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Regret and the 'no go' decision

LettersFromFlyoverCountry

Well Known Member
(Reposted from Letters From Flyover Country)

Sometimes, I think I'm too risk-averse to be a pilot.

For the past six weeks, I've been planning a trip to Arizona with my youngest (25) son. We're both big Cleveland Indians fans and wanted to spend a couple of days watching the Tribe. My friend, Darwin Barrie, offered to put the RV-7A up at his airpark and give us his truck for the week to use.

And so began weeks of planning for the trip, which -- for me -- consists of six weeks of worrying, playing "what if?". I pored over the charts and established the best route. I consulted with Darwin on the best approach into Phoenix' airspace. I'd go to sleep at night thinking of the approach and memorizing every mile of the route, the fuel stops, and the time.

Last fall, I met a gentleman who was kayaking from the Northwest Angle of Minnesota to Key West. He'd started in June and hoped to reach Key West on New Year's Eve. He actually reached it last week. But when I talked to him at the time, I was planning a trip to Massachusetts. "I'm a little nervous about it," I admitted.

"If you're not a little nervous," he said, "you're not going far enough."

As I prepared for this trip, I heard his words. Constantly. The nervousness was fine, I told myself, because I'm going far enough. It's good.

About two weeks ago, the weather discussions at the National Weather Service regional sites (they reallyare very interesting and informative reads) began to encompass the departure weather -- today -- and more "worrying" as the "what ifs" grew to encompass every section of the route, weatherwise. What are my limits? What are my alternates? How prepared am I to make the no-go decision?

Of course, it's impossible to know for sure that far out what the weather will be, which necessitates more "what ifs."

Although a blizzard came through Minnesota yesterday, I was fairly confident we'd be able to get out of here this morning. (I'd already scrapped a Monday departure last week on the basis of the the weather data I'd been gathering for a week and analyzing every four or five hours). The gusty winds were to die down to about 20 knots this morning, I checked the airport yesterday and they'd done a good and quick job removing the blowing snow, and the sky was supposed to be scattered clouds at 2500 feet. It would be cold, but I was fairly sure we'd survive the three-hour trip in high headwinds to Lexington, Nebraska, our first fuel stop, and be able to get out of there before the winds were forecast to pick up there. The rest of the trip looked weather-good. I started dreaming about being one of those people who posts trip pictures on Van's Air Force.

I'd earlier been concerned about getting Patrick home in time for a shift he had scheduled on Sunday, and a test at school (he's in the nursing program) for Monday. So I bought a $550 refundable one-way ticket on Southwest from Phoenix to Minneapolis for Saturday for him, and figured if need be, I could stay in Phoenix for a few extra days and fly back alone. But at least he'd be back in time.

Otherwise, we'd plan to fly back on Friday, maybe Saturday if the weather was good from there to here.

He was excited for the trip, especially with temperatures here 20-30 degrees below normal for this time of year. All of Minnesota is experiencing seasonal disorder, as is custom, and a couple days of watching baseball was the perfect antidote. It would have been a fabulous flight down and a great experience between father and son to remember forever.
This is why I built an airplane.

I spent yesterday on final preparations for the plane, plugging in the engine heater, organizing what's staying and what's going, and trying to figure out how close to gross weight we'd be. As it turns out, I learned just how quickly two 170-pound pilots and baggage can exceed the 1800-pound limit on an RV-7A with a full load of fuel. It'd be close.

Late last evening, flight plans filed, plane ready, peanut-butter sandwiches and water packed, I made one last weather check before a go-no go decision, only to discover the weather discussions from the National Weather Service sites from the Texas panhandle (Dalhart, TX was a fuel stop) all the way to Minneapolis began mentioning precipitation and clouds for Thursday into the weekend, where they had mentioned none previously.

But it's impossible to know at this early stage what sorts of clouds and what kind of precipitation. Steady rain? Showers? Low clouds? High clouds? Clouds I can snake around or clouds that keep me on the ground? Clouds that beckon me to fly scud? There was no way to know for sure. The two main computer models -- one from the U.S. and one from Europe -- disagreed on what might happen. The European model was suggesting the system would stall over the Dakotas through Monday. The U.S. model said might not.

