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Regret and the 'no go' decision

Evening Bob,
I saw this post the other morning while I was doing something before going to work but didn't have the chance to really read it at the time. Your story reminded me of two students I had back when I was instructing.
I'll call them Fred and Joe.
Fred was in the consulting business and wanted to learn to fly to help his business to get around and see clients. Very smart, very motivated and as it turned out a pretty good stick. During his pvt training I was constantly having to reign him in. After he got his pvt he built some time and then immediately started on his instrument. When he was done there he bought himself a very nicely equipped turbo RG spam can and flew all over.
Joe was in the High Tech industry and wanted to fly for fun and a little business. Joe was also very smart and motivated but Joe was also very cautious. Joe too flew for a bit and then earned his instrument and even multi engine ratings and flies his own cabin class twin.
Point is, even though they are both competent and now (nearly 20 years after I taught them to fly) experienced pilots, I never worry about Joe. He knows what his limitations are and is not afraid in the slightest to say no.
Your comment about sitting in the rocking chair in the sun thinking about the trip sums it all up. You were home and comfortable wondering if you had done the right thing rather than in the airplane trying to get yourself out of a jam.
 
So this is the day I would've tried to fly. As it turned out, IFR conditions persist from North Dakota, across Nebraska, Missouri, and down to the Gulf with icing to the surface along the most of the viable routes.

but remember...each flight has it's own decision. It's easy to get lulled into a direction based on past decisions. good or bad.

I'm a newbie for long crosscountry flights myself. So when I went to GNAR II in Washington in june of 2011, I took a very experienced friend with me. I am certain I would have gotten stuck overnight without him guiding me through the weathre decision process and routing. then last year when I took my daughter with me to Texas, the weather was supposed to be good leaving and returning. BUT...she was 1hr late getting to the airport departure morning. I was pacing & waiting as the weather was closing in the mountains east of us. I told her..we'll go take a look at the pass, but we may turn around and call it a day. I always had an out, but we scud ran the first 30miles or so. we had a great 4 days in TX, but we also had a plan and money for a return ticket if need be.

Lessons I learned from both those events are. Always have a safe out, but its worth taking a look many times.
 
Good decision, Captain!

As the pilot in command, you are charged with making many decisions, large and small, to ensure safety of flight. You must make each of those decisions with the information you have available. If information later changes, that does not invalidate your earlier decision. I applaud you for making the safe decision, and in this case you even get the benefit of having later information validate your choice! I hope you and your son have an even better adventure together soon! Thanks for the great write up and fine example.
 
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Always have a safe out, but its worth taking a look many times.

Yep. Yep. Yep. That's my philosophy to a "T", and one I try to drum into every student's head. The best thing is, the "always leave yourself a way out" part applies to almost every part of flying, from cross countries to aerobatics to touch and goes in the pattern.
 
Lessons I learned from both those events are. Always have a safe out, but its worth taking a look many times.

Well, yeah, I guess. In this case the question wasn't the flight out, it was the flight back. The only way I could just "go up and take a look" is if I made the flight down.

So it appears the thread breaks down along the line that people recommend having gone in the first place, but taking a look at things for the flight back... and people who think not going at all was the correct call.

Would I make the same decision again? Hard to say, but probably, all things being equal and assuming I'm flying at the same time of year... these storm systems at this time of the year can be pretty complex and, this one turned out to be everything as advertised. A different time of year and a shorter distance, I'd probably just go and worry about the return trip on one of the extra days off.

It's also worth pointing out the Indians played like garbage at all the games we would've ended up back at.

And Patrick reported the other day that it worked out well for him school wise as he's better prepared now for the test he has.
 
Your choice of NoGo due to the return trip weather was correct for this flight. If the weather during your return date had been really nice, would you be kicking yourself for not going?
I think you made a good informed decision. I was just trying to point out that each flight needs to be evaluated on its own. My Washington trip, I never would have even left home, my friend said lets go see, we can always come back. Granted your AZ trip is a much more complex decision.
Retirement might help some of us expand our limits. Weather delays and overnighting are probably easier when you don't have gethomeitis.

