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  #1  
Old 01-04-2018, 10:40 AM
iaw4 iaw4 is offline
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Los Angeles, ca
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Default accident rates

I wanted to share a basic observation. I hope I have my numbers right, but I would be happy(ier) to be corrected.

About 10,000 Vans airplanes are flying these days. Looking at the 2015 and 2016 accident statistics at the AOPA data base, about 10 Vans airplanes have fatal accidents every year. That is, a 1-in-1000 death rate. For perspective,
this is about 10 times the death rate from opiods in the general population. Over 10 years of flying, a 1% chance of dying in one's airplane is nothing to sneeze it.

About half of Vans accidents are explainable as stupidity---some ******* (apologies) deciding to do aerobatics at 50' above altitude. Importantly, I can easily avoid such accidents myself. Surprisingly, only about 1 in 10 was IMC related. About 4-5 seem to have no clear cause(s). These are most worrying to me, because I do not know how to avoid them.

It would be great to see a better and less casual analysis of Vans serious accidents.
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  #2  
Old 01-04-2018, 02:43 PM
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ChuckGant ChuckGant is offline
 
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Wouldn't 1-in-1000 be a 0.1% death rate?

If you avoid the type of flying that adds a bit more risk such as low altitude aerobatics, formation flight, IMC, etc. and avoid risky behavior such as flathatting/barnstorming and flying outside of your skill limits your risk goes down significantly. Then you only need to worry about the risk associated with mechanical issues, which can be mitigated by following sound maintenance practices.

Another thought to add... aviation mishaps are usually discussed in mishaps or deaths per flight hours, so you really should compare other aircraft's records based on this criteria.
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  #3  
Old 01-04-2018, 02:48 PM
pjoshyjosh pjoshyjosh is offline
 
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I think he got the 1% by saying at .1% a year over 10 years becomes 1%...

pretty sure that's not how statistics work though...
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  #4  
Old 01-04-2018, 02:50 PM
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grubbat grubbat is offline
 
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Default by type

What does the data show by type? Are they all the same or does one type lend itself to being less accident prone?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iaw4 View Post
I wanted to share a basic observation. I hope I have my numbers right, but I would be happy(ier) to be corrected.

About 10,000 Vans airplanes are flying these days. Looking at the 2015 and 2016 accident statistics at the AOPA data base, about 10 Vans airplanes have fatal accidents every year. That is, a 1-in-1000 death rate. For perspective,
this is about 10 times the death rate from opiods in the general population. Over 10 years of flying, a 1% chance of dying in one's airplane is nothing to sneeze it.

About half of Vans accidents are explainable as stupidity---some ******* (apologies) deciding to do aerobatics at 50' above altitude. Importantly, I can easily avoid such accidents myself. Surprisingly, only about 1 in 10 was IMC related. About 4-5 seem to have no clear cause(s). These are most worrying to me, because I do not know how to avoid them.

It would be great to see a better and less casual analysis of Vans serious accidents.
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  #5  
Old 01-04-2018, 03:13 PM
BobTurner BobTurner is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pjoshyjosh View Post
I think he got the 1% by saying at .1% a year over 10 years becomes 1%...

pretty sure that's not how statistics work though...
Yes, that's not the absolutely correct answer. But it's very close. The correct answer is 0.9955% (to 4 digits) chance of dying over 10 years.
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  #6  
Old 01-04-2018, 03:25 PM
pjoshyjosh pjoshyjosh is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobTurner View Post
Yes, that's not the absolutely correct answer. But it's very close. The correct answer is 0.9955% (to 4 digits) chance of dying over 10 years.
So.. you're saying I have 2x chance of being in an accident this year then I did last year?

Meaning if you could fly for 100 years, you have 100% chance of being in an accident?

That's not how probability works. Each Flight/hour/year is it's own entity. Not added to the previous.
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  #7  
Old 01-04-2018, 04:16 PM
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Ironflight Ironflight is offline
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Ron Wantajja wrote a great series of articles in Kitplanes http dealt in detail with acccident statistics in the E-AB world back about five years ago. If you're a subscriber, you can search the archives for his name and find them. Fortunately, I've talked Ron in to updating his series with newer statistics and insights, so watch for those articles in the coming year!

Paul
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  #8  
Old 01-04-2018, 04:32 PM
iaw4 iaw4 is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pjoshyjosh View Post
So.. you're saying I have 2x chance of being in an accident this year then I did last year?

Meaning if you could fly for 100 years, you have 100% chance of being in an accident?

That's not how probability works. Each Flight/hour/year is it's own entity. Not added to the previous.
The exact formula is 1 - (1-ann-death-rate)^years . For small death rates and years, this is about ann-death-rate*years. Over 10 years, it is roughly (just under) 1%, indeed, but not exactly so. If you fly for 1,000 years, you have a 100% chance of being dead, because no one has managed to live for more than 120 years. If you fly for 100 years, it's probably pretty close to 100%, too. ;-). Incidentally, I fudged more by ignoring the change in the number of flying airplanes. And no one knows how many hours the Vans have flown---it would have been a much better number with this information.

my numbers came from https://www.aopa.org/asf/ntsb/search_ntsb.cfm . Choose: Make=Vans. Injury=FATAL; Build=Home Built.

We have had 26 fatal accidents, starting in 2015. 14 were in As (incl 12 and 10). 12 in tailwheels. Sorting by type: 2 in RV-12s, 2 in RV-10s, 3 in RV9As, 3 in RV-8s, 7 in RV-7s, 2 in RV-6s, 4 in RV-3/4s. [one was misclassified under Vans Company, rather than Vans.] If someone knows the number of flying aircrafts by type, we can see if some seemed less accident-prone than others.
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  #9  
Old 01-04-2018, 04:48 PM
pjoshyjosh pjoshyjosh is offline
 
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man.. I need to go play the lottery every day.

What you're saying is every time I play the lottery, I have a higher chance of winning!! love this...

Lots of things can go wrong in many situations - flying being one. Every time you go up you have the same chance of not coming back as the previous time. Not less of a chance.
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  #10  
Old 01-04-2018, 04:49 PM
slngsht slngsht is offline
 
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I doubt anywhere close to all 10,000 are actually flying.
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