The handy IFR ticket in the pocket

Today, both XM Weather and Weathermeister failed me. I would have had my tail between my legs and turned back home this morning if I hadn't had an IFR ticket and currency in my logbook. But, I never actually flew IFR today.

This morning's forecast and METARs were quite a bit better than when I headed to bed last night so there was no excuse for not jumping in the plane and starting the commute between southeast Houston and College Station (about 100 miles). VFR with ceilings at least 1400' the entire way. Clear at the destination. So, off I flew, skirting the Bravo airspace and listening to a Bob Edwards interview.

Just before I was to break out from under the Class B inverted wedding cake, the path looked almost black and I realized that clouds extended to within a couple hundred feet (or less!) of the ground. A quick check of the XM Weather showed a couple very small areas of lightest green along my extended path and ALL airport in the area VFR. The screen refreshed and still only a little, isolated light green showed. Hmm. I started to deviate to the northeast, where the visibility looked good. And, I deviated some more. The College Station ATIS was still 10 miles visibility with scattered clouds at 3600. I climbed to 5000' msl and still the clouds were high and black out the left side of the aircraft. I started considering my options of airfiling an IFR flight plan, but it seemed certain that this storm was isolated and filing takes time and hassle, especially with Houston Approach. I continued flying along the line and thought about sitting the plane down.

I couldn't seem to get anywhere but further from my destination, the radar and METARs still didn't register this line I was flying along, and I was past Huntsville, TX. I was befuddled. Things just didn't compute. I finally flew along an area of medium gray and I could see the ground through a substantial hole. It looked like the bottom of the clouds were probably 1500' msl or higher. Still the WM Weather told me every reporting station had high or no ceilings. College Station now reported few at 3600'. I decided to drop down and see if I could make it in under this line. I mentally developed a contingency plan if it didn't work. Climb back out to the southeast. Be ready to switch to instrument flying. Be ready to file, if needed.

Throttle back, prop forward, nose down. The hole was big enough to avoid the clouds but the bottoms were about 1200 agl. The rain started bounding on Mikey and the self-doubts grew. I pointed towards College Station. About a minute later, I could see growing lightness in the sky ahead of me and I started to relax. Probably only three minutes later, I was under a clear sky. I had passed under the line. The remaining flight into College Station was as promised.....easy VFR. I tucked my IFR ticket back into the pocket, filed a PIREP on this "hidden" line of rain/clouds/scud, and enjoyed the rest of the flight.

The next time I looked at the WM Weather, a band of green and yellow extended from nearly the coast southwest of Houston to Michigan. In our neck of the woods, it was only about five miles wide and there was not one airport along the band. As I continue to watch the weather today, the southwest-northeast band remains narrow here in Texas and marching southeastward, turning METARs to red along a straight line. Bright green dots indicated airports on each side.

Lessons learned today?
I love my weather capacity. Weathermeister for planning. XM Weather with radar and METARs in the cockpit. ATISs and AWOSs over the radio. But, even with all this capacity in a relatively airport-dense part of the country, a significant, rapidly building storm can elude our visibility. I know the radar often shows green when there is no rain but I had not seen this big of a storm not register on radar (and the XM was refreshing regularly). I guess it wasn't yet raining when I first hit the wall of low clouds.

I don't actually fly IFR very often. Mikey is only set up for "light" IFR and Houston Approach is reputedly not particularly IFR-friendly during my commute hours. But, this trip was perhaps one of a dozen or more where I was able to get to work because I knew I could file IFR and Ihave the skills to stay safe if the weather situation deteriorated. I've asked for and received special VFR clearances into and out of College Station many times, a privilege I probably wouldn't exercise without the IFR ticket and currency.

Did I make good decisions today? I'll have to reflect on that one for awhile. If the weather information had been complete, I should have and would have either filed IFR or worked at home today. If I had had no in-cockpit information, I almost certainly would have either turned back home or landed at some "green" airport southeast of the line to re-evaluate. But, I had lots of information (but not complete), knew the area well, and only I could evaluate the size of the hole and the height of the ceiling floor. Most importantly, IMHO, I had the skills and training that come with the IFR ticket. My judgment at the time was that I was acting prudently. In reality, I didn't have anything scary happen and I never entered a cloud or came within 1000' of any obstacles. But, I'll still spend some time over the next few days reflecting on my decisions. I'll probably drag Paul out for some safety pilot duties in the next week just to keep my edge. I'll review airfiling procedures tonight. I just might file for IFR a little sooner next time despite weather data that says everything is okay.....everything except the view out the window.

