Drag hit will be pretty small
There has been considerable research done on the effect of surface roughness variation in fluid flow. Much of the data I've seen talks about laminar to turbulent transition characteristics; the effects of Reynolds Number and Mach number on skin friction coefficient (C_f), but I haven't seen anything showing how much C_f might change from one type of construction to the next.
As a general rule, the higher the airspeed and Reynolds Number, the less effect roughness has on C_f. Perhaps this is why the transport jets can get away with more than, say, a sailplane or a GA type airplane.
Even with all the testing in hand, it still looks almost impossible for one to perfectly predict the effects of standard construction "flaws" such as protruding rivets, skin seams, imperfect skin geometry (bulges, waves, etc), leakage through seams, etc etc.
Perfect test articles can tell us what theoretically perfectly smooth shapes can produce, and well built composite airplanes probably can approximate that. But from one airplane to the next - ???? You got me.
Standard C_f values for metal construction show increases of about 10% above the totally smooth values. Perhaps we do a bit better with our flush rivets and attention to detail on how our skins fit. Those things do matter.
A really quick and dirty analysis:
Suppose the standard flush riveted RV has an average C_f of .002. If we build one with protruding rivets, keeping all else equal, then C_f might go up by .0002 on those areas affected, which would be much less than 100% of wetted area.
Assuming the total wetted area affected by the roughness change is approximately 200 ft^2 (total wetted area being about 500 ft^2: WAG), we can calculate the increase in drag due to skin friction. At 8000' and 200 mph (290 fps), this would result in a drag increase of about 3 pounds.
How much speed loss? The 3 pound drag rise would require a speed reduction of 3.1 mph (4.5 fps) with no change in thrust, or other drag variables to get back to equilibrium.
Anybody have a bag of split peas?