed by not turning back. Again, don't put a deadline on yourself or you may make a bad decision.
 
Brantel said:
I struggle with these decisions because sometimes I feel like I am being too overly cautious. I love having an RV to take trips in but I do not want to ever put my wife under unnecessary risk just to get my fix.

This makes twice that I have planned to fly us to Orlando for her race in which I made the call to drive.....:(

What would you guys have decided?
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Brantel,

The trip was doable today and tomorrow but it would have been rough. Weathermeister predicted VFR but also showed strong gusty surface winds and a head wind most of the way. Any necessity to fly low to maintain VFR would have been very uncomfortable.

The return trip on Monday is questionable VFR, especially coming out of Florida early in the morning. The week end would have been tense, perhaps ruined, over a possible pressure cooker to get home on Monday.

You may hate driving, but it will be more relaxing than flying it. :) I predict you will drive through some weather on Monday and be glad you are not flying through it.
 
"What would you guys have decided?"

Brian:
You made the right decision for you, that's all that's important. Interestingly, I personally find that my risk assessment is tending toward the conservative side the longer I fly. Your thought process and reasoning are spot on.
Terry, CFI
RV9A N323TP
 
"Get there-itis" kills beaucoup folks. Nothing is so important that you end up dead. No work obligation. No concern over costs to overnight.

Always keep in mind if things are iffy: Which is better....any implications of getting there or home late......or DEAD. Then decide.
 
Brantel said:
What would you guys have decided?
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Brian, pretty consistent response, eh! As you already know, it really doesn't matter what anyone else would have decided. It would be more important to know why they would have made a go or no-go call.

That's why Bob Axsom's different response is just as valid as any of the others. He's got a ton of cross country experience in small planes, and probably would not have had a deadline. Perhaps the winds he saw were acceptable to him (and he has an A, you do not). That's just one example, and for you, it was a different set of criterion, as it would be for anyone else.

I also understand Gil's concern about changing risk criterion, but figured you meant risk of rough rides and stressful flying...something that might scare her away from flying. I figured if any really threatening conditions were out there, the call would have been easy for you (solo or with momma aboard). It's those gray area days that test your resolve to follow "your rules". Who our passenger is and their "conditions tolerance" (versus risk tolerance) is an important piece of the puzzle. Gil made a good point, but your decision matrix made sense.

FWIW, Austin, Las Vegas, LA, SF...places I've left my plane because I had to be at work to fly and wouldn't press it. Places I've not flown to because of weather...far outnumber those. IMHO, you made a good call...and next time it may not be any easier to make the call...'cause it'll all be different shades of gray, and the pressures in each direction will vary...so stick to your guns and be true to your instinct...a good segue to...

Ironflight said:
Good job Brian - you have your rules set in advance, and you don't let circumstances change them in real-time.
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And remember that changing circumstances will test your resolve. They may open up, or they may close down...but they will change, and your rules will be your guide!

Ironflight said:
The most valuable tools in my light plane flying "kit" <snip> ...and a SWA ticket (when I absolutely, positively need to be someplace). Paul
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And I love that about you! :D Everyone should stock up on those! ;)

panhandler1956 said:
It's all about threat and error management.
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A key statement in the thread. Recognizing threats and mitigating them, catching errors and correcting them...in both cases before either lead to pilot overload or an undesired aircraft state. Its an important concept in our training at work, and one that applies to all of us when flying. Sometimes that means not leaving the gate or the home drome, as you chose Brian.

And FWIW, the rides pretty much blew all over the country on my 3 day trip completed just tonight!

Have fun in Orlando, and good luck to your bride in her race!

Cheers,
Bob
 
Excellent thread...

Probably a very good reason those of us with more experience, incidents, good decision making through planning, and honesty with self assessment are still here to wax our opinions.:eek:
 
I'm presently in Orlando on a business trip and went through the same decision process except the choice was to either fly Myself or fly Air-Tran from Huntsville. I fully understand your decision and think you made the right one. Enjoy your weekend and drive safe!
P.S. @Bob Mills: Do I get some "credit" for flying Air-Tran? It's now owned by Southwest and we don't have SWA in Huntsville. :)
 
Have to get there

If I have a trip where it's really important to get to the destination on time - even sometimes vacation or recreation is a pretty strong motivator - I consider that Strike One. The weather must be better, if I know I'll be fighting any sort of get there-itus
 
I think you made the right decision for your "business trip" circumstances. As JonJay suggested, deadlines and VFR (and some IFR) are often times mutually exclusive.

On the other hand, some of my best and most memorable cross country flights I ever had were pre-IFR, "we'll get there when we do" adventures. In regions and time of year where weather patterns are slightly more predictable it's fun to safely advance as weather permits, stopping in at unplanned airports and spending time, even overnight in the neighboring towns until conditions allow you another hop. If everyone on board is like-minded, it's a joy. I actually missed those days after I went IFR and flying became a little more predictable.

Having recently re-animated flying after a long time away I can attest to the abundance of available nav and weather information that can easily lend itself to greater conservatism in go/no go decisions. Aircraft speed and equipment and pilot capability and currency are definitely decision-making components. VFR flights undertook in my IFR Mooney gave me a lot more contingency capability than my current, basic panel Super Decathlon.

You owe it to yourself to plan aother trip with the flexibility (and even hope) to not make your intended destination.
 
Good call.