Now I had to make a decision: Which one to believe? In previous analysis of weather discussions, I felt the European computer models were more accurate, so I chose to believe them.

Then I thought about trying to fly home, and running into ice, or low clouds and not being able to find a way through. I started to think about Get Home-itis, when the urge to get home forces pilots to make bad decisions. I thought about forcing Patrick to get in a plane on Friday to try to make it home before things (maybe) got bad -- and then getting stranded in Kansas, with him missing his work shift and his test -- rather than waiting a day and putting him safely on an airliner, and I thought about me sitting in Phoenix waiting for springtime weather to be good from Phoenix to Minneapolis, paying for a motel, not getting back to work on time at a place that isn't as excited about what I do as it once seemed to be.

And then I called the trip off.

I called Patrick and told him. "It's OK," he said, although I knew it wasn't. He's already scheduled the days off. He'd already given his car away to his girlfriend to use because hers is on a bad tire. He'd already packed. He was looking forward to the experience, and somewhere along the trip, I was going to teach him the ins and outs of flying.

His goal on the trip was to play catch with his father on the hill beyond the right field at the Indians' park in Goodyear (even though they'd be on the road for the two games we'd watch, but the Reds play at the same park). "Don't forget to pack your glove and ball," he said a few days ago.

The day this morning dawned bright and sunny, though cold and windy. But it's a beautiful day to fly. "All that worry, and for what?" I said to myself as I set one foot out of the bed, and then another. My back was aching from yesterday's snow shoveling. I read the paper then sat in the rocking chair by the front window, bathing in the sun, and found myself thinking, "I'd be landing in Lexington right now."

And that's my punishment for the next few days. I'll watch the Indians game tomorrow and think "I'd be there right now," and even worse, I know my son will be doing that too. I will spend them wondering if I made a bad call.

Although I'm hoping a blizzard comes flying through the Plains on Friday on into Monday, it wouldn't surprise me if the weather turns out to be flyable, which will be an even greater punishment -- the knowledge that we could've done the trip and we missed out on a great experience. Together.

We're taught early in our flight training to use good judgment, and that many pilots have regretted trying to fly when they shouldn't.

But they don't tell you about the other kind of regret. The regret that maybe I was too cautious.

The regret that I missed one more game of catch with my son.
 
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Put your toes in

Hi Bob,

Nice perspective about judgement and knowing your own limitations.

I can't and wont' find fault with anything you said and it's absolutely your decision and you should abide by it once it is made.

I would offer however, that in order to actually get your confidence up in you and your plane you are going to have to just jump on in and try the water. They say judgment is what you get with bad experience, but you have to get the experience.

Long term weather forecasts are iffy at best. What I like to do if I have even half a chance at completing a trip is go have a look see. You can always turn back, stay longer, or with the speed of these little airplanes, go a different way.

I know carrying your son put extra pressure on you, but you had a way to get him SAFELY home in time with the airlines and you had extra time IF the weather bottomed out.

Like I said, I will NOT second guess a pilot for his own decision about HIS safety and comfort level, but I would encourage you to get a little nervous.
 
This should be posted in the "Safety" forum. Excellent summary of the decision points leading up to a safe decision to stay on the ground, and fly another day.

There's a large difference between "wanting" to go somewhere, and "needing" to go somewhere. If I "need" to be there (ie. for work, etc.) i'll go commercially.
 
Grapefruit league

Bob, we need to convert you to being a Cardinals fan, or at the very least, a fan of the Grapefruit league. The distances are about the same from Minneapolis to Phoenix and from Minneapolis to West Palm Beach, but at least you wouldn't have to fly over those big mountains. :)
 
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Options

Weather will always be a guesstimate. About the only surefire way to resolve your concerns would be to build extra days into the schedule to handle the "what ifs". The other thing I do in long range flight planning is to plan alternate routes. Going from CA to PA I always have a central, northern and southern route planned - at least to the stages o identifying fuel stops.

The RV provides amazing flexibility. Last year weather drove me to a further north route than I planned - but using Foreflight, Weathermeister and XM weather out of Colorado Springs, I was able to skirt the weather to the north (keep the green stuff to the right of the 496 screen) and select one o the many airports in Iowa for refueling. Had never even heard of Ft. Dodge - but there I was.

