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Rhetorical Question - Amateur-built/Experimental.......Cars?

keepup

Active Member
Before I ascend the soap box I'll just ask the question:

Today we have a relatively large contingency/market of/for amateur-built/experimental aircraft. Why do we not have an equivalent in the car world? And I'm not talking about the restoration world. I'm talking from the ground up (including kits).


Ok, now that I've asked the question (climbing the first step of the soap box), let me just say that there is a TON of discussion/controversy/passion/emotion/aspiration behind my question. I have my own answers, theories, and reasons which I will share as this goes on but I'd love to hear yours. There are a number of thing going on in my life/career that are precipitating this but reading the thread below is what broke the camel's back.

http://www.vansairforce.com/community/showthread.php?t=31855
 
Amateur construced Vehicles

Some states do title amateur constructed vehicles. This is a state action not federal. Your State Police can give you all the details.
 
I think the reason is quite simply that you can get a rip-roaring good airplane for cheap if you're willing to build it. On the other hand, to build a car from scratch or kit that would even come close to the performance and looks of a $30,000 modern import is just not possible. Our airplanes are so incredibly simple compared to modern autos, that you just can't make a fair comparison. However, if all you want is a bare-bones sports car type deal, you can build up a nice Cobra replica for a few bucks.
 
Hello John

Lots of kit cars out there.

http://www.kitcarlist.com/

Some start with a donor car and then you replace the body. Some have new frames and use pieces from a donor. I think that some are build from the ground up.

The benefit of the donor approach is that the DMV (at least in Oregon) will license it as the original car.

I have though about building one, but decided that I would start on something simple like my RV9A.

Kent
 
I built one years ago, a mid engined VW powered thing. Did pretty well and won some trophies with it. Drove it on the road (legally) one month and got scared off by other drivers doing stupid things.

Bob Kelly
 
Sure they do, you just don't hear much about them.

My all time favorite has to be a "LowCost" Lotus 7 replica. There are a bunch out there with all kinds of different engines. The best us a Miata 1.8L w/ a turbo and put out well over 250 HP to the ground in a sub 1000 lb car! :eek:
 
Isn't Sam Buchanan's car a Lotus 7 clone with a chevy S-10 engine? Looks like a great car in his videos.
 
Sure they do, you just don't hear much about them.

My all time favorite has to be a "LowCost" Lotus 7 replica. There are a bunch out there with all kinds of different engines. The best us a Miata 1.8L w/ a turbo and put out well over 250 HP to the ground in a sub 1000 lb car! :eek:

Nope, the best of the Sevens is the Super Stalker:

http://www.angelfire.com/biz6/stalkerv6

But.....I'm biased:

http://home.hiwaay.net/~sbuc/stalkerv6

Isn't Sam Buchanan's car a Lotus 7 clone with a chevy S-10 engine? Looks like a great car in his videos.

Camaro 3.4L with Holley four-barrel, cam and headers. :)

29-scoop-4.jpg


Great airport car......even if some folks prefer pink scooters.......! :D :D :D
 
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EXACTLY!!!!

I think the reason is quite simply that you can get a rip-roaring good airplane for cheap if you're willing to build it. On the other hand, to build a car from scratch or kit that would even come close to the performance and looks of a $30,000 modern import is just not possible. Our airplanes are so incredibly simple compared to modern autos, that you just can't make a fair comparison. However, if all you want is a bare-bones sports car type deal, you can build up a nice Cobra replica for a few bucks.

I threw the bait out there and you took it! That was exactly the response I was looking for and this might actually precipitate a poll seeking to get an answer to the following question: Why are you building an amateur-built/experimental aircraft? Perhaps I should research this a little more on this forum but I'm gonna guess that the most popular reason is the bang for the buck, right?

You see, this wasn't a thread about cars. Quite simply, it is unacceptable to me that the certified aircraft industry charges so much for such absolute pieces of junk. I am absolutely astounded by the economics of the aviation industry. We (yes I work in the industry) cater only to the rich, and the ultra-rich. The rich and the ultra-rich have little concern with price and hence the few airframe manufacturers out there who can survive the tiny marketplace for million and multi-million dollar business jets have no pressure to control their costs. Furthermore, because the market is so small (relative numbers of customers and products, not money), there is little market pressure to produce a QUALITY product. Believe me, I have MUCH MUCH more to say about this.

But to answer my own question. We don't build amateur-built/experimental cars from the ground up because we CANNOT build one better and with more performance for less money than the car manufacturers can. However, with airplanes we CAN build a better performing airplane for less money than the manufacturers can. This is really sad. The remainder of my life will be spent correcting this. I see an astronomical level of untapped potential in the certified aircraft industry and I know how to fix it. Anyone care to join my adventure?
 
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Before I ascend the soap box I'll just ask the question:

Today we have a relatively large contingency/market of/for amateur-built/experimental aircraft. Why do we not have an equivalent in the car world? And I'm not talking about the restoration world. I'm talking from the ground up (including kits).


Ok, now that I've asked the question (climbing the first step of the soap box), let me just say that there is a TON of discussion/controversy/passion/emotion/aspiration behind my question. I have my own answers, theories, and reasons which I will share as this goes on but I'd love to hear yours. There are a number of thing going on in my life/career that are precipitating this but reading the thread below is what broke the camel's back.

http://www.vansairforce.com/community/showthread.php?t=31855


do a search for caterham and see if they are still in business, they did what you are talking about.
 
I feel your pain. Having owned a mid-70's Cessna and comparing it to the mostly Japanese cars I've driven over the years, I would say certified aircraft represent a very poor value on a per-dollar basis compared to any other consumer product in my life. That's why I'm building, no brainer.

I can't help but think though, that you're tilting at a fundamental economic windmill. Piston Cessnas are a quarter of a million bucks and up because they sell what, maybe a thousand a year? If I could sell half as many widgets for twice the price and make the same profit, I sure would too. Even the factory LSAs have turned out to cost $100k.

