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Speculation: Avionics in 5-10 Years?

Bill_H

Bill_H

Well Known Member
Google Books has free on-line Flying magazines back to the beginning. So, looking in 2003 you find the introduction of the Avidyne Entegra - the first more-or-less totally integrated EFIS style avionics. The G1000 follows. The revolutionary Garmin 430 had come out in 1998.

So where do you think we will be in 5 years? 10 years?

Five years? How about........
I would guess pretty much what we have (Think Dynon Skyview and equivalents) but:
More integrated and totally touch-screen.
Voice commands for all functions including natural query: "Where's the nearest airport with an on-field restaurant and auto gas?"
Highway in the sky (HITS)
Routine HITS display for every landing at every airport, generated on-board. As you approach an uncontrolled airport, the system knows the wind direction, and produces a HITS for a standard traffic pattern entry (it knows the traffic pattern direction for each runway) and approach. It asks (recommends) or you tell it the runway you intend to use. Computed vertical guidance to any runway. Gives warnings if you are low or slow, so you can pretend to be a ****** Airlines 777 pilot and ignore them...)
Some HUD integration using Google Glass or equivalent.
The system will automatically buffer all radio communications and answer your question "Was that last transmission for me?" by replaying it.
Or the screen might also have a continuously running text-to-speech conversion window: "ATC says N412BR Climb and maintain 6000, switch to 127.5."
Intelligent diagnostics. Your plane emails you that "Over the last 3 flights, your oil temperature has been trending 5 degrees higher, even taking into account the ambient conditions."

10 years?
 
The hottest trend.............

In 5 to 10 years, round gauges will be all the rage. You guys with all your fancy TV screens will be very jealous of us round gauge folks...........but we'll probably still be nice to you..................probably :D
 
DaAV8R said:
In 5 to 10 years, round gauges will be all the rage. You guys with all your fancy TV screens will be very jealous of us round gauge folks...........but we'll probably still be nice to you..................probably :D
Click to expand...


This is my perfect panel...timeless!:D With the -8 or -12, if I don't fly for two weeks I have to get the darn books out before I fly.

pmmn.jpg
 
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In 10 years, the whole panel will just be one giant large rectangular wide screen / touch screen running the full width of the plane, and you can display whatever you want on it... even a digitally generated scene of an old school round gauges panel. All the actual electronics will be inside small aluminum boxes mounted somewhere behind the panel out of sight, and connected together on a networked bus.

EDIT: And there will probably only be two companies left on the market making these systems...
 
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I don't think it would be too tough to do things today like automatically calculate the best runway at a given airport, if the METAR os known for that airport, and display or just fly the pattern entry. Isn't METAR data broadcast as part of ADS-B? We may only be 2 or 3 software revs away from that.

If we see a generally available data link such as 4G cellular or something similar that's useable at altitude, we'll see a wole new world of stuff open up. Not to mention too many pilots losing all situational awareness as they cruise along on autopilot, reading VAF posts.

I think over the near term we'll see some interfaces for which we now pay extra, included in nearly everything. Bluetooth of some flavor, for sure. Maybe not in 5, but in 10 years I'll be surprised if I still have to plug in my headset. No batteries to replace either; the built-in battery pack will recharge the same way my toothbrush does now, inductively, no connector needed. Ditto for my cell phone and tablet.

I expect we'll see more certified IFR GPS available than just the Big G, and I expect we'll see more and more integration -- EFIS with the COM radios built in, along with intercom, audio panel, etc. We'll see the end of NAV radios being by most pilots. I don't think they'll be as far gone as LORAN, but I suspect in ten years you'll see NAV radios and CDI/GS indicators placarded INOP as often as you do ADF stuff now. When it breaks people are just going to stop fixing it.

Displays are going to get bigger, brighter, higher resolution, better 3D terrain displays, synthetic vision and HITS (and maybe even IR night vision) will become standard.

Just my $.02 worth.
 
ATC instructions will appear in text format, so if you forget your assigned altitude you just have to be able to read. Or maybe not even read, there will be an alert if you're off more than 5 degrees.
 
Whats Next????

....Most likely in a few years you will just sit home and pretend you are flying somewhere on your computer. It will be integrated with the food channel so you can pretend you are eating when you get there. Then link to a girly channel so you can simulate an erotic encounter with a beautiful woman, and then have a few drinks in the cyber-bar, get a cyber cops DUI. link to court TV to pay and serve your time, then fly home. All without leaving the nest...:rolleyes:
 
AoA presented on a Google Glasses type display, so it is always there in front of you no matter where you are looking.
Can select it on or off if you don't want it, or have it just for approach and/or takeoff.
John
 
DaAV8R said:
Is that the front hole of a PT-22?
Click to expand...