Force yourself to be realistic but cautious. As Dave Kerzy, RV guy and former U-2 test pilot asked me when I was discussing avionics capabilities for my -8A: "Do you realize how many hotel rooms you can book for the price of some of those all-weather avionics capabilies?"
 
I struggle with this often. I have learned to try not to build too much anticipation before a trip. It is hard to think you let someone down by cancelling a trip so I make sure there is a healthy dose of "we'll see" involved in the planning.

I am going through this right now with my father. Every year I call him from Sun N Fun and tell him how fantastic it is and how he should come with me some time and it looks like this will be the year we do it. I explained to him that I have flown to SNF for the past 6 years and have never had to cancel due to weather, but usually have to modify my plans a little because of it. So, he just bought his airline ticket from D.C. to Atlanta with the understanding that if we can't go, then at least he gets to spend a few days with us in Georgia. Even though I am trying to downplay my excitement, I am really buzzed about him coming along this year! (I hope he doesn't snore :eek:)

I agree with the "let's go up and take a look approach" and if you happen to need to land somewhere other than your destination, then it is all part of the adventure.

Most "normal" people don't realize how important weather is to us. They think we can just hop in and travel somewhere. Those closest to us know differently.
 
planning

Bob,

I plan my trip and then wait for the time to leave. If things look acceptable, I take off. If there is any hint of doubt, I stay on the ground and accept the way things turned out. Also, if things go bad while I am at my destination, I stay until things improve. CAVU is a must, no matter what. I made one mistake fooling with weather about 32 years ago and I told God that if he let me live through it, I would never do it again. I haven't and I'm proud to say that I've enjoyed many beautiful VFR flights since that day.

Don't worry yourself to death about a trip. If the weather is good when you leave, enjoy your flight and consider the weather again when it is time to return. If you're grounded at your destination, enjoy the town and spend the money required to stay and enjoy yourself. The weather will eventually improve for a beautiful flight home. You don't have to leave the ground if the weather is iffy. Home will be there when you get back........just make sure you get back.
 
me too!

Bob, if you're still followin this; you sound almost exactly like me.
...except, I'm still too 'cautious' to even plan a trip like that!
I read about all the guys on here that fly to Argentina like it's a burger run, and it make it sound so simple.
.......but it isn't. You sound like you did all the right things.
I think I may try to tag along on a group trip to get me feet ( wings?) wet on a longer x-country. ....you know, the kind where 4-6 planes all go to some air museum somewhere a day or 2 away.
The guy in the Mooney goes first, and calls back to say there's rain in the pass, or it's bumpy at 10,500, or whatever. The next few guys go, and if it's getting crappy, the fellow in the Champ decides to stay home. That's just how it goes.
After having my plane for 4 years, it may just be my turn to get out of the circuit, and post some nice photos! :)
 
I'm with ya, bro'

I go thru the same mental machinations and planning ... for DAYS ... before a trip. I would have made the same call you did ....and felt exactly the same way after pulling the plug. That's our punishment for being older and a tad more conservative when it comes to safety. In my 20s and 30s I was bulletproof. Not today. :)
 
Never ever kick yourself for making the no-go decision. If at least a few times you don't end up on the ground wishing you were up there, then for sure there will be times when you're up in the air wishing you were on the ground.

That being said, a lot depends on "have to be there". Even United doesn't always get you there, so when you do go the mental attitude should always be that you might end up in a motel room somewhere, maybe for days. Having an instrument rating will make it a little easier but will not change that fact.
 
Choices about Wx

The check-list I always think of when Go, No-go decision comes due to Weather (this is from experience) where:

"Experience comes from making bad choices and sometimes bad choices don't allow the building of experience."

"It is better to be on the ground wishing you where up there- rather than up there wishing you were on the ground!"

"Getting to work on Monday is not THAT important"

"Know your country and Know your OUTS when scud running"
 
Probably a good call

As I sit here in the window seat of a 767-300, from 38,000 feet en route from KSAN to KATL, (thanks to gogoinflight wifi) I haven't seen the grounds in the last two hours and its been a solid layer as far as the eye can see North of me... And now getting bumpy.
 