It's a real chicken-and-egg situation because to justify the kind of high-rate production that could force costs down, you need a demonstrably larger potential pilot base than what we've got now. But, the high cost of getting a pilot certificate keeps the numbers down - and of course a huge portion of the training cost is because of high aircraft acquisition and operating costs.

I would also think you would need to see a real change in the way aircraft and their components are certified in order to realize much cost reduction. I would almost bet my life that the alternator in my Toyota has a vastly longer MTBF that one in a Piper, but it doesn't have the very costly paperwork to prove it.

Or maybe I'm full of it. From your insider's perspective do you see a way aircraft could be much cheaper even in small volumes?
 
I think the reason is quite simply that you can get a rip-roaring good airplane for cheap if you're willing to build it. On the other hand, to build a car from scratch or kit that would even come close to the performance and looks of a $30,000 modern import is just not possible. Our airplanes are so incredibly simple compared to modern autos, that you just can't make a fair comparison. However, if all you want is a bare-bones sports car type deal, you can build up a nice Cobra replica for a few bucks.


the caterham beat several small cars on various tracks, you can read about it on their web page.

under 30,000$, better performance than the modern imports. lacks creature comforts/ ameneties though.

http://www.uscaterham.com/home.html
 
Its all about volume. As long as volume is low, the time and money is not going to be put into anything to bring it up to the level, and low cost of a honda accord. The Lycosaurus motor most people strongly protest is the best thing in the air for 250 and under HP is a good example. It is 1930 techonlolgy, designed to be built on 1930's era machinery. It should not be the premier motor choice, nor should it cost $20-25k to build one. If Honda or Toyota could sell as many 4 passenger Cessna 172 replacements a year as they do Accords or Camerys, we all could buy an new Toyota plane for $50-75k. I work in manufacturing, and it always boils down to volume.
 
Volume

Its all about volume. As long as volume is low, the time and money is not going to be put into anything to bring it up to the level, and low cost of a honda accord. The Lycosaurus motor most people strongly protest is the best thing in the air for 250 and under HP is a good example. It is 1930 techonlolgy, designed to be built on 1930's era machinery. It should not be the premier motor choice, nor should it cost $20-25k to build one. If Honda or Toyota could sell as many 4 passenger Cessna 172 replacements a year as they do Accords or Camerys, we all could buy an new Toyota plane for $50-75k. I work in manufacturing, and it always boils down to volume.

Exactly.. Last year Toyota built 2350000 vehicles. All the GA manufacturers combined built 2675 piston engined aircraft. Just using the Toyota number that is .0011%

John Clark
RV8 N18U "Sunshine"
KSBA
 
Ascending the soap box...

Ugh! I've been laying awake for two hours now and cannot get to sleep as I think about this.

You know, I've approached this subject quite a number of times over the last few months in different settings and always feel like I'm hitting a brick wall. I'm coming to discover that a different approach is necessary. You see, in order for this discussion to be a productive one we all must be willing to accept the fact that we all look at life through our own set of eye glasses often called paradigms. For example, it was believed for centuries that the earth was flat and the center of the universe, and when it was suggested otherwise, those idiots were sent to the stocks for heresy.

In fact, just today at our local RVators meeting I posed the following question: "If you could buy a certified airplane with the same performance as your RV for the price of the kit (including engine, avionics, everything) would you still build?" The resounding response from nearly EVERYONE was, "IT CAN'T BE DONE!!! THERE IS NO WAY A TYPE/PRODUCTION CERTIFICATED MANUFACTURER CAN DELIVER AN AIRPLANE OF THAT KIND OF PERFORMANCE FOR THAT PRICE BRAND NEW!!!" I didn't get the answer to my question. I didn't ask if it was possible. I asked: if it were a REALITY would you build? You see this is a perfect example of folks being blinded by their blazing paradigm that they don't even hear the question that was asked.

We must be willing to examine our current paradigms (our perspectives of what we consider to be reality) and be open-minded about other possible paradigms.

If you are willing to do this then strap yourselves in because this might be an exciting adventure into the realms of POSSIBILITY as we open our minds to other paradigms. If you are not willing to do this then don't bother reading any further. It will just be a waste of your time.

Its all about volume. As long as volume is low, the time and money is not going to be put into anything to bring it up to the level, and low cost of a honda accord. The Lycosaurus motor most people strongly protest is the best thing in the air for 250 and under HP is a good example. It is 1930 techonlolgy, designed to be built on 1930's era machinery. It should not be the premier motor choice, nor should it cost $20-25k to build one. If Honda or Toyota could sell as many 4 passenger Cessna 172 replacements a year as they do Accords or Camerys, we all could buy an new Toyota plane for $50-75k. I work in manufacturing, and it always boils down to volume.

This is obviously a very valid point and one which I will revisit often in the future. However, I must disagree with you on your last point. I don't believe volume is the end-all and be-all. My supposition is that the real issue is even more fundamental than volume. I bring this up now because it is my hunch that after this debate/discussion runs its course and comes full circle, I predict it will come down to this fundamental issue. My supposition is that this all boils down to CHARACTER. Do we have the character to make it happen? Are we committed, passionate, disciplined? Where is our focus? On profits, bonuses, and stock performance? Or do we REALLY want to make a positive contribution to our human existence? (BTW, I'm not saying profits aren't important, without them you don't have a business, but where is our FOCUS?) Does our character value open-minded examination and challenging of our current paradigms? Or are we entrapped in our own prison of entrenched thinking because "this is how it has always been"? Do we have the courage to do what is right in the face of those looking out for number one? Do we value honesty and integrity? Do we value sustainability and longevity of the business? Or are we only concerned what we can get out of it while its still barely breathing? Do we punch the clock from 9 to 5 all the time thinking only about the weekend where all we do is sit on our a$$ in front of the TV? Or are we trying to make the world a better place?