However, if you are planning on violating the TFR, I believe the current procedure is to load the A/C with illegal drugs and then blast :rolleyes:
 
I did not find details on the POTUS TFR but if your destination was outside the no fly ring (10 nm?) you should have been able to fly there as mentioned before (VFR flight plan, squawk code, etc).

Read up on the details so that does not needlessly cancel a flight.
 
You made the right call. As builders we have built our little airline and complete all the tasks required at it. You are the Director of Operations, Director of Maintenance, Head of the Safety Department, Chief Pilot, Schedules, Public Relations (What do you mean we can?t go?), and a host of other positions needed to get safely from A to B. When we do not take the responsibility to wear all those hats something gets left behind and we put ourselves at risk. Aviation has come a long way thanks to risk management and a healthy dose of knowledge passed on by sites like this. In the Coast Guard a long time ago our motto was ?You have to go out, but you don?t have to come back.? That saying changed a long time ago after mishap lessons were taken to heart. We all have probably launched into weather that was forecast to be acceptable and turned out to be much uglier than predicted. As a former Coastie and EMS pilot I have turned down flights that were forecast to be ?flyable? because that 6th sense told me that it was not going to be. Sometimes I was right sometimes I was wrong. I was sure glad I listened on those times I was right. Bottom line; If you are around later to beat yourself up over the decision not to go then things are not so bad. Just my 2 cents, take care and blue skies
 
While I'm all for scrubbing a flight in the face of obvious danger, I didn't see any obvious reason not to go.

The requirement of "having to be back" on Monday was the only thing that might sway my decision.

My thoughts: you don't have to fly up at 9500 feet. Fly where the air is smooth, enjoy the view, avoid weather and stay clear of cloud.

Weather forecasts are right about half the time. METARS mean a whole lot more to me than that TAF's.

It's only a 3.5 hour flight which you can do in one shot, but you don't have to. Stop, let weather pass and proceed.

25-30 mph surface winds aren't "Hammering" and as long as they're not 90 degree cross, you can handle that. If you're not comfortable then go out and practice on those days and get comfortable. Not a strike in my opinion.

The upper winds in the 60 knot range is not a strike either. As mentioned earlier, just stay lower.

I don't know much about TFR's but you said that it may not be in effect at your time anyways. No strike their either.

In your neck of the woods the terrain is low and relatively flat. You have the option of buggering along at 1000 foot AGL. For me, anywhere West to fly and I have to deal with 11,000 foot mountains and the weather really gives me a hard time.

For you, a line of scary looking thunderstorms moving in my direction would cause me to reconsider taking off. I get excited about a trip too and I use to check weather a week out. I've learned that it's almost pointless as it's too hard to know. A Go-No go, for me, has to be made 24 hours or less. You can watch a trend and plan an alternate route, or diversion, but really till 12 hours before launch, who knows.

Getting back on Monday, same thing. Check weather the night before. Unless the entire area is socked in with fog or rain, there is a way home. It's only 3.5 hours straight. Maybe a little diversion to the East or West, maybe two legs instead of one, but likely doable.

You did the right thing though as your comfort level was exceeded, but had you gone and made it back home safely, would your confidence have been increased? Confidence in your pilotage and flight planning? Probably.

Darren
 
On the road trip down yesterday we saw our destination go from IFR to MVR till the afternoon. Most of Southern Ga and Northern Fl were MVR almost all day. High winds and turbulence cover the entire area yesterday and today.
Today there is a front passing through the SouthEast with a large line of thunder boomers all along it's length basically cuttin off Florida.

I like to cross the Smokies at good altitude because good places to land along that route are few and far between.

Monday is still a guess but the forecast is still for the Southeast to get wet.

The weather and the fact that my wife does not like moderate turbulance for 3-3.5 hrs is enough to settle my mind. I made the right choice for me.

Darren, add a wife that is not addicted to flying like I am to the equation. It kinda skews the thought process.

The weather at Disney is great though! Warm, partly cloudy and breezy!
 
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Textbook example of good Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM), in my opinion.
Excellent!
I agree with Terry, that I seem to get more cautious the longer I fly.
 
rv7boy said:
<snip> P.S. @Bob Mills: Do I get some "credit" for flying Air-Tran? It's now owned by Southwest and we don't have SWA in Huntsville. :)
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Full credit Don...I'm thinkin' at some point it all gets to the same bottom line! Thanks! And heck, we can't be everywhere...yet! ;) Have my first ATL layover next week too! :)

Hey Don, trivia tidbit on Huntsville...flattest (least sloped) runway in N. America (or so I heard when flying in and out of there for Teledyne a while back).

Brantel said:
<snip> I made the right choice for me.

<snip> The weather at Disney is great though! Warm, partly cloudy and breezy!
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Ya know, even when the call was close, or coulda gone either way (not sayin' that's the case here), sometimes its just nice to be sippin' an umbrella drink by the Disney pool, not sweatin' a thing (but the bar bill), eh! :)

Good news is, each one of these events is training...and you learn whether you called go or no go!

Cheers,
Bob
 
It depends.

.......and when I was single, I probably would have gone...you know, at that age (24)...bulletproof and I was a habitual scudrunner...sometimes a couple hundred miles at 100' AGl when there weren't cell towers:eek:, ferrying Agwagons for a Cessna dealer.

Now I have a wife, three grown kids and ten grandchildren that factor into my decision-making a WHOLE lot!

Good decision Brian.
 
Brian,you have made a good aeronautical decision and im proud of you,by the way can i borrow your airplane since mine only has 3 cylinders right now........hehehe.
 
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