Anyway, good post for folks like you and I to learn from.
 
Gethomeitis

I have flown small airplanes for a living and for fun for 32 years or so. Not counting my commuter or 135 time I probably have several thousand hours of small airplane time, and probably 2/3 of that is cross country. Probably half of that is cross country in hard VFR aerobatic planes, i.e. minimal radios, minimal instrumentation and no gyros. After one experience of scud early on, I decided I did not care for it. I am willing to go take a look, and will fly out even if the return flight looks iffy, but I do that knowing full well I may have to delay my return flight (or leave early), or, depending on the distance, park the plane and spring for a rental car or airline ticket(s). I would say I have delayed flights, or left early, on average 5 or 6 times a year, or maybe more, and rented a car or got an airline ticket once every couple of years. Once recently, when I didn't need to be back but my wife did, I bought her an airline ticket, and I waited it out. Often I will take off knowing I will fly up to weather and then have to wait it out on the ground as it passes through. In dealing with frontal systems and storms in the summer this is pretty common. Sometimes I will have to get a hanger and a hotel room if it's moving slowly!

Though I have plenty of experience, I also won't fly single engine IFR in a well equipped aircraft if low IFR conditions are present or forecast for large areas. I want VFR conditions within at least 1/2 hr of wherever I am. IFR single engine for me usually means ceilings along my route are not less than 1000' ft, good visibility, and I am basically just busting through layers, though once I get my -7 done I will certainly be regularly practicing my approaches to minimums, just in case! Besides, it will be fun to do that anyway, especially with all the new amazing toys I will have in my panel!:)

In any event, as someone else pointed out, you are the pilot in command. Don't spend a lot of time second guessing your decisions, if you were my student, I would be very happy. As you gain more experience you may feel more comfortable about "taking a look" - or not, it's no matter one way or the other. The main point I try to make to students is, always leave yourself a way out, a plan B, even if it means spending money on airline tickets. If you reconcile yourself to this before you go, its easier and you are not as likely to tempt fate by pushing the weather. Money in a bank account can be replaced, you and your loved ones can't.
 
Nice Thread

Seen many a news articles about "A small plane crashed & ____ dead."
Still waiting to read the one titled "Pilot makes cautious / safe decision & feels bad about possibly letting down son."
 
I just read your initial post and will comment on this:

"The regret that I missed one more game of catch with my son."

Several years ago a non-RV departed the Las Cruces airport during a LOE fly in and flew into an isolated thunderstorm. Two guys died. Reportedly the pilot was on his way home since his young daughter's birthday was that day.

Not long ago four people died when a guy took of with horrific crosswinds in New Mexico.

We can go on and on. You will have plenty of games of catch with your boy and possibly grand kids.

I have had plenty of No GO and weather diversions since I got the RV.

NEVER EVER let the sort of pressures I sense in your posting drive you to fly when you should stay on the ground.
 
NEVER EVER let the sort of pressures I sense in your posting drive you to fly when you should stay on the ground.

I think we all agree with this when the weather decision is black and white, but I get the sense that we're discussing those weather situations that are not so clear cut. The salient point of this thread comes down to exploring ones personal limits... "...Am I too conservative..."
 
As pilots we are trained and required to execute good judgement. Don't EVER feel guilty about making a judgement decision (any judgement decision) that will reduce risking people's lives!!!!!!!! YOU, (and only you) are the pilot in command... People will appreciate and respect you for good decisions.

Victor ;)
 
I think we all agree with this when the weather decision is black and white, but I get the sense that we're discussing those weather situations that are not so clear cut. The salient point of this thread comes down to exploring ones personal limits... "...Am I too conservative..."

The complicating factor is the time frame here. The trip was canceled on a Monday night based on two computer models -- European and the U.S. -- showing the storm system moving into the Plains on Thursday, effecting the route of flight on Friday and possibly on into the weekend.

As you probably saw, the storm was as advertised.

While I understand, and generally agree with, the notion of "going up and taking a look," the real issue was the decision not to make the trip in the first place TO the point from where we'd be departing based on the route HOME, not the original destination.

I know that the weather is often not correct, but in this case, the outlook weather was a pretty short time frame.
 