Answer me this: Why is it that I get a blank stare when I ask folks in the industry about why they don't use Statistical Process Control? Why is it that "Senior" Process Engineers don't know what a Process FMEA is? (BTW, it stands for Failure Modes Effects Analysis and is a method for quantifying the things that can go wrong in the manufacture of a part).

Whoa! Now we're getting somewhere....

Here's a paradigm for ya: We've been airborne for roughly a century. 100 years ago we were in horse and buggy and yet, within 60 years, we had a man on the moon. It's been 40 years since then. What have we accomplished in the area of transportation of any REAL significance since 1968?

Tell me: Why do we still operate our factories like it is still WWII with equipment from that era? Perfectly good equipment, I understand. If you want to continue to build 40 year old designs and sell them for 3/4 million dollars. Not a huge market for that. The problem continues when we want to build newly designed jets on the same equipment.

Answer me this: Why don't we utilize tool dedication? What about specialization and it's direct impact on efficiency? How come we are not trending MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), downtime, and OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness) on our tools? Why are we not looking into PREDICTIVE maintenance algorithms on our tools? H.e.l.l. in many cases we're not even conducting PREVENTIVE maintenance. Just wait until it breaks and then we'll shut production down.....

Alright, here's another paradigm for ya: I liken quality assurance to a weight loss program. Deep down, everyone knows they need it. The good companies live it. The bad ones, if they survive at all, treat it like the diet of the week.

Why do we put little value on process automation? Look at the success of the automotive and high tech electronics sectors for this. Question: Can robots build better airplanes than humans?

Ooooooh! That's gonna step on a few toes there. Labor unions don't like to hear that.

How about this when it comes to pilot interface: K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid! As a student pilot I'm learning about how to lean the mixture. Dumb. Let's get out of the stone age people!!! I need 4 instruments on the panel. Tell me where I'm at and where I'm going. Tell me the health of my airplane (only need one red light for that). Tell me my airspeed. And tell me what the weather is doing. Give me a stick to go fast or slow and one to go up, down, left, and right. Give me a airframe parachute if things go bad. And for good measure give me a d.a.m.n. TV for the brats in the back..... No come on. How complicated can the flight training be in such an arrangement?

Ok, I've given you a few things to gnaw on. There's lots more to come. But, maybe........just maybe you're beginning to see the deep abiss of untapped potential I see in this industry.

I think I can get to sleep now.
 
Ugh! I've been laying awake for two hours now and cannot get to sleep as I think about this.

Really? Thinking about this kind of thing makes me think of Six Sigma, which always makes me sleepy! :)

Seriously, good questions. I'd submit that, at least on some level, it is exactly these kinds of things which prevent innovation. You made reference to the first 60 years of powered flight and all the breakthroughs and technology which developed during this period. I don't think folks in that era were into the process tracking you mention - if they were, I suspect we'd just be getting to jet powered flight about now.

To keep the auto analogy going, if the auto industry was as heavily regulated as the aviation industry, I think they'd be in the same state as we find aviation today - overpriced and underwhelming.
 
...Anyone care to join my adventure?
I'm with you on this one.

In addition to what you have already posted, I have always wondered how difficult it would be to build a plane (even mine, which I did not) in such a way as to make panel replacement/upgrades a plug and play process. I.E., you want to upgrade from VFR to IFR, just pop the panel out, and plug in a replacement. None of this one month down time while everything is rewired.

The problem here may be all the options available but hey, when I look to upgrade my car, which I have done many times, there are limits to what I want to undertake, thus limits to my choices.

Build a plane so it is easy to upgrade and maintain and you build a plane that is easy to build.
 
Design Compromises

Its all about volume. As long as volume is low, the time and money is not going to be put into anything to bring it up to the level, and low cost of a honda accord...

The manufacturers must build enough planes to make a profit. Therefore they must sell a design that will "fit" the masses. When you design a 4-seat aircraft with a 160 or 180 hp engine that can be flown in IFR conditions, your going to end up with the airplane equilivilant of a sedan... not much fun to fly.

On the other hand, if you design a small, nimble, 2-seater with few creature comforts, you probably wouldn't sell enough volume to make back your money invested, much less pay dividends to your investors.

Kitplane manufacturers, on the other hand, don't need near the volume that production manufacturers do. It takes way less people and money to turn out parts instead of a finished airplane.

Karl
Manufacuring Engineer

Now in Sandpoint, ID :)
 
How about this when it comes to pilot interface: K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid! As a student pilot I'm learning about how to lean the mixture. Dumb. Let's get out of the stone age people!!! I need 4 instruments on the panel. Tell me where I'm at and where I'm going. Tell me the health of my airplane (only need one red light for that). Tell me my airspeed. And tell me what the weather is doing. Give me a stick to go fast or slow and one to go up, down, left, and right. Give me a airframe parachute if things go bad. And for good measure give me a d.a.m.n. TV for the brats in the back..... No come on. How complicated can the flight training be in such an arrangement?

do you really believe you only need one "red light" that signifies engine health? that seems very odd to me, maybe it would work if you had a 20,000$ finished airplane. otherwise i'd like to know the temperature of various parts of my fancy engine, and a couple of other things as well like fuel flow, fuel amount, electrical charge and reserve, etc.

you want a thing in the plane that says where you are and where you are going for a student pilot?
 
Numbers...

The manufacturers must build enough planes to make a profit. Therefore they must sell a design that will "fit" the masses. When you design a 4-seat aircraft with a 160 or 180 hp engine that can be flown in IFR conditions, your going to end up with the airplane equilivilant of a sedan... not much fun to fly.

On the other hand, if you design a small, nimble, 2-seater with few creature comforts, you probably wouldn't sell enough volume to make back your money invested, much less pay dividends to your investors.

Kitplane manufacturers, on the other hand, don't need near the volume that production manufacturers do. It takes way less people and money to turn out parts instead of a finished airplane.