Good call

Bob,
You know what they say, "time to spare, go by air". I would have likely made the same call. With your son's schedule and uncertain weather, best to err conservative.

My daughter needs to get to Seattle this Summer from Ohio, I considered using the RV, before I dismissed it as too far to go with our lack of a flexible schedule.

I should mention I have an ATP and the bird is instrument capable.

Each trip is different and yours will come. This stuff is supposed to be fun, no need to make more stressful than it has to be.
 
Decision has been made and there is no regret. Now it is time to figure out how to use the time you and your son have and try something interesting locally (driving, flying, ...).
 
I flew a Tomahawk for 10 years, so I could never plan a long trip. The plane was so slow that the weather would change faster than I could get there. The RV is a different story.
The problem with flying is that we mainly do it in isolation. My After my son got his license I had him ride with the ferry pilot from Oragon to NJ when we got our RV. He picked up a lot on the way, which I have in-turn picked up from him. It really expanded my window of capability. CFI's are good, but to learn cross contry flying from one you hav to fly cross country - That is tough to do at $75/hr.
I suggest you find a flying buddy with more experiance than you and take a few trips together.
 
At least for me; go / no-go is an ongoing decision. I've never cancelled a flight more than an hour or two in advance. But, my wife has gotten used to the phrase: "Change of plans!". This can happen during pre-flight, during run-up, and at any point during the flight.

One thing a flight instructor told me is that if I need to be somewhere, don't take your airplane! The airplane is for trips where I have a flexible schedule and am looking for adventure! :D

I've been reading "Weather Flying" by Robert Buck which is an old book given to me by my Grandad (also a pilot). I haven't finished it yet, but I think it has some good advice.

Hope that helps!
 
...I made one mistake fooling with weather about 32 years ago and I told God that if he let me live through it, I would never do it again. I haven't and I'm proud to say that I've enjoyed many beautiful VFR flights since that day...

Now that's a true confession!

How many of us have had similar "near death" experiences and made a secret covenant afterward?

I admit I have...on the way to Oshkosh a few years ago.
 
They often say a long cross country is nothing more than a bunch of short hops strung together.

I have a friend who is comfortable flying in the local area for half the day, but if it comes to keeping the nose pointed in the same direction for a few hours, he can’t make the leap. He often asks if he can follow me when my wife and I take off for the weekend, but never can seem to work up the courage. Weird.

In the case you describe, there is certainly plenty of evidence that pushing on in the face of deteriorating weather "just to take a look" is not the wisest move, but that doesn’t mean you have to see a perfect weather forecast across your entire route of flight, either. As long as you can safely make it to the next airport, what's the harm in pushing on? If you get stuck halfway and spend the night in a seedy motel or in the fuel pump shack somewhere, so be it.

I think many of us demand a "perfect" flight, when "safe, but a little messy" will work just fine.
 
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Good job Bob. You had enough things (schedule pressure) driving your decision that were not strictly aviation related that "No Go" was the right call here.

When planning a long trip, the return is always the problematic dilemna - it is too far out for the forecasts to be useful (we never trusted a Shuttle landing forecast more than two days out) but if your job or other life events demand that you be back on time, the only way to be sure is to schedule an airline ticket for EVERYONE that needs to be back and make sure that you can go back for the airplane later. And yes, that is expensive. Never put yourself in a position where you have to make aeronautical decisions based on extra cost or schedule pressure. I could argue that (among other things), schedule pressure cost this country two space shuttle orbiters and their crews. It is serious business.

I just got back to our cabin after driving to San Diego and back to visit my dentist (alright, she's also our niece, and I had to visit the family too!). It's a short 40 minute flight from Big Bear, to San Diego, but I needed to be back by noon today, and the forecasts were for low IFR in the morning down there. I didn't want to be tempted to make a bad decision. By the time you add up opening and closing hangars, flying an out-of-the-way IFR route down and back, snagging a rental car, strange airport delays....the door to door three hour drive was probably only a little less than an hour longer than flying each way. So I removed the weather worry and joined the rest of the population of the State of California on the higway. Nice views of the solid cloud deck in the LA basin from the Rim of the World Highway. No regrets.

