Ok, discard Nigel's report, and consider timing loss with a known cause, the arcing alternator B-lead.
At first, it was claimed that V40 would have prevented the issue, but that was obvious nonsense, as noted by this gentleman...
...and recognized by the manufacturer:
So why is it relevant to this particular exercise? The P-mag is unique, in that it's the only ignition which allows the user to insert the body and mesh the drive gear at random, then write a TDC position reference electronically. It's a wonderful feature as it relates to installation and inspection, as it makes timing a P-mag dirt simple. However, all design is the art of compromise. The same feature is an Achilles heel; the easy-to-set TDC position can also be reset
. V-40 (and I suspect other patches too) is a example of an attempt to prevent unintended reset given a specific condition. The case of the arcing B-lead is an example of timing reset caused by a less predictable input, so it's not likely to be fixed with a software patch.
All other ignitions physically
reference crankshaft TDC to the ignition. As such, installation requires physical alignment of trigger and crankshaft position. Losing that reference requires outright mechanical failure. It is slightly more difficult to install, but more reliable in service.
I've attempted to run though some basic "what if" analysis, which as Mike pointed out, would be followed by an estimate of probability. It does not appear we're going to be able to complete that examination due to lack of information. Frankly, it makes no personal difference to me. I'm just trying to lead the conversation back toward a logical estimation of reliability.
I will say this, based on reported field experience. The major P-mag risk is random timing reset. The major risk with other systems is simply no spark. Random timing can take out an engine. No spark merely means soldiering on with the other ignition.
The architecture which allows random timing reset due to outside factors has nothing to do with the P-mag's significant benefit, its internal power supply. A system with a hard TDC reference and internal power generation would be a heck of an ignition...
but that's not what we have here.
Two things, and I'm outta here. One, it is easy to make sparks. The issue is the timing
of those sparks. Two, all waste spark systems use the other plug in the paired coil as the return path for the secondary; that's why there is a wasted spark. It is very
unlikely that the high voltage secondary is part of the ground path for control electronics.