Karl
Manufacuring Engineer

Now in Sandpoint, ID :)

I agree with Karl. Add to this the decline in the number of potential customers, (there are 88000 fewer private pilots than there were in 1990). There are a multitude of issues causing this but I feel that the biggest problem is one of perception. The public just isn't as interested in aviation as it once was. It isn't "cool" or "sexy" anymore. It is sad for those of us that were there for the "good old days" in the 60s and 70s, but with the exception of the hard-core it is in decline. Sure, with a new technology airplane you will sell some, but enough sales to support a really new aircraft? Sad, but I doubt it.

John S. Clark ATP, CFI
FAAST Team Representative
RV8 N18U
KSBA
 
do you really believe you only need one "red light" that signifies engine health? that seems very odd to me, maybe it would work if you had a 20,000$ finished airplane. otherwise i'd like to know the temperature of various parts of my fancy engine, and a couple of other things as well like fuel flow, fuel amount, electrical charge and reserve, etc.

you want a thing in the plane that says where you are and where you are going for a student pilot?

See Danny7. You've just provided us with another example of paradigm paralysis. The difference between you and I is that I am willing to back away from the current paradigm and look at the issue through the glasses that others might look at it. Truthfully, just like you, today I DO want to know what many of the engine parameters are doing. But did you stop and think about WHY that is? What assumptions are built into your paradigm? Well, first of all, you need to know about manifold pressure, fuel flow, electrical charge, EGT, etc. etc. because we're dealing with unreliable WWII technology. Technology which relies primarily on mechanical feedback systems. There is no intelligence or brain in the airplane. You are the brain of the airplane. You MUST know these operating parameters in order to make decisions about the continued performance and safety of the aircraft.

Now, let me shift your paradigm slightly. Little 18 year old Suzy who just got her flying machine license could care less about all those parameters. She wants to go from point A to point B without being stuck in bumper to bumper traffic on the ground. All she wants to know is does she have a safely operable flying machine. And in order to pass her test to get her flying machine license she has to demonstrate a safe unpowered, parachute-assisted landing should the poop hit the oscillator. Now this is probably a dramatically exaggerated oversimplification but I use it to prove a point.

Are you going to tell me that with today's solid state technology we can't build a brain for a flying machine? This brain couldn't make all the decisions but certain many of them, enough to SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the pilot workload. For example, I get in the flying machine and the system prevents an engine start until I enter the coordinates for my next destination. The brain senses the available fuel, computes the consumption with some factor of safety (reserve), and if there is enough fuel, the engine starts. If there is not, a nice pleasant voice rings out over the speakers, "I'm sorry Mr. Bond but before we travel to location X,Y,Z we must first take on 23.215 gallons of 100LL fuel. The nearest fuel location is location A,B,C. Would you like to proceed there?".

Folks, remember, 150 years ago, conventional "wisdom" was that the human body would spontaneously combust if we went over 100 miles per hour. Examine your paradigm.
 
Little 18 year old Suzy who just got her flying machine license could care less about all those parameters. She wants to go from point A to point B without being stuck in bumper to bumper traffic on the ground. All she wants to know is does she have a safely operable flying machine. And in order to pass her test to get her flying machine license she has to demonstrate a safe unpowered, parachute-assisted landing should the poop hit the oscillator. ..........Are you going to tell me that with today's solid state technology we can't build a brain for a flying machine? .......... The brain senses the available fuel, computes the consumption with some factor of safety (reserve), and if there is enough fuel, the engine starts. If there is not, a nice pleasant voice rings out over the speakers, "I'm sorry Mr. Bond but before we travel to location X,Y,Z we must first take on 23.215 gallons of 100LL fuel. The nearest fuel location is location A,B,C. Would you like to proceed there?".

Good luck to you sir, But if the above is the future of general aviation, I want no part of it.:( I'd rather fly a J-3 with no brain.
 
Good luck to you sir, But if the above is the future of general aviation, I want no part of it.:( I'd rather fly a J-3 with no brain.

Question Hydroguy: How much bumper to bumper traffic congestion have you endured in your life? I can't tell how long you've lived in Montana. Maybe that's why you moved to Montana.
 
If you are suggesting that we'll all beat traffic gridlock by flying, I'm gonna have to say it'll never happen. The simple fact is that most folks are scared to fly commercial even when they are provided with the safest, most advanced aircraft yet devised. These same people have NO interest in becoming pilots of ANY airplane. Ask around, you'll see I'm right. Most people don't like going up in anything, let alone some little two seat bug-smasher.

Regarding paradigm shifts, I think the folks on this list are quite satisfied with the status quo (have you seen many completed RV's?). As for the onboard brain and such, I have no need or desire. If somebody else wants some electronic voice nagging them about their seatbelt, they can be my guest.
 
See Danny7. You've just provided us with another example of paradigm paralysis. The difference between you and I is that I am willing to back away from the current paradigm and look at the issue through the glasses that others might look at it. Truthfully, just like you, today I DO want to know what many of the engine parameters are doing. But did you stop and think about WHY that is? What assumptions are built into your paradigm? Well, first of all, you need to know about manifold pressure, fuel flow, electrical charge, EGT, etc. etc. because we're dealing with unreliable WWII technology. Technology which relies primarily on mechanical feedback systems. There is no intelligence or brain in the airplane. You are the brain of the airplane. You MUST know these operating parameters in order to make decisions about the continued performance and safety of the aircraft.

Now, let me shift your paradigm slightly. Little 18 year old Suzy who just got her flying machine license could care less about all those parameters. She wants to go from point A to point B without being stuck in bumper to bumper traffic on the ground. All she wants to know is does she have a safely operable flying machine. And in order to pass her test to get her flying machine license she has to demonstrate a safe unpowered, parachute-assisted landing should the poop hit the oscillator. Now this is probably a dramatically exaggerated oversimplification but I use it to prove a point.