It was a very wierd little storm line in southeast Texas this morning and I think it was one of those experiences that ultimately will help make me a better pilot. At least, I won't trust my beloved XM Weather quite as much the next time the view out the window doesn't match the view on the screen.

Great write up Louise. Texas storm season is always fun. I can not count the number of times XM did not tell the real story over the years and it seems I have been stuck on the ground at Hobby more than anywhere else waiting out a popup or line to pass.

Pop-Up Weather

An Adventure, Louise!

Thanks for sharing your experience with us. Unforecasted, delayed-report ?pop-up? weather is something we all need to consider and plan for. I wonder if ADS-B-reported/displayed weather is any timelier than XM?

Thanks Again,

Bill Palmer

Yep. Tanya filed to get me to my birthday "party" on time this weekend into SAT itl. even though she only got to log about 5min. Actual. It is a huge advantage to have a built in safety pilot to stay current .

Louise,

That's exactly why I am working to get my IFR rating. I live in the Houston area and have been in similiar situation on occasion. I was flying back from Tyler on Saturday evening trying to get to Pearland before dark. As you know the south winds were strong, and my ground speed was ****. Keep in mind I am an RV wanna be and was flying my C172. I have XM on a 396 and checking clouds and forcast the entire trip. Houston KIAH was at 2000 feet overcast and forcast to be 1500 overcast at about my ETA. As I passed just east of Cleveland the overcast was about 1400. I was thinking to myself, I doubt I am going to make it to Pearland. KIAH was still at 2000 feet. The closer I got to Baytown the worse it got. I was just east of KIAH about 20 miles out and the cloud layer was down to about 1000' and Pearland had just went IFR, so I diverted to Crosby Dunham, my homebase, and landed with about 800' or 900' overcast. Dunham is only about 15 miles east of KIAH and still reporting 2000'. When I landed I was thinking " I need to hurry up and get my IFR rating". I am hoping to have it by the end of the summer. This was about the worst weather/low clouds I care to fly in. And to think at about 3000 or 4000 feet is was sunny blue skies and that is where I would have prefered to be and I could have shot an easy approach into Pearland with a 900' ceiling.

On another note, I was planning on making your RV get together this weekend, but I am going to check out Brad Olivers project and plan on moving it to Houston to finish. Wish me luck and looking forward to meeting you and Paul again.

We seem to be in a weather pattern

Good luck with the move and finish. Sorry you'll miss the Houston RV Builders gathering, though.

Yep, Paul was flying on Saturday and we also wondered if we were going to get in to Polly with the rapidly deteriorating weather in the afternoon on the southeast side of Houston. I had almost identical weather on the commute home on Friday.....lots of bumps and rolls with a big headwind followed by descending ceiling starting about the Missouri towers. Barely scooted into Polly in legal VFR.

Did I make good decisions today?

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Looks like pretty sound decision making and piloting to me.

1. You recognized fairly quickly something was not as it should be.
2. Took alternative actions promptly rather than "hoping" it would get better.
3. Planned a way out if your new course of action turned sour.
4. Landed safely.
5. looked back on and learned from the experience.

Thanks for sharing, now we all have learned something. Great job louise.

Louise Hose said:

I had almost identical weather on the commute home on Friday.....lots of bumps and rolls with a big headwind followed by descending ceiling starting about the Missouri towers. Barely scooted into Polly in legal VFR.

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We have all flown under such circumstances and were forced to make decisions to deal with whatever was going on. It always causes some reflection later posing the question, did I do the right thing? In this case, you did. It all worked out on both ends but not without some introspection which is very good.

You did push the edge of the box a little as always happens.

(A long time ago in another life in another airplane my son riding in the back said, Dad we sure are close to those trucks on the interstate....it was one of those days when the envelope was pushed more than it should have been due to weather but we got home safely. However, I never attempted such a flight again.)

No question, IFR training is most helpful in the decision making process when confronted with various weather situations. But would being on an IFR flight plan within the ATC system been a better idea?

Lots of days ATC does not have the airspace to keep our type of airplane out of weather we should not be in. They could provide a vector miles and miles around a system but ducking under the line, as you did VFR, sometimes is not an option within ATC due to obstruction limits and other traffic. So are we are better off VFR on your own?. Thats the dicey part of the equation. I have landed and watched a storm move by rather than proceed VFR and I was glad not to be in it on an IFR flight plan.