Yes, the rear hole did not have a clock.
eodq.jpg


The student flew and soloed from the rear seat. Communications between the student and instructor was one-way via a gosport (a speaking tube). The instructor would scream at the student via a mouthpiece. The student wore a stethoscope type of headset connected by the speaking tube. All the student could do was listen and comply with the instructions of the usually loud and highly animated instructor and then later get reamed out by the same after landing.

rb73.jpg




This was "avionics" in its purest form. Just required a pilot, a map, some roads or railroads to follow, a head on a swivel, and an understanding of colored flag or flare signals given for takeoff and landing clearances.

My Cessna 195 had a compartment where flares were ejected from the top of the aft baggage compartment to signal overhead a field for a night landing.

From the 1950's through the early 70's, the rate of change in avionics was relatively slow. Now days every 3 weeks your latest panel upgrade becomes functionally obsolete and has an immediate adverse affect on aircraft valuation. You read about it all the time, some VAF'er is now on his third panel upgrade in a 4 year old airplane. Gads...yes, my cockpit is now glass...but I sure do miss the good old days...you just kicked the tires and lit the fire...now I have to read a manual for about an hour before I fly anywhere.
 
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Maybe in a few years we won't have panels, there will be a couple wires going to quick connectors on temples giving the instructions to us directly thus keeping our eyes outside the flight deck watching for planes with the old technology. The next phase will be our autopilot reading the text messages that were mentioned earlier and then acting upon them. By then most of will be already planted and pushing up daisies.
 
it's going to be heads up display

it's going to be heads up display. no more panels to wire and no more cutting square holes in panels. no one really likes to cut square holes anyway. just put the projector on the glare shied and speak into the mic for which screen or gauge you want to see. closest airport, just speak for it. cheapest fuel, just ask what the price is today. best $100 hamburger, just say " OK Google or OK Garmin, I'm hungry", and off you go. and the beauty with HUD is that you might actually look outside from time to time.
 
I mentioned this in another thread, but the way to initially learn formation flying will be with a Google Glass app that will generate the lead plane. You will also be able to do games at altitude like "fly under the virtual power lines until you find a gap" (a recurring nightmare of many pilots!). Or even training things like "CUT POWER and power-off land on the virtual airport glass-rendered at 1000 AGL"

also - Dynon and Garmin - we know you are reading - what say you?
 
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nah,,

Nah In a few years we will just launch our RVs and send them flying. When they return! we will down load the flight data to see if? ,,, ? we had a fun or were terrified!!:eek:
 
DAGO said:
Communications between the student and instructor was one-way via a gosport (a speaking tube). The instructor would scream at the student via a mouthpiece. The student wore a stethoscope type of headset connected by the speaking tube.
Click to expand...

I grew up in the front hole of a PT-22. I tagged along on the trip to Texarkana, TX to retrieve the airplane as a basket case. My dad restored the airplane and we attended many airshows in it. We had rigged a couple of leather helmets with a gosport and used them for communication. They worked reasonably well. I'm sure this has much to do with the reason I prefer the old school stuff to this day. All kidding aside, the old airplanes and panels really are timeless.

That seems like yesterday.
 
Show what matters

Realistically, why do you need to see any data if it is in the green? I am thinking same real-estate, but a 'pooter pays attention to the engine instruments and really only interjects them if the trend is towards an unpleasant number (some helicopters kinda do this already). If you had google glass type goggles, why put ANYTHING in the panel.
 
I think it's an open question because within ten years we are certain to have flying cars. That's what they say.
 
No more talking except for emergencies.

Local VFR fun flights just hit local, and return to base when ready to land.

For trips:

Input trip on the map (aircraft 'knows' it capabilities/parameters), FAA responds with confirmed or suggested alternate routing with virtual road signs that appear, altitude, heading, and airspeeed bugs that are slaved. Autopilot slave optional, but probable. You accept or try again.

Each road sign / instruction is acknowledged with an acceptance or rejection button press. Plus the aircraft is being watched to confirm compliance.

Routing automatically considers weather/wind, airspace restrictions, and issues clearances.

Other aircraft, airports, checkpoints, are highlighted on the moving map and displays.

If control needs to talk to you they can call you direct or send you a text.

Outside of emergencies (and safety overwatch) the only human needed in the loop is the pilot.

For individuals without new equipment just keep doing it the present way, the system will know where you are and possibly your intentions.

Anyway just some thoughts.