Are you going to tell me that with today's solid state technology we can't build a brain for a flying machine? This brain couldn't make all the decisions but certain many of them, enough to SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the pilot workload. For example, I get in the flying machine and the system prevents an engine start until I enter the coordinates for my next destination. The brain senses the available fuel, computes the consumption with some factor of safety (reserve), and if there is enough fuel, the engine starts. If there is not, a nice pleasant voice rings out over the speakers, "I'm sorry Mr. Bond but before we travel to location X,Y,Z we must first take on 23.215 gallons of 100LL fuel. The nearest fuel location is location A,B,C. Would you like to proceed there?".

Folks, remember, 150 years ago, conventional "wisdom" was that the human body would spontaneously combust if we went over 100 miles per hour. Examine your paradigm.

i kind of understand what you are getting at, but i fail to see how having an engine with a good enough brain would help people fly better. most people that get past the 15-20 hours of very first learning the controls are not overloaded with thought processes.

besides, I don't think i'd want to fly if the skys were filled with people that didn't know what to do if their computer got the dreaded "blue screen of doom".

and i say the blue screen of doom tongue in cheek, but just think how bad it would be if it had a microsoft os. bleh.

I would only go up if i had to rely on linux, maybe mac os. never windows based. never.

I think the other guys that posted right above me have it right- if you could get a significant amount of commuters to fly, like in the LA basin for example, you would have airspace so messed up it wouldn't be worth it.

and if you couldn't get significant amounts of people to commute, you wouldn't get your economy of scale to produce flying machines cheap enough for commuters to use.

and the greenies would shut you down anyway for to much pollution.
 
Question Hydroguy: How much bumper to bumper traffic congestion have you endured in your life? I can't tell how long you've lived in Montana. Maybe that's why you moved to Montana.


1. Too much
2. 3 times spread 25yrs over my 47yr life span
3. Moved back to Montana for quality of life and raise a family

Which is a good reason to build a RV. Live the simple life and quick trip to the city if the mood strikes. I still don't want a robot to take me there.
 
Is 99% good enough?

Alright, why don't we put hypothetical Suzy on hold for a while and get back to hard numbers.

Turn with me, congregation, to SAE Aerospace's ARP9013 Aerospace Recommended Practice for Statistical Product Acceptance Requirements. In Appendix B on page 30 is a table with "Examples of Probability of Conformance". If you look, you will find that the processes with the HIGHEST probability are at 99.2% (e.g. fastener hole diameter tolerance, surface finish waviness, screw thread pitch diameter, gear & spline dimensions, etc). Now you say to yourself, "well, 99.2%, that's a pretty good process. If I did 99.2% of my work correctly I would be getting bonuses left and right!"

Ok, let's take that 99.2% and look at ROLLED THROUGHPUT YIELD. If you take two sequential process steps each at 99.2% yield you multiply their yield together: 99.2% x 99.2% and you get a cumulative yield for the combined processes of 98.4%.

WAKE UP PEOPLE! THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING!!!

Ok, let's talk real world now. Let's be conservative and say that every process in building an airplane has an individual process yield of 99.2% (which they do not, many are below 95%, but we're being conservative). What cumulative yield do we get if we have 100 sequential processes?

99.2% ^ 100 = 44.7%

This means that, best case scenario, for every airplane we build we have at least 55% scrap or rework. This means that, best case scenario, for every airplane we build, we actually have to build it TWICE! Stop and think about how much that costs people!!! Are freakin' kidding me? The numbers are actually worse than that.

Now what do you think about the untapped potential of this industry?

I've got more........I've got a lot more....................
 
This means that, best case scenario, for every airplane we build we have at least 55% scrap or rework. This means that, best case scenario, for every airplane we build, we actually have to build it TWICE! Stop and think about how much that costs people!!! Are freakin' kidding me? The numbers are actually worse than that.

Not quite. It means that only 44.7% of airplanes get built without a problem occurring at some step in the construction. It's not as if a run in the paint means the whole plane has to be rebuilt.
 
Homebuilt Cars are cool

... but factory built cars are built in such quantities that really good autos can be built and sold very cheap.

No so with airplanes. More than anything, the number of units produced by GA manufactures mean that new airplanes have to be sold for many 100's of thousands of dollars. Judging by sport aircraft, even a very basic factory built aircraft costs well north of $100K. It just takes that to re-coup the R&D, the reglatory compliance, and the products liability exposure.

Exp airplane builders don't have to re-coup these things and can build airplanes at (basically) the cost of materials. We don't charge ourselves anything for labor, either.

There's no way that I could buy the materials necessary for a Camry-kit and build even a basic version for what Toyota sells them for.
 
It's not as if a run in the paint means the whole plane has to be rebuilt.

Come on Steve. You know that's not what I meant. Obviously a run in the paint is reworked. My question is, how much does all that scrap and rework cost? More importantly, if it could be signficantly reduced what effect would that have on profit. And most importantly to me, once marketplace competition starts to take hold, what effect would that have on the price to me as the customer?
 
do you really believe you only need one "red light" that signifies engine health? that seems very odd to me, maybe it would work if you had a 20,000$ finished airplane. otherwise i'd like to know the temperature of various parts of my fancy engine, and a couple of other things as well like fuel flow, fuel amount, electrical charge and reserve, etc.

you want a thing in the plane that says where you are and where you are going for a student pilot?

Actually, I think he's right here. Part of the appeal of flying for some of us is acquiring arcane knowledge, sort of like sailing and being ticky about tying all your knots properly.

Sports cars used to have lots of gauges and complicated controls (no synchros) but have changed. My daily driver is a mid-engined sports car with an engine I haven't seen. I can't look at the motor without getting out tools because it is covered top and bottom by access panels. It doesn't even have an oil dipstick in the conventional sense. It does have a manual gearbox and clutch but that is really an affectation. The company's top-end model is faster and gets better mileage with an automatic.

FADEC systems are in their infancy right now for pistons, but jets have really been this way for some time--completely monitored and controlled by computers.