Your message on this subject is good reading, appropriate for the season and food for thought for everyone here. Thanks.

Our family of RV's and RV aviators has limits and we need to be reminded now and then what those limits are.

i would say check the lapse rate charts and know the "potential" for surprises would be another lesson learned or something you can do in the future to assess the overall risk of that happening

No doubt XM weather would be great to have. It would beat having to discuss weather with Flight Watch and understand what is going on in places I am not familiar with.

But you have to wonder if XM weather has or will lead people into a sense of situational knowledge that is incomplete as you experienced and the outcome will be negative.

Obviously, XM weather will not be the causal factor rather pilot misinterpretation.

SM Weathr - Great tool but still requires good judgment

Ron Lee said:

But you have to wonder if XM weather has or will lead people into a sense of situational knowledge that is incomplete as you experienced and the outcome will be negative.

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I think that's the main reason I took time to post. I'm still a big believer in XM Weather and it has helped make many of my trips safer and more efficient. But, it should NEVER replace judgment and the data that comes from looking out the window. Even the METARs were highly mis-leading.

In this particular case, I doubt that that FSS could have given me much better information than I had in the cockpit. Probably not nearly as much. That's why I filed a PIREP.

This is an excellent cautionary story for the (hopefully few) folks who still use XM Weather as a "tactical" weather penetration tool, not as a strategic big-picture resource as Louise used it.

Louise Hose said:

I think that's the main reason I took time to post. I'm still a big believer in XM Weather and it has helped make many of my trips safer and more efficient. But, it should NEVER replace judgment and the data that comes from looking out the window. Even the METARs were highly mis-leading.

In this particular case, I doubt that that FSS could have given me much better information than I had in the cockpit. Probably not nearly as much. That's why I filed a PIREP.

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This is a really important point that bears repeating. We all have to remember that XM is a weather DELIVERY service - not a weather report generator. Just because we have weather instantly delivered to the cockpit doesn't mean it isn't an hour old! METARS are still generated at about 55 minutes past the hour, so if it is 45 minutes past the hour, the data you are reading COULD be old (unless someone has issued a "special").

As Louise mentioned, listening to local AWOS is probably far better if you want current conditions in rapidly changing weather. Unfortunately here on the Texas Gulf Coast, in humid conditions, the weather can be VFR at one field and solid LIFR just ten miles away - in a geographically random area. So if you have a 20 mile stretch with no reporting, it is hard to guess what is there!

When it comes to XM weather, as an ex-actor once said, "Trust...but verify"...

I know that I am going to ruffle some feathers and catch a lot of heat of this but the post scares the **** out of me and might lead some to make a very bad choice. I have a bit of experience trying flying through lines of weather and around thunderstorms. There is no reason ever to duck under a line of convective activity in a RV or fly anywhere near convective activity in a RV. You can't visually assess a storms severity. Hail can be tossed as much as 10 miles laterally out of a storm. Flying under a convective cell at low altitude in a RV into heavy rain is a death wish pure and simple. Will you get away with it most times? Yes you will. Will you survive it every time? No you wont. When you put yourself near or under convective activity you are subjecting yourself to the possibility of lightning strike, hail damage, severe turbulence, microbursts and even engine failure because the rain can be so intense the engine can't get air.
Thunderstorms can develop at very high speeds. A aircraft can fly through your an area and 2 minutes later another aircraft can be destroyed in the same location where the first aircraft encountered a smooth flight. The classic example of this is Delta 191 where the crew was ducking under what seemed to be a small rain shower on final approach. Despite the fact that the aircraft still had excellent energy at ground impact and was indicating over 180 knots they still could not out climb the microburst the cell generated. Aircraft just 90 seconds ahead on the approach had no issues.

In a aircraft like a RV PLEASE PLEASE stay away from convective activity and don't ever try and duck under a line of storms or penetrate a line of storms unless you can find a gap of at least 10 miles between cells. Even that could still leave you open to severe hail damage. Many airline flight manuals require they stay at least 10 miles away from enroute thunderstorms and have at least a 20 mile gap to penetrate a line. Keep in mind they are working with excellent radars that give real time imagery. XM weather is almost always at least 15 minutes old. When dealing with thunderstorms 15 minutes is a eternity. Don't risk it. If its a line land and let it pass over your aircraft of just call it a day and go tomorrow.

