This last weekend presented some interesting weather challenges down here in the southeast and central portions of Texas, and while I was cruising along on top avoiding weather cells using my XM, I realized that there was also a good lesson in risk management to be learned - or reinforced, as the case may be. The lesson? Just because you ?get away with? a difficult risk call one time does not make that same situation safer the next time. It?s the old Russian Roulette comparison ? if you spin the revolver?s chamber after each pull of the trigger, the resulting risk for each pull is the same as it was the last time ? you don?t lower the risk with experience?.and that is an important mind-set to maintain!
The challenge on Saturday resulted from a north/south line of thunderstorms extending from the gulf cost up into (and past) the Dallas/Fort Worth area. I was in Houston, with relatively good weather, trying at first to get to Fort Worth for the Texas RV Fly-in, and after that, to meet Louise in Fredericksburg for a visit to the Hangar Hotel on the airport. I spent the morning and early afternoon sitting at home watching the weather slowly become VFR for Louise?s trip from Carlsbad into the central Texas area, and when she finally made it to KFWS and discovered that the fly-in was a no-go and that she was headed to the Hill Country, I took another look to see when I thought I could find a way through the line. Interestingly enough, it appeared to be getting a bit weaker but broader as it approached the Houston area, and I realized that is was degrading into a widespread area of thunderstorms that was going to make the entire area unflyable. If I was going to go, I needed to stop waiting for it to pass over Houston, and see if there was a way around it.
My break wasn?t hard to spot ? the line extended down to the coast and stopped ? I could see that going down to Matagorda Bay would get me around it. There were even some holes apparent in the radar returns farther north than that, and I considered trying for one of those if I could maintain VFR underneath. With the plan being that I would keep an eye on the XM weather for a retreat to one of the many airports in the Houston/Galveston area, I launched to the southwest. It quickly became apparent that the ?underneath? option was out ? the ceilings were to low and ragged. So while I was still out east of the weather I climbed up above the ?debris layer? of clouds, maintaining good visibility and cloud clearance as I moved down the line to the southwest. Sure enough, as I got down to the beach, I turned westbound around the backside and had clear sailing in nice air all the way to the Hill Country. The plan worked, and I had a nice, legal flight.
Now the caution to take away from this story is that it might not have worked that well. Instead of the line dieing off at the coast, it might have continued to build, and I wouldn?t have gotten around it. That is why I maintained my ?bail-out? options ? always paying as much attention to my retreat plans and the picture on the XM as I did to my Go Forward plans. I always had an out. It is all too easy to gain a measure of false confidence when a plan like this works out. It is only a short step from confidence to overconfidence ? and there-in lies the danger. The next line of storms or area of weather will have it?s own characteristics, and require it?s own unique plan ? including several lines of retreat should things change for the worse. A good case in point was Monday?s return to the Houston area, when the line of weather finally broke enough for Louise and I to get out of Fredericksburg and back to Houston ? but just barely! The Houston area was actually clear of cells when we were ten minutes out, yet by the time we touched down and taxied in to the hangars, an ominous cell had appeared just south of the field, both on the XM and visually. When it opened up, we had seen the last of the sun for the day! The retreat would have put us down in good weather to the west of Houston ? but I was glad that we made it home.
No matter how much experience I get, I always remind myself that past weather performance does not ensure future success. There are good reasons and rationale to use when working with weather to make a flight happen ? but ?I got away with it last time? is not one of those reasons. I can think of numerous accidents where very high time pilots were lost in GA aircraft in bad weather, and I sometimes wonder if they didn?t just figure that they could ?Get Away With It? just one more time?.. In our case, we chose to spend an entire extra day in the Hill Country to wait for better weather for the trip east. As we sat in a metal-roofed restaurant on Sunday night, listening to rain beat away to the point where it drowned out conversation, I was really glad that I was on the ground, wishing I was in the air rather than the other way around!
Fly safe!
Paul
The challenge on Saturday resulted from a north/south line of thunderstorms extending from the gulf cost up into (and past) the Dallas/Fort Worth area. I was in Houston, with relatively good weather, trying at first to get to Fort Worth for the Texas RV Fly-in, and after that, to meet Louise in Fredericksburg for a visit to the Hangar Hotel on the airport. I spent the morning and early afternoon sitting at home watching the weather slowly become VFR for Louise?s trip from Carlsbad into the central Texas area, and when she finally made it to KFWS and discovered that the fly-in was a no-go and that she was headed to the Hill Country, I took another look to see when I thought I could find a way through the line. Interestingly enough, it appeared to be getting a bit weaker but broader as it approached the Houston area, and I realized that is was degrading into a widespread area of thunderstorms that was going to make the entire area unflyable. If I was going to go, I needed to stop waiting for it to pass over Houston, and see if there was a way around it.
My break wasn?t hard to spot ? the line extended down to the coast and stopped ? I could see that going down to Matagorda Bay would get me around it. There were even some holes apparent in the radar returns farther north than that, and I considered trying for one of those if I could maintain VFR underneath. With the plan being that I would keep an eye on the XM weather for a retreat to one of the many airports in the Houston/Galveston area, I launched to the southwest. It quickly became apparent that the ?underneath? option was out ? the ceilings were to low and ragged. So while I was still out east of the weather I climbed up above the ?debris layer? of clouds, maintaining good visibility and cloud clearance as I moved down the line to the southwest. Sure enough, as I got down to the beach, I turned westbound around the backside and had clear sailing in nice air all the way to the Hill Country. The plan worked, and I had a nice, legal flight.
Now the caution to take away from this story is that it might not have worked that well. Instead of the line dieing off at the coast, it might have continued to build, and I wouldn?t have gotten around it. That is why I maintained my ?bail-out? options ? always paying as much attention to my retreat plans and the picture on the XM as I did to my Go Forward plans. I always had an out. It is all too easy to gain a measure of false confidence when a plan like this works out. It is only a short step from confidence to overconfidence ? and there-in lies the danger. The next line of storms or area of weather will have it?s own characteristics, and require it?s own unique plan ? including several lines of retreat should things change for the worse. A good case in point was Monday?s return to the Houston area, when the line of weather finally broke enough for Louise and I to get out of Fredericksburg and back to Houston ? but just barely! The Houston area was actually clear of cells when we were ten minutes out, yet by the time we touched down and taxied in to the hangars, an ominous cell had appeared just south of the field, both on the XM and visually. When it opened up, we had seen the last of the sun for the day! The retreat would have put us down in good weather to the west of Houston ? but I was glad that we made it home.
No matter how much experience I get, I always remind myself that past weather performance does not ensure future success. There are good reasons and rationale to use when working with weather to make a flight happen ? but ?I got away with it last time? is not one of those reasons. I can think of numerous accidents where very high time pilots were lost in GA aircraft in bad weather, and I sometimes wonder if they didn?t just figure that they could ?Get Away With It? just one more time?.. In our case, we chose to spend an entire extra day in the Hill Country to wait for better weather for the trip east. As we sat in a metal-roofed restaurant on Sunday night, listening to rain beat away to the point where it drowned out conversation, I was really glad that I was on the ground, wishing I was in the air rather than the other way around!
Fly safe!
Paul