I wouldn't have any issues at all with a well-designed and proven system that gave me one lever for "fast-----slow"
 
This is obviously a very valid point and one which I will revisit often in the future. However, I must disagree with you on your last point. I don't believe volume is the end-all and be-all. My supposition is that the real issue is even more fundamental than volume. I bring this up now because it is my hunch that after this debate/discussion runs its course and comes full circle, I predict it will come down to this fundamental issue. My supposition is that this all boils down to CHARACTER. Do we have the character to make it happen? Are we committed, passionate, disciplined? Where is our focus? On profits, bonuses, and stock performance? Or do we REALLY want to make a positive contribution to our human existence? (BTW, I'm not saying profits aren't important, without them you don't have a business, but where is our FOCUS?) Does our character value open-minded examination and challenging of our current paradigms? Or are we entrapped in our own prison of entrenched thinking because "this is how it has always been"? Do we have the courage to do what is right in the face of those looking out for number one? Do we value honesty and integrity? Do we value sustainability and longevity of the business? Or are we only concerned what we can get out of it while its still barely breathing?


I like your passion. But it's naive and utopian. If you haven't yet, watch the movie Tucker. The reason this can't happen isn't the lack or technology or know-how. The reason it would never happen is because the Cessna's and Cirruses of the world wouldn't let it.

I guess all that's left is for you to prove me wrong (and I would love to see that by the way).

And the answer to your question is "in a heartbeat". Heil no I wouldn't build if I could have RV-like performance for the cost of a kit.
 
Check out Thunder Mountain. My brother had them build him a custom Porsche speedster. Seems to be done all the time. Kit Car magazine is the equivalent of Kit Plane magazine.
 
... but factory built cars are built in such quantities that really good autos can be built and sold very cheap.

No so with airplanes. More than anything, the number of units produced by GA manufactures mean that new airplanes have to be sold for many 100's of thousands of dollars. Judging by sport aircraft, even a very basic factory built aircraft costs well north of $100K. It just takes that to re-coup the R&D, the reglatory compliance, and the products liability exposure.

Exp airplane builders don't have to re-coup these things and can build airplanes at (basically) the cost of materials. We don't charge ourselves anything for labor, either.

There's no way that I could buy the materials necessary for a Camry-kit and build even a basic version for what Toyota sells them for.

Wow, so many points to make. First, your points about recouping the R&D, regulatory compliance (more on that to come), and liability exposure are good ones. But let's be clear. The price is based solely on one factor, value. Value is what the customer is willing to pay and is also a function of supply and demand. The reality is that there are a very small number of customers willing to pay these outrageous prices. And, I don't have the figures, but I'd be willing to bet that it is only a very small percentage of even those customers that pay for the whole thing out of their own pocket. Most are partnerships or payed for by their business budget. But the price is not solely based on the number of units produced.

Liability is an area I have almost no experience with. But suffice it to say that the consequences as a result of liability are inversely proportional to quality and reliability. Cost and quality are at the krux of what I'm talking about.

Regulatory compliance: Wow! This is a big one and probably deserves it's own thread, h.e.l.l., it's own forum! Here's my thought on the FAA/NTSB. Those folks are trying to do the right thing. But I can't help but think that they've created a situation of reverse psychology. The FAA was created in 1958. This was an era where the way you protected the customer from poor quality and reliability was to inspect the product. If it was good, the product was shipped to the customer, if it was bad, it was not. From my observations it appears that the FAA is SOOO focused on product conformity, the companys are obligated to spend money (and lots of it) to get final product conformity. Because so much effort is spent on INSPECTING quality into the products at the end of the line, there is little money, and even less desire to BUILD quality into the products in the beginning by BUILDING quality into the parts and their design by BUILDING quality into the business and manufacturing processes by BUILDING quality into the company's procedures.

I have some connections in the FAA and I've had this conversation with them. There are two huge problems with not building quality into the products, parts, processes, and procedures and waiting to inspect quality into the products at the end of the line: First, it creates astronomical amounts of scrap and rework. This get's very expensive very quickly. Second, it increases the probability of poor quality products escaping past inspection. Inspection is NEVER 100% reliable. This creates customer dissatisfaction at best, and death litigation at worst. These things put company's out of business. Don't believe me? Look at McDonnell Douglas.

I can't help but wonder how much less expensive and better quality we could produce if we JUST DID IT RIGHT!!!
 
As a student pilot (welcome to the process of begining to understand flying, piloting and the machines that do this.)

I'm learning about how to lean the mixture. (As you will learn there are many different ways to manipulate this control depending on what you need and you may feel comforted by the fact that it is a simple steel cable, which is biased to go full rich and keep the engine running should a component fail.)

Dumb. (DUMB??? perhaps you mean that you do not get it, proper operation will require you to understand internal combustion and some rudimentary tuning concepts, but for price/performance/reliability in a piston recip aircraft environment, it is hard to beat the $45 cable over the thousands of dollars engine management...while that cable is simple, it depends on the "brain" being attached to the hand in the pilot seat...

Let's get out of the stone age people!!! I need 4 instruments on the panel. Frankly, you have no idea what you need. You do have a desire to reject the existing methods of flying and aircraft control before you have learned or attempted to master them. The approaches have evolved slowly and steadily at the hands of some extraordinarily intelligent people. It will make more sense to you at some point when you learn. You attitude is not at all uncommon, given your recency as a pilot. It is one of a handful of attitudes documented in a book called "the killing zone" which is about the tremendous number of 500 hour or less pilots who kill themselves with poor piloting and poor attitudes which lead to bad decisions.

I can't help but wonder how much less expensive and better quality we could produce if we JUST DID IT RIGHT!!!

Really? Amazing, I bet that no one has ever thought of that.....these are plattitudes which are now formed around buzzwords, but simply capture principles as old as time "measure twice cut once" "no has time to do it right, but you make time to do it over"...the companies of which you speak understand all this and use it were it fits. But if one machine and two people can build all the ribs you will ever need, even with a scrap rate of 50% you will not fix it by purchasing a million dollar machine...it is cheaper on the forseeable horizon to build and scrap. You may not like it and `it may offend your sensibilities. But if the mission is to build aircraft which are safe, at the lowest cost, at the volume that can possibly be sold in a world where pilots have to be certificated....well then that's what they do.