And the other side of the coin, there is not always another day.... I still did the right thing, and I have a VM from my Dad that I still have saved where he tells me I did the right thing.

My Mom called August 8th, 2012 at 9:24 AM. The call lasted 34 seconds: Come home, your Dad died.

He had not been sick, I had talked to him a week earlier and he sounded fine. The next few days were basically a blur. A four-hour drive to get home, the crushing emptiness of walking in the door knowing he was not there. Guilt and regret came in waves over the next four days. The guilt of not seeing him enough, the regrets of memories never to be made, new jokes never to be told. I have this sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that these regrets will not ever go away.

My last conversation with him just 8 days before, I told him that I had planed to fly my little light sport aircraft the two hours North to visit him that next weekend. He was excited about it- He earned his pilots license in 1963 at 23 years old. He flew 600 hours before my older brother Steve was born. His logbook entries slowed when my brother was born, and pretty much stopped when I came along.

Even without him flying, my father still loved flight. Steve always built model cars, but for as long as I can recall Dad always gave me model planes. When I was old enough, my Dad got me a little control line model plane with a highly unreliable two stroke .049 engine that we spent much more time trying to start, than we ever flew. This little noisemaker was supposed to fly in a small circle with the ‘pilot’ at the center using two lines to control the elevator. When we did get the little engine started my Dad would let it go and I would try desperately to keep it from crashing. I failed almost every flight in-spite of my father yelling advice over the ear splitting shriek of the little engine. Later when I turned 13 these crash filled circles morphed into larger planes flown by radio control. My Dad built my first one on the dining room table; he used my Mom’s household iron to tightly shrink the plastic covering… She was not amused. Most weekends he would drive me out to the miniature airport. He would sometimes stay and watch, sometimes work from the car, and sometimes run errands while I learned to ‘fly’. At the time, I pretty much lived for these weekends.

By 21 I had started learning to fly real planes, and 43 hours later I had my license. I took my Dad flying two weeks after I got my ticket and on my first landing with him, I *greased* the landing - It was so smooth, the only way you knew we were on the ground was that you could hear the wheels rolling on the tarmac. I turned to him full of pride and his remark, "Bet you can't do that again".

Then, like my father, my life got in the way. It was work and cost not kids that kept me on the ground. But my Dad and I talked about flying all those years and we talked about buying a light sport plane. But work had me move over and over again and we just could not start the project. I finally was moved again, this time only about 4 hours from my Dad and I saved up and bought the very same model of plane we had talked about building together. We talked about getting him current and flying around together.

I had flown up once to see him, but the weather was rolling in and Dad and I agreed that I should take off and head home. As I flew home I had to divert for some storms and I managed to push the plane into the hangar right before the storm hit. I didn’t get to take him up on that trip, and work and weather kept me from making another trip to include the trip we talked about in our last phone call. Now he would never fly in ‘our’ plane. They always say that it is the regrets that hurt the most – Its true.

After the funeral I stopped by the airport on the way back home. Storm clouds all around, but not any in the vicinity. I rolled the plane out, fired it up, and it was some of the smoothest air I can remember. I had my wife in the back seat, but I unplugged my mike from the intercom and talked to my Dad. I apologized for not having taken the time and flown up to see him so I could of had that flight with him.... I guess I am lucky; I did get to fly with my Dad a few times, 3.6 hours total, even if it was 17 years ago.

As I was talking to him, the sun came out. I realized that throughout my life my Dad had been there, supporting my dream of aviation, encouraging my efforts and enjoying my successes. 30 minutes later, I pushed the plane back into the hangar and read my old logbook entries of when I did get to fly with my father... As I logged the half hour, I logged it as dual received.
 
The complicating factor is the time frame here...

Understood. If you HAVE to get somewhere at a certain time (the return trip, in this case), then the cancellation was a practical matter - not aversion to risk. I think we all know that we can't count on little airplanes as 100% reliable modes of transportation. Sometimes the best info available still doesn't cut it, so your only option is to scrub the mission

The point being, don't beat yourself up because the only info you had to go on was a long range forecast.
 
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