Today?s mission was to help my parents return home to Minnesota from their annual winter trip to New Braunfels. They have been spending winters there for many years, but this year, had decided to make it a short visit, so they flew down and rented a car for local transportation. My job was to get out to New Braunfels and drive them to San Antonio for their flight home. The primary plan all along was for me to pop over there in the RV, drive them in to SAT, then drive their rental car back to New Braunfels, turn it in, and fly home ? a quick, easy flight. Of course, the backup plan for weather was the Ford truck?.
Late last week, the forecast for today didn?t look too hot ? predicted rain and cold. The timing was going to be such that my return flight would be after dark. Now I love to fly IFR, and my personal risk level allows single engine IFR. It also allows single engine night flying. But for some reason that might be difficult to quantify, I draw my limit somewhere close to not wanting to fly night, single engine IFR?you just have very, very few options left in that case. (I know other people?s personal limits are set in different places, and this thread is not intended as a place to debate them ? I just though maybe this was a good time to talk about thought processes for dealing with weather!)
So Monday night I was working late, and that gave me a chance to keep close tabs on the weather. Both the reported and forecast weather for Tuesday looked much more promising, with reasonable VFR predicted for the return. Since I needed to be out there by noon, a driving trip required an 0800 departure, so the weather decision had to be made several hours before I would have had to depart by air (about 1000). Typical problem - you have to make a decision without all the information.
When the alarm went off Tuesday morning, I could already hear the rain on the windows. OK, that?s not good. 0700 weather at home base was less than a mile visibility, overcast at a couple hundred feet, and rain ? Low IFR. Conditions were forecast to improve to IFR/MVFR starting about 1000. OK, that might work?.but unfortunately, the forecast was also headed back down for the evening ? MVFR by 1800. That would be cutting things a bit close towards sunset, with not much wiggle room. Now it is never that easy ? this was coastal weather ? moisture coming off the Gulf and interacting with a front. The weather in the Hill Country was MVFR, predicted to be VFR most of the day. But all it would take was a shift of the moisture inland by 100 miles, and I?d be looking at a nasty return trip?.
I called my sister while stuck in rush-hour gridlock on the south side of Houston, rain pouring down, and told her I was doing the Willie Nelson thing?.yup, I was ?On the Road Again?.
I guess that means that this is a ?Non-flying? story?.Doesn?t happen that much anymore with a capable airplane, but sometimes, you?re just stuck on the cusp of the weather, and when a little shift can make it go one way or another, and the trip is important, well?.that trips my risk alarm. I enjoy utilizing the airplane to it?s fullest capability, but there?s just no reason to push it. So I got to spend 8 hours on the road ? at least I had the 396 with XM satellite radio to play with and listen to!
Oh ? the actual weather? Most of the drive back, I could see breaks in the overcast, which I?d estimate was at about 5,000?. The rain had quit in Houston mid-afternoon. I could have made it. But unfortunately, there was no way to know that when I had to make the decision. And that?s why today, not going was (in my book) a good decision. That's one of the primary weather rules I have learned over the years....I try never to use hindsight to second-guess a weather decision. You can?t go back and un-do a bad one! The other point that I try to make when talking about weather decisions with my Flight Controllers is that it's not hard to make a decision on current weather - it's either Go or No Go. It's also not hard to evaluate a forecast. The tough part is always determining the confidence that you have in that forecast. Today was a good case in point - it could have gone either way, so I chose the conservative path.
Fly Safe,
Paul
Late last week, the forecast for today didn?t look too hot ? predicted rain and cold. The timing was going to be such that my return flight would be after dark. Now I love to fly IFR, and my personal risk level allows single engine IFR. It also allows single engine night flying. But for some reason that might be difficult to quantify, I draw my limit somewhere close to not wanting to fly night, single engine IFR?you just have very, very few options left in that case. (I know other people?s personal limits are set in different places, and this thread is not intended as a place to debate them ? I just though maybe this was a good time to talk about thought processes for dealing with weather!)
So Monday night I was working late, and that gave me a chance to keep close tabs on the weather. Both the reported and forecast weather for Tuesday looked much more promising, with reasonable VFR predicted for the return. Since I needed to be out there by noon, a driving trip required an 0800 departure, so the weather decision had to be made several hours before I would have had to depart by air (about 1000). Typical problem - you have to make a decision without all the information.
When the alarm went off Tuesday morning, I could already hear the rain on the windows. OK, that?s not good. 0700 weather at home base was less than a mile visibility, overcast at a couple hundred feet, and rain ? Low IFR. Conditions were forecast to improve to IFR/MVFR starting about 1000. OK, that might work?.but unfortunately, the forecast was also headed back down for the evening ? MVFR by 1800. That would be cutting things a bit close towards sunset, with not much wiggle room. Now it is never that easy ? this was coastal weather ? moisture coming off the Gulf and interacting with a front. The weather in the Hill Country was MVFR, predicted to be VFR most of the day. But all it would take was a shift of the moisture inland by 100 miles, and I?d be looking at a nasty return trip?.
I called my sister while stuck in rush-hour gridlock on the south side of Houston, rain pouring down, and told her I was doing the Willie Nelson thing?.yup, I was ?On the Road Again?.
I guess that means that this is a ?Non-flying? story?.Doesn?t happen that much anymore with a capable airplane, but sometimes, you?re just stuck on the cusp of the weather, and when a little shift can make it go one way or another, and the trip is important, well?.that trips my risk alarm. I enjoy utilizing the airplane to it?s fullest capability, but there?s just no reason to push it. So I got to spend 8 hours on the road ? at least I had the 396 with XM satellite radio to play with and listen to! Oh ? the actual weather? Most of the drive back, I could see breaks in the overcast, which I?d estimate was at about 5,000?. The rain had quit in Houston mid-afternoon. I could have made it. But unfortunately, there was no way to know that when I had to make the decision. And that?s why today, not going was (in my book) a good decision. That's one of the primary weather rules I have learned over the years....I try never to use hindsight to second-guess a weather decision. You can?t go back and un-do a bad one! The other point that I try to make when talking about weather decisions with my Flight Controllers is that it's not hard to make a decision on current weather - it's either Go or No Go. It's also not hard to evaluate a forecast. The tough part is always determining the confidence that you have in that forecast. Today was a good case in point - it could have gone either way, so I chose the conservative path.
Fly Safe,
Paul
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