Do not for one second think the choice is accidental, or uninformed.

Being fascinated with the latest trend in manufacturing buzzwords and statistical approaches is great. Do you really think that not one person at Raytheon has ever heard of such? How about Cessna? Cirrus? Honeywell? Lockheed? Perhaps their MBA's and PHD's are the only ones to go through Harvard and Yale and Rose Hulman, and MIT since the 60's without hearing about these things.....

On the other hand, maybe there is at least one creative, educated person at each of those companies.....perhaps the reason that planes are not going the direction you think they could is that trying to dumb down flying to the point where the discipline free, the mindless, the aimless can pilot a plane the way we currently license driving, is a bad idea even if it were possible.

Perhaps learning to flywell and operate the systems of an aircraft is difficult because it is new, because it demands results and is unforgiving of error, in a manner foreign to many in our modern world.

But I have laid awake astounded and dissapointed that someone would actually want LESS information available to a pilot, and trust MORE of the decisionmaking to the computer in a simple aircraft. Perhaps one wants to be LESS a pilot and more of a passenger.

It is not a "paradigm shift" to question what you do not fully understand, and haven't taken the time to learn. Not all truth is fundamentally based on a viewpoint, not all is relative. Some things are hard and solid and unforgiving...like the ground at 200mph or a mountain face in the fog. Other things are immutable like the laws of physics.
 
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Ha! You can better bet that's what they're banking on. Go Hondajet Go!

This statement would make sense only if Honda is willing to sell you a Jet for the price of the aeronautical equivalent of an Acura NSX. Otherwise all bets are off. That was the premise of this thread wasn't it?

I'm not saying that a better mouse trap can't be built, question is can you afford the expense to build it and give it away?

In any case, I really like the spirit of people like you: out-of-the-box thinkers. That really is the only way to innovate and advance. Good luck with your venture.

PS: Hondajet is now PiperJet isn't it? Sounds kind of establishment-ty to me ...
 
Jconard

John,

Please don't misunderstand my intention with my points in this thread. My purpose is not to change the minds of folks like you. Folks like you and I will never see eye to eye. I've already tried many times. In fact, my intention isn't to change the minds of anyone unwilling to do so. My intention is to throw possibilities out there for folks who are willing to explore other possibilities or to find others out there that may have exactly the same bottled up frustration and no one to share it with. Maybe with some synergy we can come up with even more possibilities.

Trust me, I'm under no misconception that someone can just flip a switch and these "utopian" ideas can bear fruit overnight. Look at the century it has taken the automotive industry to learn and establish this business model. Everything that turned out to be huge started small.
 
However John, you've made a point I would love to hear some expansion on:

perhaps the reason that planes are not going the direction you think they could is that trying to dumb down flying to the point where the discipline free, the mindless, the aimless can pilot a plane the way we currently license driving, is a bad idea even if it were possible.


Would you mind expanding on why you believe this to be the case? I really want to hear specifics. Hearing your reasons will expand and perhaps shift my paradigm.

Perhaps I'm simplifying this too much but all of this is about requirements compliance and requirements management. Customers pay me to meet requirements for them. Likewise, when they are piloting their flying machine they are managing requirements. When you look at the issue from this fundamental perspective where is the flaw in my argument about Suzy's red annuciator light?
 
Well,

1. It takes more to fly and airplane than to drive a car, and the consequences for others are higher.

2. The technological advances in cars have actually done little to slow the occurence of accidents, but the advent of ABS, Stability Control, etc..have made people complacent to the point that it seems safe to apply makeup while talking on the phone and driving...now if you are in the air with a closing rate of 200 mph...what then.

3. The mechnical simplicity giving rise to darn near bullet proof performance is predicated on a thinking being behind the yoke/stick....

Pilot training should wash out the people who lack the discipline to learn and understand because the one in a million case where that arcane knowledge and perseverance are needed will be critical indeed, often for many on the ground or in another flight. Sadly, pilot training, and an over enthusiastic desire to make it "easier" to "become" a pilot merely results in mother nature and physics washing out the woefully undertrained pilots in the early stages.

No offense, you are a student pilot struggling to learn...nothing wrong with that. And, like many who are educated in other areas, you naturally want to apply lessons from that world to accelerate your learning in this world. What you do not yet fully understand is that almost all the rules and customs in aviation are written in blood. It is not the same. There will come a time, when you have fully come to understand and revel the challenge of mastering this, that you may look back and feel a bit foolish for comments like "I only need four gages".

In the meantime, trust that the knobs and dials in an airplane all have a purpose, and a few uses, and learn to use them all. You may feel different. But right now our disagreement is not outlook...I see many things the way you do. Our disagreement is that you do not know of what you speak, and so your criticism is simply an expression of your frustration.

Like most things the sweeping change is simple and obvious and looks great. But the answer is complex, and the complexity becomes more clear when you better understand the subject.
 
Another question: anyone have the inside scoop on the "Highway in the Sky" project? I'm not an expert and would like to find out much more on it. Where can I find info on it? The feasibility of this seems limited by the implications on the worldwide defense systems. I know that's one issue. What are the others?
 
Another question: anyone have the inside scoop on the "Highway in the Sky" project? I'm not an expert and would like to find out much more on it. Where can I find info on it? The feasibility of this seems limited by the implications on the worldwide defense systems. I know that's one issue. What are the others?

I don't know about "THE" Highway in the Sky "project"....but I can tell you that a number of developers and existing systems have Highway in the Sky displays. To me, it is a very effective way of providing guidance data to the pilot. I know a number of very experienced pilots who are not fond of the method, so it is not universally accepted - but then, it is not universally available. You can look at this thread and find a video I shot of an approach with one. NASA Langley has explored the idea extensively as well - you could search their open project reports.