-Dave
 
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DAGO said:
Yes, the rear hole did not have a clock.
eodq.jpg


The student flew and soloed from the rear seat. Communications between the student and instructor was one-way via a gosport (a speaking tube). The instructor would scream at the student via a mouthpiece. The student wore a stethoscope type of headset connected by the speaking tube. All the student could do was listen and comply with the instructions of the usually loud and highly animated instructor and then later get reamed out by the same after landing.

rb73.jpg




This was "avionics" in its purest form. Just required a pilot, a map, some roads or railroads to follow, a head on a swivel, and an understanding of colored flag or flare signals given for takeoff and landing clearances.

...{snip}....
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Thanks! This made my day!

I spent a good deal of my private pilot time flying a Citabria with a "minimum required" VFR panel. Flew the darn thing all over the place with just a handheld GPS and a paper "nav log" for backup.

I'm an old avionics tech, and a bit of a gadget geek. But, sometimes my head hurt$$ from thinking about installing a "glass panel" in my -8.
 
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Many of you guys are way to optimistic about what may happen. We're reaching the limits of what can be done in the plane... next step up is integration with control. And that will take A LONG TIME.

My expectation is that we'll get what we already have, but with fancier touch screens (already happening, but still not sold on that) and heads up display (liking the idea of that). Someone will eventually come up with auto-throttle for GA (which I don't see much use in) and auto-land (perhaps important for my passenger, in case I drop dead in cruise).

Whatever... it'll be fun to watch.
 
What will we get, or what do we need?

I'm amazed nobody has said this, but to me, the major problem with avionics is the user interface (UI). All of the modern EFIS UIs are different, and all of them have problems. But IMHO, the biggest problem is that they require the use your hands and look down. NO VOICE CONTROL.

Imagine the following, a not very hypothetical situation from a typical departure from ADS down to the glider club: [TODR presses "AVIONICS" button on stick] tune comm 1-2-4-point-3 "confirm comm dallas approach one-two-four-point-three?" yes [BING] swap comm [BING]

[TODR checks in with the friendly folks at Dallas approach]

THEN: [press "AVIONICS" button on stick] nav new flight plan current position direct dallas love field direct redbird airport direct midway airport direct TSA "confirm new flight plan direct D-A-L direct R-B-D direct J-W-Y? direct T-A-one-one" yes [BONG] [flight plan is automatically displayed on map with first leg highlighted, and ETE, leg distance and ETA displayed on MFD]

AND THEN: [press "AVIONICS" button on stick] autopilot engage follow flight plan climb this speed to 2 thousand 5 hundred [BONG] "autopilot engaged following current flight plan climbing at niner-five knots to 2 thousand 5 hundred" [appropriate AP symbology is displayed on PFD]

You get the idea. Voice control - when it is done properly - beats a ton of buttons and touch screens.

TODR
 
the_other_dougreeves said:
What will we get, or what do we need?

I'm amazed nobody has said this, but to me, the major problem with avionics is the user interface (UI). All of the modern EFIS UIs are different, and all of them have problems. But IMHO, the biggest problem is that they require the use your hands and look down. NO VOICE CONTROL.

Imagine the following, a not very hypothetical situation from a typical departure from ADS down to the glider club: [TODR presses "AVIONICS" button on stick] tune comm 1-2-4-point-3 "confirm comm dallas approach one-two-four-point-three?" yes [BING] swap comm [BING]

[TODR checks in with the friendly folks at Dallas approach]

THEN: [press "AVIONICS" button on stick] nav new flight plan current position direct dallas love field direct redbird airport direct midway airport direct TSA "confirm new flight plan direct D-A-L direct R-B-D direct J-W-Y? direct T-A-one-one" yes [BONG] [flight plan is automatically displayed on map with first leg highlighted, and ETE, leg distance and ETA displayed on MFD]

AND THEN: [press "AVIONICS" button on stick] autopilot engage follow flight plan climb this speed to 2 thousand 5 hundred [BONG] "autopilot engaged following current flight plan climbing at niner-five knots to 2 thousand 5 hundred" [appropriate AP symbology is displayed on PFD]

You get the idea. Voice control - when it is done properly - beats a ton of buttons and touch screens.

TODR
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Totally. And the technology is there for that. I mean in my iphone at least. UI IS where it's at. Why do you think apple is dominating the phone market- it's not the fastest or this or that, it's nice to use.

To me the big things I want in my plane is 100% traffic coverage for avoidance- excited for 2020. And the computer controlled mixture thing, can't remember the name of it. Again a lot of this stuff exists its all about prices coming down.

Great thread. I think improving safety with technology is so important.
 