For you, I might suggest a more relaxed approach to long cross-country flying. Set aside a week and some tentative destinations. Throw in a small pack of clothes and set out with no firm plan. Let yourself get stuck somewhere - you'll find it's not too bad, and you'll get used to it. You're afraid of the unknown out there (we all are), so go find out about being "on the road" with a small airplane without the presure of meeting someone else's schedule or a return date. Yeah, that's easier when you're retired....

Paul
 
Bob,

Good call...I have done it a couple times now. Once I was glad I stayed on the ground since the weather turned out rough. Once I was mad at myself for not going because it ended up nice.

Best thing to do is once you make the no-go decision is to just forget about it and move on. Don't do like I do and hyper analyze it to death. That just makes you crazy....

I agree with the others however. Take it in small steps and that will allow you to know and understand your limits. Sneak up on them. There is no reason to rush it. Shorter trips first, working up to the longer ones.
 
I will join in the voices that are saying "We have been there too."

You are not a lone ranger in this, buddy. Its a fact of flying life.

I think many of us get wound up tight about weather in the days before a well anticipated trip. I certainly do. And having to cancel for return trip weather predictions is always gut wrenching. Its much easier to cancel by looking outside and saying NFW am I flying today. Much harder to cancel when the day is flyable.

Don't beat yourself up Bob. You appear to have what I have come to call "Get there itis remorse". Itis wants to kill you but since it can't, it makes you feel bad for making the right decision. You are normal...and you made the decision to fly again another day.
 
One of the gems.

Thank you, Bob, for that wonderful read.

My take from this is you might have taught your son some valuable things, by NOT going, that you don’t give yourself enough credit for. I saw in that piece a wonderful analogy to life itself. Curveballs come and you make the best choice you can, given the intel you have. I enjoyed every word of it…

Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to print your article so my 12-yr old son can read it when he gets home from school.


PS: Would one of the thousands of airline types that read this site please give Bob and his son a couple buddy passes to a game!
 
Good Job!

Mr. Collins:

1. Congratulations! You are on the ground; your son, you, and your airplane are well; you have realtime reports the Wx was poor. Put another way, you are able to express regret which is a Good Thing; had you pushed on, we might all writing about what a Great Guy Bob was...

2. You write well, articulating what many (most?) of us have done and felt. Ok, it is your day job, but you still do it well.

3. Remember that you did this one well - bank the "good example" - and put a toe in the water. Leave your self many outs, and go play without any pressure.
 
Go Stby?

PS: Would one of the thousands of airline types that read this site please give Bob and his son a couple buddy passes to a game!

Unfortunately buddy passes aren't what they used to be. With "yield management," all flights are full especially going to PHX in the winter. Bob has a better chance of getting there in his plane than going standby. And even if he could get on, more times than not buddy passes cost more than a discounted ticket. The great perk employees have is no more.

"Friends don't let friends fly on buddy passes."

ex AZ/MN commuter
 
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Bob,

I plan my trip and then wait for the time to leave.

Yes, this.

"Time to spare? Go by air." If you build enough fat into the schedule to accommodate delays due to weather, then you can fly pretty much anywhere, nailing in the precise departure and arrivals times almost at the last minute.

Weather forecasting is an imprecise art. The weather 7 days out is invariably hopeless, perhaps 50% accuracy. Where the forecasters get it right, they do so by being vague (a bit like horoscopes :)

3 days out is enough to plan on. The day before is almost enough to commit.

On a long trip I'll plan fuel-stop by fuel-stop, with alternates along the way. I might be flying half way across the country today, but I'm only flying to the next AVGAS bowser in the next 3 hours, so that's the only bit of weather that matters. If I land, refuel, assess, and can't make the next leg, that's okay, there's always a motel nearby and I've always built time into my schedule for it.

I've not had to cancel a trip yet. I've had to delay them, and I've shortened one of them so I could depart before the weather moved in, but I've never called one off, and I've never had to put myself into a position where I felt bad about weather minima due to a crappy deadline. If I had to I would, but by allowing [/timing/] to be imprecise, cancellation can be made pretty rare.

- mark
 
Add me to the list of "don't sweat it" folks. Fight another day, live and learn, better to be on the ground and wishing you were in the air than vice versa... and whatever other cliches there are.