George

You can bet that I wouldn't have flown through/under this system if there was any indication of thunderstorm build-up. You are absolutely right about avoiding lines of convective activity with potential lightening. But, there was no indication of that type of storm. No turbulence along the edges (or under it). Smooth as could be. No flashes of lightening. While the rain I went through was intense for my experience (Mikey's old style canopy hinges cause me to avoid rain), it wasn't thunderstorm intense. It was a bizarre set of clouds that extended nearly to the ground along most of the area. I watched it move through the rest of the day and no lightening activity was reported.

Since it was a weather situation that I didn't understand, there's a fair argument that sitting down and assuming it would pass would have been more prudent. I'm also pondering the wisdom of my decision. But, please don't get the impression that I was bouncing along in turbulence with lightening flashing outside the window.

Louise,

I re-read your OP to see if you mentioned the age of the XM weather you were looking at. I know you said it refreshed a few times, so does that mean the aging of what you were looking at was only minutes? At one point you said it refreshed later and showed the line, so I was just wunderin'.

I ask because I have seen good and poor aging/refreshing performance while using XM to avoid weather. That age (in minutes) is now a key item for me in my Wx evaluation.

A couple examples of good and poor aging (and the resulting decision) come to mind...all FWIW. First was heading home to Reno from TX, and getting blocked by a narrow line (green with a little yellow) near Vegas. I watched it flying from NM through AZ, and eventually was looking at XM WX that was 54 minutes old (pretty useless). XM still showed the line of green over my destination, and of course it had not moved. METARS were also just as old, and not good. I couldn't see clearly below the clouds ahead, the weather at interim bailout locations didn't appear as good as what XM was calling it, and I couldn't make the call that going over would get me by it and guarantee me that good weather was waiting at my destination, so I bailed and spent the night in Prescott.

Another time, a small line of green was right in my way crossing Wyoming, with a long deviation required to circumnavigate. XM showed some thinner spots, so I headed that way, knowing I had the gas to parallel and go around if needed. XM was only minutes old the entire time, and the wide thin spots matched with a view of high ceilings and little to no precipitation, so I shot through easily in good VFR.

The aging of my onboard weather products and the match to visual appearances made all the difference in these scenarios. And had either been red, I'd have gone another way completely. Its those gray areas (pun intended) of questionable, but not awful Wx where we can get in trouble, and I figure that's why you're evaluating this...a very mature approach.

Since my RV doesn't have that IFR ticket in its pocket, my IFR ticket doesn't come into play in the RV. Therefore, I stay VFR the way you did...and I'm a big chicken ...avoid, avoid, avoid, have an out, and bail if things don't meet your expectations. Sounds like you did that.

Sometimes we get closer to the edges of the envelope than we'd like, while still remaining safe, but that experience is what refines our ever growing judgement module. Sounds like it was maybe a little dicey, or at least a bit uncomfortable, but most of us have been there, and we all learn from the discussion.

Defaulting to IFR is a good out to have, and I'd add the caveats: if you also evaluate freezing level , surface winds and ceilings, approach capability, and of course, any convective stuff. George's reference to rapidly changing Wx and DAL 191 is a good one. I do know that if there had been red stuff or lightning, that you would have been in the chicken coop with me!

This is the kind of hangar flying that keeps us all thinking, and lets us know taking an out is not a sign of weakness, and evaluating yourself when you pressed on, even when you stayed safe, is a sign of good judgement!

Cheers,
Bob

If anyone actually cares enough to want to see the situation a bit more, my Spot track is still current at: http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=0xQrhemIXZi9DS43kiz6jrMhQyl4oO0dD. I first identified the questionable weather just about 0811 (current location 10) and I dove for the hole at approximately 0835 (a little past currently location 12). The weather refreshed about the time I diverted (about 0809) and at least twice more during the diversion. It wasn't showing much rain at all until the refresh just when I broke out under clear skies, about 0839. I didn't realize the weather was a line (chock that up to a dense brain lacking caffeine in the early morning?) and really thought I was working around some odd, localized skuddy area until the bright line came up later. I do feel a little foolish for not recognizing it was a "line" and that's another lesson in my experience. So far, the main thing I've learned from the experience is: 1. A significant line of weather can be hidden in the weather briefings and on XM even in a pretty airport-dense area; 2. When confronted with a similiar situation, zoom out on the XM and see what's showing 100 miles away. I suspect I would have realized this line of activity had extended much further southwest than predicted if I had looked at the bigger picture in the cockpit. Otherwise, none of the weather resources I used alerted me to a potential line of convective activity in the area I was travelling. If I had recognized it as a "line of convective activity", I probably would have set down somewhere and called into my morning meeting.



