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Probable Cause Database, understanding

BenNabors

Well Known Member
I spent some time looking at individual RV accidents from the accident database but one at a time did not give me a feel for what was going on. So I started downloading the database into an excel spreadsheet so I could analyze it.

Not done yet, but I thought I would share. I have spent more time creating the database and less evaluating the data.
I have broken it down by model number. I have entered data for everything except the RV-4. Anyone want to volunteer to enter the data for the RV-4. I started with the RV-7 and was not including all the data that is in the other models, plan to update.

Some quick observations:
1) If you have an inflight emergency, fly the airplane! A significant number of stalls when multitasking with an emergency in progress.
2.) You can see some differences in accident types based on model and pilot personalities associated with model type.
3.) Overall reliability between models is very similar, about 0.995 reliability per year. Some assumption made here, mainly looking at the last 5 years of flight data and not the early years. Rational was it was hard to estimate the number of flying aircraft in the early years.
4.) Failures of the airframe inflight are almost nonexistent. When they do fail, they are the result poor decision making. Example: Flying into an embedded thunderstorm. One exception was some of the early RV-3 wing structures before the service bulletin was issued.
5.) Nose wheels fail on rough terrain and hard landings, ( not sure of influence of after-maket improvements.)


Here is the link.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bw5FR8nYTWEIeGVXdzJvdjJpV28
 
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#2?

Interesting, how are you calculating the number of flying aircraft?


What personalities do you see associated with various model types?

FloodgatesPandorasboxCanofworms.jpg
 
Can of Worms and Pandora's Box

Interesting, how are you calculating the number of flying aircraft?


What personalities do you see associated with various model types?

The number of flying aircraft was a guess, I took the number of reported completed airplanes of each model, subtracted out those that had substantial damage or were destroyed. With models that have near a thousand flying, the rates as a function of time were fairly stable in the out years. In the early years after introduction they were all over the place indicating that the estimate method for the number flying early on was poor. For this question I pick the can of worms.

On personalities: Now that is Pandora's box, left for each person to figure out! It was a general observation as I was entering the data and reading each accident report. The number of formation flight and aerobatic accidents seemed more numerous for an RV-8 than say an RV-7, 9, 10, 12 (personality and mission). And yes, 9,10,12's are not aerobatic, but there is a big difference between 7's and 8's. No math yet to to substantiate, it is a work in progress. I have just entered the RV-6 data. I first entered the fatal accidents, and a couple of weeks later entered the other RV-6 accidents. It is a larger data base and I have not had a chance to study it (just finished last night), but I think it will be different than the 8's. There were also more ground loops in the 8's probably due to the fact that there are a larger percentage of tail wheel 8's than the side by side seating aircraft. I have not looked at any of the RV-4 as a comparison.
 
Fly the plane!

#1, #1, #1....!!!

The greatest revelation to my accident (two years ago today by the way) was how close I came to a low level stall trying to run the emergency check list when my engine died.

Fly the plane!

Ryan
 
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