Making the "no-go" desicion should (or will become) a satisfying feeling. Knowing that you made the right choice. The quandry there is that comes from having made the wrong choice before!


Like toobuilder said, you can always dip your toe in. Go out and take a look, knowing that you can always turn around to the VFR weather you just came from. If you try this on a trip though, be very cognizant of the feeling to go "just a little further" and find yourself in a corner all of a sudden. Turn around as soon as you need too, and accept that you've learned just a little bit more.
 
Me too...

In 1000 hrs I've cancelled several VFR flights and once rented a car to get home from Palo Alto only to drive it back 2 days later to pick up my plane.

But I really have to say I HATE it when I call off a flight and then watch the fog/clouds part for blue skies ..... from my car.

As you say, just part of the deal.
 
Hey Bob - Being a Reds fan, I offer this perspective with a grain of salt..... You obviously made the right decision. You and your son will have another chance to spend truly wonderful time together. I have gone through a similar angst several times in flying to visit our daughter in Austin - about half of your really long trip. One of those times we encountered unforcast weather about half way to Austin (from Cincinnati) that caused us to land and consider our alternatives. What I decided to do, after studying the weather unhurriedly on the ground was to take small steps to continue our journey. Kind of like building a plane. You don't build a plane.... you build a tail, then a couple wings, then a fuselage, etc... I figured I could make it safely VFR to an airport about 30 miles away. When I got there if the weather looked like something I could deal with VFR, I'd continue to my second airport 50 miles further, and so on. I eventually picked my way through an area of marginal weather - safely because I had an out - and made it to Austin just a little late. I had my wife with me and didn't want to scare her away from flying with me in the future, so her comfort level was my primary concern. We had a great flight together, got to spend some time analyzing things, and got to our destination just slightly behind flying Delta.

You were smart the way you planned your trip. You could gamble with a wasted day getting out there and you left yourself an out for decision making on the return trip with that airline ticket for your son. That was good planning.
 
I've cancelled trips and known it was a good decision afterwards. I've cancelled trips and questioned myself for days. I've also completed trips that looked dubious and make the 180 on trips that started out as "piece of cake".

It is all part of flying little airplanes.

My strategy after 500+ hours of VFR X/C time is that I try to remain flexible in my start time. I may plan to leave on (say) Wednesday, but I pack and have everything ready to go on Tuesday, so if the weather Gods decide to block me on Wednesday but leave the door open on Tuesday, I go on Tuesday.

Also, I'll go right up to questionable weather, land, check weather, and go-around the weather, wait a day (or whatever) until it passes, or I'll do the 180 and go home. Lots of options, the only unacceptable one is to hurt myself.

Years ago I convinced the folks I work for that flying is important to me and that from time to time, I'll get stuck "on the road" for a day or so. I've taught them that it is better to be a day late than risk life and limb.

And remember, many times the journey is more interesting than the destination.
 
Flight planning from a winter environment to summer on the same flight is the most difficult flight/weather planning to do. It has proved time and time again to be our most difficult XC trips we have made. Weather slots for the flight could be less than a day in time to be able to make it through or not. It can then be bad for days in between. Mountains don't help:rolleyes:

It is very important as others have mentioned to NOT have a return schedule date. If you have that situation, especially in winter, your best decision is the one you made. Good on ya.

We always figure on each trip we will get stuck somewhere for days, it has yet to happen but we expect/plan for it on every trip. The weather plans our trip. We may leave early or late because of it, but it so much better traveling on a great VFR day. On those days, there is no better way to travel.:)
 
Bob,
You made the right decision. So you missed a game of catch with your son. Big deal. At least you guys can still play a game of catch. If you had gone, and the weather had turned sour, and you had to put your son on a plane or you made a decision to try and push through...you guys may both have made headlines. I was thinking of Luke Bucklin with Sierra Bravo and his three sons (may they rest in peace) who perished after making the wrong decision to fly when all forecasted information and flight service was telling him not to. The beauty of the decision you made is you have the ability now to mull it over. Had a bad decision been made you might not have that privilege. Now the key is, don't let this decision make you say "Last time they forecasted this it didn't turn out this way" the next time faced with a similar circumstance. Be consistent in analyzing the data you have and fly within your limits.
 