I have yet to see a voice control implementation that does not suck in devious and infuriating ways. Those could be dangerous in an aircraft. It would have to work a LOT better than the system in my truck, in my wife's car, on my phone or on those of 9 out of 10 people who use their voice-activated phones (yes, iThingies too) to send nearly incomprehensible text messages and emails.
 
The reason your smart phone can do voice commands is that it is always connected to the network. The phone doesn't recognize your voice commands, but it can send the audio file quickly to a network then on to a huge server that figures out what you said. That's basically how Apple's Siri and Google Voice work.
That being said, the real trick will be bringing network connectivity to the cockpit and all of the avionics in your airplane can then talk to the internet.
 
bruceh said:
The reason your smart phone can do voice commands is that it is always connected to the network. The phone doesn't recognize your voice commands, but it can send the audio file quickly to a network then on to a huge server that figures out what you said. That's basically how Apple's Siri and Google Voice work.
That being said, the real trick will be bringing network connectivity to the cockpit and all of the avionics in your airplane can then talk to the internet.
Click to expand...

Exactly, but, I hate my IPad for voice, my Samsung Galaxy 3 phone is much better for voice recognition, for some reason?
 
In the OP I mentioned Flying Magazines online from 10 years ago. One I was looking at had a sleek flying car ad for a "Aerospectives taero 4000." Website defunct, no info available from a quick search. Ever hear of it?
 
1. I'll have to go thru TSA airport security each time I want to get to my hanger to drive a few rivets.
2. My ipad screen will be bright enough to see the synthetic view depicting a lifelike view of the ground
3. I'll have to align my cranium for 30 sec prior to taxi so that the HUD and glasses depict a properly aligned display
4. My intercom will use 3 D steriopsis to remind me to pull carb heat on my 1950 designed O360
5. Advertisements for my top most frequently purchased items will play on the EFIS each time I fly near a Walmart.
6. A notice will display on my screen as I listen to ATIS asking me for my iTunes password and whether I authorize the payment of $1.99 to the FAA for the pending landing.
 
DaleB said:
I have yet to see a voice control implementation that does not suck in devious and infuriating ways. Those could be dangerous in an aircraft. It would have to work a LOT better than the system in my truck, in my wife's car, on my phone or on those of 9 out of 10 people who use their voice-activated phones (yes, iThingies too) to send nearly incomprehensible text messages and emails.
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Well, just remember how bad touch screen smart phones were 10 years ago. Oh, wait, there weren't any. Its hard to believe the iPhone came out in summer 2007 - 6 years ago. So is it far out to think that decent voice recognition can be made great in a few years?

Voice recognition can be done really awfully, but then so are a lot of the UIs in modern cars (Hello, Acura, are your designers competing to see who can get 100+ buttons on the dash first?).

When its done right, its great. The key is to (1) get the recognition right and (2) design a system that gives you a readback AND displays the new inputs on the screen so you can detect and correct it if its wrong.

TODR
 
Change

The biggest change in avionics will come with automation of airplanes that fly themselves like drones and you will have to get OK from TSA to go around the patch in Ten Buck Too and if you try to buzz your buddys house the TSA will push a button and your plane will auto land at the nearest airport with TSA cops and they will arrest you.
Bob
 
My guesses:

+ A "reasonably affordable" ($2-3k or so) ADS-B out solution with essentially blanket approval for all airplanes (because there has to be some way to get all those certified aircraft 2020 compliant). This would be a standalone unit that replaces your transponder and has the TSO GPS (no database, just position) and Mode S built in.

+ Another HUD or two for experimental aircraft, not based on Google Glasses but rather a more traditional combiner setup. This would push prices down a little bit, I think.

+ I'm hoping for a more affordable LPV-capable GPS by the time I'm ready for one. Right now the cheapest ones seem to be $6k; and the big G has a lock on the whole market.

+ One or two companies might be offering some kind of EVS camera that you could either feed to a dedicated screen or pipe into an EFIS (I think Dynon has mentioned they will have video-in capability at some point).

+ Highway-in-the-Sky guidance based on selected NAV/GPS flightplan or approach guidance.

+ FADEC-like units for fuel-injected engines. We're close with things like EFII, but I'm thinking something with no mixture control at all--just throttle and (if equipped) prop.


I think a big driver in all this will be whether the FAA adopts its ARC's Part 23 recommendations (which among other things propose a "non-commercial" category for light aircraft like Canada's owner-maintained program, and relaxation of the requirements for installing new equipment under the justification that the added safety benefits of, say, a Skyview or G3X, or AOA system, greatly outweigh the risk from it being non-certified and not STC'd or 337'd).
 