I've used XM and Weathermeister a lot and I've never seen a weather situation like this one. As the Spot track shows, I spent about 25 minutes trying to come to a decision about what was going on and make a decision. I've seen XM take a long time to refresh occasionally, but it seemed to be right on the (more-or-less....I wasn't timing it) 10 minute interval. I just haven't seen such major weather not show up for such a long time when XM is refreshing frequently. It is quite possible that there was almost no rain in those dark clouds until about the time I dove through and, hence, nothing much to show on the radar.

Louise,

One thing I've learned over the years is that no two weather situations are quite alike. They may look the same, smell the same , etc, but each one is unique. Whether you are using a radar to evaluate and avoid thunderstorms, or XM to evaluate and really avoid bad or other weather, it really becomes a matter of combining what you see on the "scope" with what you are looking at, and what ATC or PIREPS are telling you. Ranging out on radar or XM is a great tool, like tilt on a radar is. (I know we're not radar equipped, its just an analogy, of course).

Each time you confront a Wx situation, you compare it to past experiences, utilize all the data before you, and make a decision. And with each, your internal Wx experience database grows, for use the next time.

And if your spider sense really starts to tingle, listen, and choose another option (one of those outs you gave yourself!)

So one way to look at this is a Wx experience database development, and spider sense development flight. I have a lot of those in my logbook!

Cheers,
Bob

Thanks for the PIREP. Living out here in SoCal where I experience little to no WX I love reading about the flying and WX experiences of others across the country. Hopefully when faced with a decision about flying and WX the experience and opinions of others will help me make a wise and not a foolish choice.

Any chance the flight could have gone on top?

I looked at the spot record. As you mentioned, you made quite a detour on the morning of the 11th which indicates things did not look good on the route. I assume you were down low, looking for an area of light and a way through, finally saw it and made the left turn toward College Station.

Was there ever a chance to climb to see how high that stuff was?

If conditions are VFR on both ends, going up always feels safer to me than going low. That of course is not a hard rule, but early morning flights can be a piece of cake above the low level early morning crud. This stuff usually does not have enough moisture to show up on radar, fog almost never does, and consequently it won't be on XM either. But the AWOS reports along the route do provide good current info on ceiling and visibility.

Just my opinion or course, but if the weather is generally a 1000 and 3 along the route, going above the clouds is a very viable option in my book.

These days, the tops around here are pushing over 11000'. Summer in Texas. I wouldn't be anyplace else, but it is a tricky decision. Another couple of weeks, the tops will be 14500'+.

That would be a normal day, David

Many a day I do exactly what you suggest on my commute to College Station and that was my initial expectation. It is common to have low fog and clouds along the route. Physically, I could have climbed when I first encountered the clouds (I think) and gotten over, but I was trapped under the Class B airspace. In fact, I remained trapped under the controlled space for quite awhile as I tried to skirt to the northeast. By the time I broke out from the space, I had an ~5000' overcast. The clear sky was back over the Bravo airspace.

Yeah, I could have called up Houston Approach for permission into Bravo, but my limited experience working with those guys has been that I probably would have been sent out of the space, not into it.

Evening,

the thread and post about being cautious and maininting SA is very appropriate. The only thing I'll add is using FlightWatch.

I know that sometimes FlightWatch is a PITA to reach them, but, if you want to know the current situation, or get a heads up about the WX 100 miles ahead, giving them a call has always yielded postive results for me.

They can't make a decision for you, but, they can give you a real-time peek at the radar, satelite, and observations. This may confirm, affirm or totally confuse your current appraisal of the situation, but, that in and of itself, can give you a clue if you should bail out (so to speak) of a bad situation.

Safe flying, spring is sprung, summer is fast approaching and DSC's are on the way.

Cheers

gciampa said:

Evening,

the thread and post about being cautious and maininting SA is very appropriate. The only thing I'll add is using FlightWatch.

I know that sometimes FlightWatch is a PITA to reach them, but, if you want to know the current situation, or get a heads up about the WX 100 miles ahead, giving them a call has always yielded postive results for me.

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That's a good reminder if you don't have onboard weather, but if you do have XM, then Flightwatch is completely redundant - their weather is no more up to date than what comes over the satellite. I miss the old days when there were actual FSS guys at airports around the country that could look out the window for you...