Aviation technology is advancing faster than you might think (but obviously not as fast as you would like), at least in the avionics and intelligent software regimes. The experimental world sees a lot of it. But the kind of AI that you are talking about is still a very long ways away, even in the stratospherically expensive military and commercial world. I do not yet know of an AI program that could look at all the weather data available and figure out how to get you from your home to work on any given day in one piece - or even make a valid Go/No Go decision with any reliability. And this is just one of a thousand judgments that a pilot must make on every flight.

You can't yet tell your car "I want to go to the grocery store - take me there!" and have it happen, and that is slow, in two dimensions. Add the third dimension of flight, weather, traffic, and a host of other considerations, and the problem is even more difficult!

Excellent goal though!

Paul
 
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where is the flaw in my argument about Suzy's red annuciator light?

I'll tell you exactly where: Every guy on here past the age of 30 knows at least one "Suzy" who drove her car's engine to failure by treating the low oil light as a suggestion. I know you think that making the plane idiot proof is a fix, but it's not. Paying one's dues to learn to fly weeds out those who won't take it seriously enough to survive. I think one could make a good comparison to the martial arts, where beginners spend a lot of time doing pushups and learning to bow before getting to the "good stuff". Now suppose instead they just took a bunch of 12 year olds and taught them lethal strikes and bone-breaking holds on day one.
 
Let's distinguish between a couple of different types of points I've been making. The first is the not nearly so realistic idea of Artificial Intelligence (Brain) helping Suzy not have to make so many decisions so she can just get from point A to point B with only 4 gauges, one red light, a go fast and slow knob, and a stick to go up, down, left, and right. The second is the very realistic idea of dramatic improvements in cost and quality that can be realized in the next 5 years or less.

Its interesting to me that folks have been so quick to jump on the former and such little response to the latter. Why is that?

My comments about Suzy, although not theoretically impossible, are neither very realistic, at least in our lifetime. I completely understand experienced pilots who have undergone heavy doses of financial and intellectual discipline and sacrifice to get to where they are being offended by such simplistic views. But can we put that very minor point on the back burner for now?

Of much more interest to me is the very real improvements we could make today. So again I ask:

Why don't we utilize Statistical Process Control?
Why don't we have more automated manufacturing processes?
Why don't we have tool dedication?
Why don't we process map?
Why don't we quantify process risk?
Why don't we gather data? Why don't we make data-driven decisions in addition to intuition/experience-based ones?
Why do we limit our engineering data reduction effort to MS Excel and disregard tools like MathCAD and Minitab?
Why do we push problems down the line for someone else to deal with?
Why aren't we serious about our Design for Manufacturing effort?
Why don't we build quality into the product design, by building quality into the part design, by building quality into the process design, by building quality into the procedure design?
Why is pass/fail good enough? Why don't we care about product and process marginality?
 
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I'll tell you exactly where: Every guy on here past the age of 30 knows at least one "Suzy" who drove her car's engine to failure by treating the low oil light as a suggestion. I know you think that making the plane idiot proof is a fix, but it's not. Paying one's dues to learn to fly weeds out those who won't take it seriously enough to survive. I think one could make a good comparison to the martial arts, where beginners spend a lot of time doing pushups and learning to bow before getting to the "good stuff". Now suppose instead they just took a bunch of 12 year olds and taught them lethal strikes and bone-breaking holds on day one.

Good input. And we'd have to find a way to deal with that before it were a feasible option.
 
Let's distinguish between a couple of different types of points I've been making. The first is the not nearly so realistic idea of Artificial Intelligence (Brain) helping Suzy not have to make so many decisions so she can just get from point A to point B with only 4 gauges, one red light, a go fast and slow knob, and a stick to go up, down, left, and right.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned it, but "Suzy's red light" already exists. It's called "B*tching Betty, and most of the EIS units have it. Don't want an audio warning? I'm sure a red light can be arranged. :rolleyes:

Seriously, having to look at oil temp. & pressure gauges every minute IS dumb, and not as safe as an EIS.

Want to get from A to B in a completely automated fashion? The technology already exists. Many cruise missiles have proven that. Don't want to explode when you get there? Fine, autoland technology is available today. :D


The second is the very realistic idea of dramatic improvements in cost and quality that can be realized in the next 5 years or less.

Its interesting to me that folks have been so quick to jump on the former and such little response to the latter. Why is that?

My comments about Suzy, although not theoretically impossible, are neither very realistic, at least in our lifetime. I completely understand experienced pilots who have undergone heavy doses of financial and intellectual discipline and sacrifice to get to where they are being offended by such simplistic views. But can we put that very minor point on the back burner for now?

Of much more interest to me is the very real improvements we could make today. So again I ask:

Why don't we utilize Statistical Process Control?
Why don't we have more automated manufacturing processes?
Why don't we have tool dedication?
Why don't we process map?
Why don't we quantify process risk?
Why don't we gather data? Why don't we make data-driven decisions in addition to intuition/experience-based ones?
Why do we limit our engineering data reduction effort to MS Excel and disregard tools like MathCAD and Minitab?
Why do we push problems down the line for someone else to deal with?
Why aren't we serious about our Design for Manufacturing effort?
Why don't we build quality into the product design, by building quality into the part design, by building quality into the process design, by building quality into the procedure design?
Why is pass/fail good enough? Why don't we care about product and process marginality?

What makes you think that Cessna, for example, isn't utilizing most or all of these standard engineering / business concepts / tools? Want to bet that Boeing isn't using all of them, plus many you haven't heard of?

It really does boil down to economics of scale. There is more money in parts for a 27" tube TV than in a Garmin SL30. Look at the respective prices. Toyota makes more engines in a year than Lycoming has made in it's entire history. Look at the respective prices.

Serious factory automation requires serious capitol investment. That investment will not be made without a strong expectation of return.

If you want cheaper, more advanced GA aircraft, just convince 100,000 of your buddies to buy one this year, and the next, and the next. I can guaranty you the dramatic improvements you are looking for. :rolleyes:
 
?????

Thought I'd inject some humor into this.

If it is a rhetorical question, why are we answering?
 
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