To err on the side of caution and make a "no-go" decision is always the correct decision. No need to second guess that.
 
LettersFromFlyoverCountry said:
Sometimes, I think I'm too risk-averse to be a pilot.

I think we all think this sometimes, but the idea is sort of ludicrous. Tell someone you just met that you fly around in a little 2-seat airplane that YOU built from a kit. Then ask them if they think you are too risk averse.

LettersFromFlyoverCountry said:
I'd earlier been concerned about getting Patrick home in time for a shift he had scheduled on Sunday, and a test at school (he's in the nursing program) for Monday. So I bought a $550 refundable one-way ticket on Southwest from Phoenix to Minneapolis for Saturday for him, and figured if need be, I could stay in Phoenix for a few extra days and fly back alone. But at least he'd be back in time.

This is great risk management, and I had never thought of it before reading some posts on VAF. I just had to use it yesterday, from Phoenix, for my wife. She had to be back for work at 8AM on Tuesday and the forecast winds for Denver on Monday were outside my comfort range (and the bumps would have really irritated her), so I delayed the return trip.

The regret started when I looked at a METAR at about 2PM yesterday and one of the Denver airports was reporting calm winds. CALM! The forecasts were 25G40. I felt a little better when a co-worker in Denver reported that the winds were actually "wicked."

I delay so often that my wife was actually surprised that we left the day we planned, last Friday. Anyway, I survived another day (alone) with the in-laws and made it home safe today with (the wiener) dog as my co-pilot.
 
Stop and consider what we would all be posting and reading if you had launched and it turned out bad.

My 22 year old daughter and I are planning a similar trip when she graduates college in May. From here in Arkansas to Tucson and then to San Luis Obispo. I've got a great IFR capable RV-6A and a current ticket but like you (and many others I'm learning) I have always come back to the question "am I too worried?? too cautious??" Maybe, maybe not.

My wife and I took the plane to Orlando last month to visit our son and had to come back a day early. I was debating back and forth about leaving as planned or going a day early when we knew the weather was good, watching the weather on the return and finally she reminded me "when we bought this plane you said you would never push it, why are you now waffling?" That pretty much sealed it.
 
Weather Happens!

My wife and I flew from Huntsville AL to Tahlequah OK, in a C-172 "slow machine", to visit some friends that had moved there. The flight in was great, made a fuel stop somewhere in Arkansas and landed on a sunny day with a t-shirt on in OK. The next day it snowed 12+ inches. We were stuck for a couple days longer than expected as the snow just kept coming. I watched the weather system slowly move westward and as soon as Memphis went VFR we took off to head home. I figured we will see how far we can make it back, but if needed we can stay in Memphis. Sure enogh we caught up with the weather at Memphis, landed, stayed the night and enjoyed the little adventure we were having. We finished the flight home the next day.

It was a fun trip and now we have a great story. The anxiety of being "stuck" somewhere diminished after this trip and now every trip we take, we take in stride. I've canceled trips, but usually I delay departure. Worrying about the flight back home before you've left home I have found to be fruitless. Although planning for a plan B is an absolute in my book.

Good work on the go-no-go decision but don't let that deter you from trying again.
 
Still play catch?

If you both have the day off still, find an indoor sports park somewhere in MN and go play that game of catch together, or work on a project in the basement, or something . . .
 
1) flexible schedule, check. I love the friends don't let friends fly standby thing. I mean, I have standby privileges and consider flying an rv similar or better. Sometimes the weather sucks sometimes the plane is full, it's about the same to me. It is gut wrenching either way I hate the unknown but you have to live with it. My last trip I got home a day late and it turned out being the best day of the vacation.

2) it's true that you can always turn around divert etc but I have discovered personally its hard to make those choices well in the air unless you have preset personal minimums- example- how low a ceiling will I permit myself to scud run under ? What clouds will I allow myself to fly over ? ( how thick, how broken, etc). I have built some good experience and confidence, but sometimes I look back and wonder if I pushed it too much ? If I had personal minimums set I think it would be less grey. You can get away with a lot, until you don't. Does that makes sense ?
 
Second guessing and Spring training!

First of all, I live about 10 miles from the spring training fields in Goodyear. If you would like, I could go to the game for you. Just kidding.