As a hobby I spend a lot of my time writing software for drones (www.diydrones.com / andropilot / www.droneshare.com). I'll kick in my prediction for 10 years:

Many fewer pilots - drones are making great progress and I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing "GA drones" deployed in <5 yrs.
 
I think you'll be pleasantly surprised to know that we've already got some of the stuff on your wishlist!

rmartingt said:
+ I'm hoping for a more affordable LPV-capable GPS by the time I'm ready for one. Right now the cheapest ones seem to be $6k; and the big G has a lock on the whole market.
Click to expand...

GRT is actively working on it.

rmartingt said:
+ One or two companies might be offering some kind of EVS camera that you could either feed to a dedicated screen or pipe into an EFIS (I think Dynon has mentioned they will have video-in capability at some point).
Click to expand...

GRT has had FLIR video input with PFD instrument overlay for many years in our Horizon systems. See the July 2013 issue of Kitplanes-- our friend Ironflight wrote a review and took this picture.

FLIR2.png


rmartingt said:
+ Highway-in-the-Sky guidance based on selected NAV/GPS flightplan or approach guidance.
Click to expand...

GRT has had Highway-In-The-Sky for synthetic approaches and glideslope overlay since the first Horizon EFIS came out almost 10 years ago.

I really like the voice commands idea. Too bad I am just a pilot. However, I do know a couple of pretty talented engineers... :D
 
+ FADEC-like units for fuel-injected engines. We're close with things like EFII, but I'm thinking something with no mixture control at all--just throttle and (if equipped) prop.
Click to expand...

Our system has a "mixture knob" for tuning purposes. During normal ops, all fuel management is automatic and the mixture knob does not have to be manipulated by the pilot. It is really a "tuning knob" - we should probably rename it.

Robert Paisley
 
In 10 years or less...

How about no discrete wiring for FWT sensors and transducers. Just connect the system cable from point to point "daisy chain" style. Only one firewall penetration.
 
Mark C - great idea! Industrial control system field sensors already have such an architecture. (Fieldbus / Profibus) Some engine sensors are nothing but on-off switches or resistors or thermocouples. What about a universal translation box? Has lots of contacts on one side for the sensors and the other side is a USB or Ethernet output transmitting a standardized language, that goes to a hub or to any EFIS that speaks the language. (Dynon's engine module is kinda-sorta like this but the Dynon boxes still use a mix of true networked connections and individual serial port connections.) Every device simply connects into the network bus via USB or Ethernet.
 
a few predictions:

+ HUDs that become affordable and work, possibly google glass style, possibly traditional

+ Better UI, more successful UI elements trickling down from the top Airline/Bizjet avionics.

+ Cheap and reliable datalink to ground of some sorts.

+ Better integration with charting, e.g. automatic taxi chart display after landing etc...

+ clean up of the many different protocols / analog inputs etc... into somewhat more networked/bus fashion.

+ more remote mounted units that automatically integrate with the main displays. vhf1 or 2 or 3? no problem, just add the remote boxes and antennas where convenient.

+ boxes will move closer to the "source", air data computer around the pitot, engine sensor interface firewall forward, not requiring all wiring / tubes to be routed to the panel.

+ better integration between fixed and portable stuff. bluetooth/wifi. prepare the flightplan on your tablet in the hotel, upload it when sitting in the plane, including the navdata update from last night.
after the flight download efis, engine data and gps track logs, that kind of stuff.

+ QWERTY or FMS type keboards

+ autoland/autothrust/bad weather capability/radio altimeters and egpws will eventually come to GA.


/ ambivalent regarding the touchscreens... can be ok for some applications, fine for EFB type stuff but not primary avionics IMHO. much prefer hardware interface. glad that AFS and now Garmin have all gone for more buttons, rotary encoders, joysticks, vert. speed wheels, flight control unit type panels etc...
most touchscreens are a compromise (UI elements need to be big and waste display space to be reliable) and "sticky fingerprints" don't go well with sunlight/flying environment. so somewhat skeptical about primary flight touchscreens.

- voice control. basic tech has been around for years, can't see it truly working as long as ATC and passengers are there for a distraction. nonetheless in a very noisy environment. also, reliability would need to be 200% in a fire and forget fashion, if every step/input needs to be monitored and verified during a few seconds each it's unusable. in contrast on simple buttons with great reliability, a blind press is often sufficient.

- anti-icing. no easy, small, lightweight and simple fix for that for the smallest class planes. biggest problem with bad weather capability.

- ADS-B. will be mandatory but won't deliver all the promises.

- CPDLC. not practical for GA type flying and short term tactical stuff.
 
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