As far as second guessing, my opinion is that airplanes are very unforgiving of mistakes. I always think about safety before I launch on any trip.

I used to "commute" between Laredo, TX and Southern California for work from time to time. The weather in south Texas can change quickly as can the weather in Southern California certain times of the year. I would always break the trip up in 3 hours legs and make a "go, no go" decision for each leg. That way I wouldnt push myself into an unsafe condition. That seemed to work for me. I spent four extra days in Laredo once trying to get out and waiting for the T-storms and overcast to clear out.

I was driving to Laredo once and the weather was very bad (heavy rain and fog), as I looked ahead a Lancair flew past me going the opposite direction just above the powerlines and in between the lanes on I-10. He was less than 100 ft AGL scud running.

I think of that and wonder what the pilot was thinking and to be honest I wonder if he is still alive.

There is not a trip that is worth exchanging your life for.

My 2 cents worth..... Sorry to ramble on.....
 
Go-nogo

Bob
Winter flying is iffy at best.
Growing up in the mid-west and learning to fly in Wis. I did some foolish
things, like flying a c-150 from OSH to Sioux City in Feb. for a blind date...

But knowing our limitations is a virtue, not a fault. We need to work gradually into the cross-country capabilities of our super-ships.

I applaud your caution. Next time you will find more congenial conditions.
What goes around comes around....

There is an old adage, "Fly if you've got the time!"
Jim Frisbie
RV-9A
(4 trips from OR to the mid West.... plus others)
 
Good call

After I made a similar call one day and speaking to a wise pilot he told me this.........

I would much rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air than being in the air and wishing I was on the ground!

I will always remember that!
 
Go/Nogo

After having the RV for a couple of years, I've realized that all "Go" decisions need to be re-evaluated for the duration of any trip. Prior to departure, I consider weather forecasts as informational, but not specifically a reason to cancel. At any time prior to takeoff, I could discover an issue that might cause me to delay or scrub. Once in flight, Go / Nogo has to be considered. You might find clouds or a local thundershower at your destination that makes you fly another 60 miles to an airport with fuel just before the sun sets.

I guess my point is that a Go decision is never the final Go decision, and I am ready to change that to a nogo at any point I run out of options that will let me continue the mission with a safe probable outcome.

I don't ever let a passenger influence this process, and I manage this by having frank discussions with anyone I take along that hasn't flown with me before. I always make it clear that we could conceivably end up:
1. cancelling the flight altogether
2. changing the timing or destination of our itenerary
3. very late coming home, need to rent a car, or purchase a plane ticket home.

I've often found that this type of discussion will help illustrate my concern for the safety of the flight, and to this point, my passengers have been understanding when I explain that there is a change to our original plans.

Don
 
So much of the "print" aviation media approaches these issues from the perspective of someone who made the mistake and hopes that their error will prevent someone else doing the same... those "I learned from that" type of columns. They are effective but I do appreciate reading about someone making the right call and their feelings of doubt and and perhaps some anguish. When one day my plane is built and I am planning similar flights I have no doubt this positive example will linger in my mind - thx

BTW first read this on your blog Bob, great place for some interesting, and occasionally thought provoking, reading when not browsing on this forum or in the garage building!

Cheers
 
Bob, it snowed here in KC today, and supposed to snow off/on all weekend with up to 9 inches here in Lenexa, KS. You might have made it okay, but if you're like me you fly because it's fun. If I have to worry and fret over how to make it to the next fuel stop before weather goes IMC, then it's not fun anymore. I got caught in bad weather many years ago and learned a valuable lesson -- severe weather always wins. I made a somewhat bad decision one day and was very lucky to get out of it, or perhaps had some divine intervention. Some day when you and your son finally get to make the trip in severe VFR conditions you won't regret your decision one bit.

The wife and I had the same idea about flying to Surprise, AZ to watch the Royals in their spring training this week, but dang airline prices were jacked up in March because of Spring break (I guess). Next year after I'm retired maybe we'll just drive! ;)
 
So this is the day I would've tried to fly. As it turned out, IFR conditions persist from North Dakota, across Nebraska, Missouri, and down to the Gulf with icing to the surface along the most of the viable routes.
 
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